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Forums - Nintendo - Splatoon Serving Crow A Little Early, Who's Joining For Dinner? (Aka Admiting Your Wrong)

Goodnightmoon on 24 May 2015
spemanig said:
Skullwaker said:

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=7301190

COMG is a preorder store in Japan. 1pt on COMG typically equals 1k in sales for FW, more or less (for Nintendo games, it's usually more)

Also: http://www.amazon.co.jp/gp/bestsellers/videogames


Is it chronicled? I want to see what Pikmin and other games were on it before they launched. From what I remember, it launched with like 90k FW. Would that mean that it probably had 85pts or somethink right before launch?

I'm just trying to understand how legit this is, because it sounds like people are just "Amazon Bestselling" this data to make it seem more relevant than it is by saying it's doing really well on this one, very specific, retailer.

Like when people swore up and down that Bayo2 would be a smash hit because it was doing really well on Amazon's Best Seller list. Like whenever anyone brings up Amazon's Bestseller list as if it is indicative of literally anything.

Splatoon is already ahead of Pikmin 3 , SM3DW and XCX

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=7301202





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Frogger on 24 May 2015
tbone51 said:

Bayo #s WW in shipment are probably about 300k-350k currently, Lifetime no more than 400k (vgc #s are overtracked).Splatoon is going to Ship over B2 lifetime Week 1, possibly outsell it.

as for US pre orders, most dont take it seriously at all for awhile now, its been proven time after time its very unreliable. 

As for your last questions, on COMG Its showing clear signs Splatoon is killing it. No doubt its the same In every other retailer. That said we did get some hints as Splatoon shipments are over 120k and that was 10 days before the game releases.

For comparisons, the 4th/5th highest Shipped games in japan for WiiU are both Pikmin 3/SM3DW and were at 150k-170k Week 1.

Did Nintendo say somewhere that they were shipping 400K copies of Splatoon in preperation of the first week? Am I missing something? I'm not being patronizing. I really feel like I'm missing something. I don't see how anyone realistically would think that Splatoon would come anywhere close to outselling Bayo2 WW in one week.

When have the U.S. preorders been proven unreliable? Like ever?

So, in otherwords, COMG really is Japan's "Amazon Bestsellers." Got it.

Again, didn't Pikmin 3 only hit like 90K in actual it's first week in Japan, then dropped of significantly in sales the weeks following. Not the most secure example.



Skullwaker on 24 May 2015
spemanig said:

Is it chronicled? I want to see what Pikmin and other games were on it before they launched. From what I remember, it launched with like 90k FW. Would that mean that it probably had 85pts or somethink right before launch?

I'm just trying to understand how legit this is, because it sounds like people are just "Amazon Bestselling" this data to make it seem more relevant than it is by saying it's doing really well on this one, very specific, retailer.

Like when people swore up and down that Bayo2 would be a smash hit because it was doing really well on Amazon's Best Seller list. Like whenever anyone brings up Amazon's Bestseller list as if it is indicative of literally anything.

COMG is almost always a very accurate way to predict things, except when it comes to bizarre anime games, which tend to have a lower point to sale ratio. Nintendo games usually have a high point to sale ratio, like Mario Party 10 didn't even chart at all yet it opened with 50k in Japan. 

There is a COMG archive. I've been doing a point comparison between Pikmin 3, Super Mario 3D World, Xenoblade Chronicles X and Splatoon that you can see here (I also put all of their FW sales in the post): http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=7301202

Also, Bayonetta 2 ended with 20pt on COMG, and sold 38,828 FW in Japan according to Media Create. Much better as an indicator than Amazon.



Official Tokyo Mirage Sessions #FE Thread

                                      

tbone51 on 24 May 2015
spemanig said:
tbone51 said:

Did Nintendo say somewhere that they were shipping 400K copies of Splatoon in preperation of the first week? Am I missing something? I'm not being patronizing. I really feel like I'm missing something. I don't see how anyone realistically would think that Splatoon would come anywhere close to outselling Bayo2 WW in one week.

