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Forums - Nintendo - Splatoon Serving Crow A Little Early, Who's Joining For Dinner? (Aka Admiting Your Wrong)

Skullwaker on 24 May 2015
spemanig said:
I'm in no position to give hard numbers on something like that, though I can say that I wouldn't be suprised go see it reach Bayonetta 2-like sales long term. I also wouldn't be suprised to see it fall short of that.

Who says the US preorder sales are worth nothing? Am I missing the consensus where it was unanimously agreed that VGChartz' preorder numbers are unreliable? Or did I miss the day when the US stopped being the shooter capital of the world?

Where are the Japanese preorder numbers? What are they? How much did they shoot up?

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=7301190

COMG is a preorder store in Japan. 1pt on COMG typically equals 1k in sales for FW, more or less (for Nintendo games, it's usually more)

Also: http://www.amazon.co.jp/gp/bestsellers/videogames



Official Tokyo Mirage Sessions #FE Thread

                                      

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Goodnightmoon on 24 May 2015
spemanig said:
Goodnightmoon said:

This coment will haunt you very soon man...

2 months ago Splatoon wasn´t on COMG

Now it has 111 points and it´s 2º.

Who the hell knows how is Splatoon doing on the pre-orders on US?


Doubt it.

What is COMG?

111 points of what? What does 2º mean?

Oh, come on,  is a good predictor.

And sorry the idea of Splatoon selling less than Bayo 2 looks hilarious to me at this moment. It will sell the same as Bayo 2 on less than a month.  



Netty on 24 May 2015

The demo was great but the severe lack of maps at launch and the Amiibo locked content is enough to make me wait and see how the game turns out with the "free" content they're launching later.



tbone51 on 24 May 2015
spemanig said:
tbone51 said:

Whaaaaaaaaaaaaat! Nobody expects MK levels of sales and the US pre orders are worth absolutely nothing on this site.

Just so we are clear because you think we are overestimating (Especially a few including me), pls give me your best estimates to each question.

First Week Sales for Splatoon in Japan and US? (we'll get answers for these 100%)

By end of June how much of this will This have sold (Shipped+Digital)

Lifetime Sales?

 

Edit: Comparing 2 months before release is definitely a bad choice. Look at pre orders in japan, shot up after Demo's success.


I'm in no position to give hard numbers on something like that, though I can say that I wouldn't be suprised go see it reach Bayonetta 2-like sales long term. I also wouldn't be suprised to see it fall short of that.

Who says the US preorder sales are worth nothing? Am I missing the consensus where it was unanimously agreed that VGChartz' preorder numbers are unreliable? Or did I miss the day when the US stopped being the shooter capital of the world?

Where are the Japanese preorder numbers? What are they? How much did they shoot up?

Bayo #s WW in shipment are probably about 300k-350k currently, Lifetime no more than 400k (vgc #s are overtracked).Splatoon is going to Ship over B2 lifetime Week 1, possibly outsell it.

as for US pre orders, most dont take it seriously at all for awhile now, its been proven time after time its very unreliable. 

As for your last questions, on COMG Its showing clear signs Splatoon is killing it. No doubt its the same In every other retailer. That said we did get some hints as Splatoon shipments are over 120k and that was 10 days before the game releases.

For comparisons, the 4th/5th highest Shipped games in japan for WiiU are both Pikmin 3/SM3DW and were at 150k-170k Week 1.



curl-6 on 24 May 2015

Regardless of predictions and evidence, I still think it's premature to serve crow before the game is even out.



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tbone51 on 24 May 2015
Netty said:
The demo was great but the severe lack of maps at launch and the Amiibo locked content is enough to make me wait and see how the game turns out with the "free" content they're launching later.


Just for more info if your interested, the amiibo lock content is a few costumes and the levels are just a harder difficulty of the regular levels in game. Think of Super Mario Galaxy games where you have 1health throughout the stage or collect purple coins. Similar to that but switches weapon you use.



Skullwaker on 24 May 2015
curl-6 said:
Regardless of predictions and evidence, I still think it's premature to serve crow before the game is even out.

Yeah, I agree with this. 

Even though I'll gladly serve crow to myself, I wouldn't make other people do it until we have some hard numbers.



Official Tokyo Mirage Sessions #FE Thread

                                      

tbone51 on 24 May 2015
curl-6 said:
Regardless of predictions and evidence, I still think it's premature to serve crow before the game is even out.

It is a little premature, that said one reason for this is for those who werent interested in the game but now is suddenly because of the demo, which is quite alot if i may add.

Sales premature? Sure but that doesn't stop that many still did change their low expectations to rather standard predictions (so eating crow).

 

There were about 60 predictions here on Vgc for FW japanese sales.

25% were under 40k or under FW

50% were between 40k-80k FW

10% were right around 85k-90k

15% were over 100k (many being 100k-120k and 2/3 people that said 130k+)



Frogger on 24 May 2015
Skullwaker said:

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=7301190

COMG is a preorder store in Japan. 1pt on COMG typically equals 1k in sales for FW, more or less (for Nintendo games, it's usually more)

Also: http://www.amazon.co.jp/gp/bestsellers/videogames


Is it chronicled? I want to see what Pikmin and other games were on it before they launched. From what I remember, it launched with like 90k FW. Would that mean that it probably had 85pts or somethink right before launch?

I'm just trying to understand how legit this is, because it sounds like people are just "Amazon Bestselling" this data to make it seem more relevant than it is by saying it's doing really well on this one, very specific, retailer.

Like when people swore up and down that Bayo2 would be a smash hit because it was doing really well on Amazon's Best Seller list. Like whenever anyone brings up Amazon's Bestseller list as if it is indicative of literally anything.



tbone51 on 24 May 2015
spemanig said:
Skullwaker said:

 


Is it chronicled? I want to see what Pikmin and other games were on it before they launched. From what I remember, it launched with like 90k FW. Would that mean that it probably had 85pts or somethink right before launch?

I'm just trying to understand how legit this is, because it sounds like people are just "Amazon Bestselling" this data to make it seem more relevant than it is by saying it's doing really well on this one, very specific, retailer.

Like when people swore up and down that Bayo2 would be a smash hit because it was doing really well on Amazon's Best Seller list. Like whenever anyone brings up Amazon's Bestseller list as if it is indicative of literally anything.

Forget Amazon, We will talk only COMG.

Comg is famous for 1 reason only. The ratio of every point in pre orders is usually close to 1k in sales FW. Many factors play a role here such as JRPGs usually are under the 1p:1k ratio. Nintendo games are usually a better ratio than 1p:1k standard.

I'll point out a few examples here to give you an idea if you want. I can also point out the chart for wiiu games

 

Edit: Here......

 

From most preorders to leas (that charted):

[WiiU] Mario Kart 8 - 259pt - 5/2014

[WiiU] Super Smash Bros. Wii U - 251pt - 11/2014

[WiiU] New Super Mario Bros U - 200pt - 12/2012

 

[WIU] Splatoon - 5 days before release - 111pt - 5/2015

 

[WiiU] Monster Hunter 3 Ultimate. - 75pt - 12/2012

[WIU] Pikmin 3 - 74pt - 7/2013

[WiiU] Dragon Quest X v3 - 71pt - 4/2015

[WiiU] Xenoblade Chronicles X - 69pt - 4/2015

[WiiU] Super Mario 3D World - 66pt - 11/2013

[WiiU] Dragon Quest X v2 - 59pt - 12/2013

[WiiU] Nintendo Land - 54pt - 12/2012

[WiiU] Hyrule Warriors - 50pt - 8/2014

[WiiU] Fatal Frame V - 35pt - 9/2014

[WiiU] Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze - 24pt - 2/2014

[WiiU] Wii Party U - 21pt - 10/2013

[WiiU] Bayonetta 2 - 20pt - 9/2014

[WiiU] Kirby: Rainbow Curse - 20pt - 1/2015

[WiiU] JUST DANCE Wii U - 16pt - 4/2014

[WiiU] Dragon Quest X v1 - 15pt - 3/2013