⇒120k in japan 10days before release. Do you think WW will be under 350k with that information alone???

 

When have the U.S. preorders been proven unreliable? Like ever?

⇒Yes for awhile now. 

 

So, in otherwords, COMG really is Japan's "Amazon Bestsellers." Got it.

⇒Your dismissing COMG Yet it is the most reliable source of information for predicting numbers from a non actual real source in the entire world for predicting... Yes it is 100% reliable. (for predicting)

 

Again, didn't Pikmin 3 only hit like 90K in actual it's first week in Japan, then dropped of significantly in sales the weeks following. Not the most secure example.

⇒Hello? P3 is over 240k lifetime in japan. That said Your going to ignore SM3DW (debuted at 99k, over 600k lifetime)





Frogger on 24 May 2015
Goodnightmoon said:

Splatoon is already ahead of Pikmin 3 , SM3DW and XCX

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=7301202


That post shows that there's literally no correlation between the "points" of COMG and actual first week, and especially lifetime, sales.

Pikmin = the most amount of points at 73pts the day before lauch, but only 92K FW.

SM3DW = the least amount of points at only 66pts the day before launch, yet sold 99K FW.

These magic COMG "points" are literally nonsense. They mean nothing and indicate nothing.



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Goodnightmoon on 24 May 2015
spemanig said:
Goodnightmoon said:

Splatoon is already ahead of Pikmin 3 , SM3DW and XCX

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=7301202


That post shows that there's literally no correlation between the "points" of COMG and actual first week, and especially lifetime, sales.

Pikmin = the most amount of points at 73pts the day before lauch, but only 92K FW.

SM3DW = the least amount of points at only 66pts the day before launch, yet sold 99K FW.

These magic COMG "points" are literally nonsense. They mean nothing and indicate nothing.


LOL

Is not a perfect correlation, it depends on the game and the date. But of course that exist a solid correlation, I look comg everyday and it´s pretty obvious.



curl-6 on 24 May 2015

And I thought I was a pessimist... XD



Frogger on 24 May 2015
curl-6 said:

And I thought I was a pessimist... XD


More like realist.



tbone51 on 24 May 2015
spemanig said:
Goodnightmoon said:

Splatoon is already ahead of Pikmin 3 , SM3DW and XCX

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=7301202


That post shows that there's literally no correlation between the "points" of COMG and actual first week, and especially lifetime, sales.

Pikmin = the most amount of points at 73pts the day before lauch, but only 92K FW.

SM3DW = the least amount of points at only 66pts the day before launch, yet sold 99K FW.

These magic COMG "points" are literally nonsense. They mean nothing and indicate nothing.


I cant tell if your serious or not. Do you not understand the 1p:1k ratio or are you just being you and trying to ignore it?

Seriously am confused. Because COMG Is the most reliable information for predicting sales in gaming in the world.



Skullwaker on 24 May 2015
spemanig said:
That post shows that there's literally no correlation between the "points" of COMG and actual first week, and especially lifetime, sales.

Pikmin = the most amount of points at 73pts the day before lauch, but only 92K FW.

SM3DW = the least amount of points at only 66pts the day before launch, yet sold 99K FW.

These magic COMG "points" are literally nonsense. They mean nothing and indicate nothing.

They're not supposed to indicate lifetime sales.

The point is that for Nintendo games, 1pt= >1k 99.9% of the time, as was the case for those games in the chart. 

It's not an exact thing like "this game got 60 points so it will open with 60k." It's not like that at all. It's a predictor of the range of sales. So, if a game scores 25pt on COMG, you can expect it to sell in the range of 20-40k for a FW. If it scores 200pt, you can expect 150-250k sales. The more points a game scores, the bigger the range, but also the increased likelihood of it having a subsantial FW. 



Official Tokyo Mirage Sessions #FE Thread