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Forums - Sales Discussion - Analyst: Sony's First Party Sucks, Splatoon to Sell 6m, Expect Great Things from Microsoft

sales2099 on 20 May 2015
leo-j said:
wow..... so THE LAST OF US sucks.... Sony haven't released that many first party blockbusters besides secound son which apparently sucks.. and bloodborne which also sucks ......

Last of Us was 2013. Infamous, while great in is own right, is completely overshadowed by GTA5, and doesn't have any sort of multiplayer/coop. Bloodborne isn't 1st party.....From Software is independant last I checked (not being sarcastic there).

Hey listen, PS4 is 1st place so no need to become defensive. That said, they are being more reliant on 3rd parties and indies. With 1st party being composed of average titles in their respective genres (KZ: SF, Infamous, Drive Club). Even LBP 3, a great title, flew under the radar of most core gamers (essentially outstaying its welcome as a IP) and sold on bundles alone. Sony has yet to showcase a real 1st party powerhouse with Uncharted being delayed into 2016.

I mean, these titles will come, they always do. But for all the good cred gamers are giving Sony, its gonna be 3 calendar years PS4 existed and they still havent released a real AAA powerhouse. That said, with the way PS4 is selling now, I doubt Sony execs are making 1st party games a priority like last gen, when they really needed them to differentiate.



Xbox: Best hardware, Game Pass best value, best BC, more 1st party genres and multiplayer titles. 

 

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sales2099 on 20 May 2015

The Splatoon prediction won't happen. Pretty sure Mario Kart 8 is going to be the best selling WiiU title for the gen.



Xbox: Best hardware, Game Pass best value, best BC, more 1st party genres and multiplayer titles. 

 

Ljink96 on 20 May 2015

Sony...empty promises??? Greatness awaits on Xbone....? What is this guy taking?



sales2099 on 20 May 2015
RolStoppable said:
sales2099 said:
The Splatoon prediction won't happen. Pretty sure Mario Kart 8 is going to be the best selling WiiU title for the gen.

Mario Kart 8 being the bestselling Wii U game doesn't rule out 6m for Splatoon.

It kinda does. I mean if the game is at 4.43 and will crawl to 6 million (unless Nintendo does some aggressive bundling), then Splatoon won't have a chance. A new IP on a struggling console means 2-3 million tops IMO.



Xbox: Best hardware, Game Pass best value, best BC, more 1st party genres and multiplayer titles. 

 

tbone51 on 20 May 2015
sales2099 said:
RolStoppable said:
sales2099 said:
The Splatoon prediction won't happen. Pretty sure Mario Kart 8 is going to be the best selling WiiU title for the gen.

Mario Kart 8 being the bestselling Wii U game doesn't rule out 6m for Splatoon.

It kinda does. I mean if the game is at 4.43 and will crawl to 6 million (unless Nintendo does some aggressive bundling), then Splatoon won't have a chance. A new IP on a struggling console means 2-3 million tops IMO.


MK8 is currently at 5.11mil, and thats all within 10 months, its also a franchise with probably one of the best legs in history. Its going to be over 6mil before 2016. My guess closer to 7mil.

Last quarter WiiU shipped 340k, MK8 did 300k+. Its going to keep going :)

 

edit: That said as a new ip, its one of the very rare ones Nintendo is pushing hard for. Many underestimate it, thinking 1mil is impossible lifetime. Yes it might settle at 1mil-1.5mil, but 2mil wouldn't be tops. Its going to beat many expectations, 6mil is out of reach imo, but i wouldn't be surprised if it did 3mil+ lifetime

Double edit: If my prediction comes true, you can expect 2mil+ by years end... http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=202929&page=1



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bunchanumbers on 20 May 2015

lol! Great thread! I laughed.



sales2099 on 20 May 2015
tbone51 said:
sales2099 said:
RolStoppable said:
sales2099 said:
The Splatoon prediction won't happen. Pretty sure Mario Kart 8 is going to be the best selling WiiU title for the gen.

Mario Kart 8 being the bestselling Wii U game doesn't rule out 6m for Splatoon.

It kinda does. I mean if the game is at 4.43 and will crawl to 6 million (unless Nintendo does some aggressive bundling), then Splatoon won't have a chance. A new IP on a struggling console means 2-3 million tops IMO.


MK8 is currently at 5.11mil, and thats all within 10 months, its also a franchise with probably one of the best legs in history. Its going to be over 6mil before 2016. My guess closer to 7mil.

Last quarter WiiU shipped 340k, MK8 did 300k+. Its going to keep going :)

 

edit: That said as a new ip, its one of the very rare ones Nintendo is pushing hard for. Many underestimate it, thinking 1mil is impossible lifetime. Yes it might settle at 1mil-1.5mil, but 2mil wouldn't be tops. Its going to beat many expectations, 6mil is out of reach imo, but i wouldn't be surprised if it did 3mil+ lifetime

Ya I think 3 million is a reasonable estimate to go by.



Xbox: Best hardware, Game Pass best value, best BC, more 1st party genres and multiplayer titles. 

 

Paatar on 20 May 2015

I'm personally expecting Splatoon to sell 4m WW. Not 6m. 2m in NA with 1m in EU and Japan probably.



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Qwark on 20 May 2015
SweetTalia said:
Idk about sony not coming through or not. I only have an xbox one but i can say actual greatness awaits on the Xbox One."


Make that greatness comes to.Xone and gets delayed on PS4. But Horizon could change that along Uncharted 4, GOW 4 and Ratchet and Clank in ons year.



Please excuse my (probally) poor grammar

PotentHerbs on 20 May 2015
Azzanation said:

Have to say I agree with this article, As a owner of all 4 gaming platforms, PC, XB1, PS4, WiiU. I have this to say. Ever since Launch, what were the games that killed the competition for the PS4? PS4 has had the 3rd best line up of games this gen excluding Bloodbourne which has only just been released. The system has been riding a wave of success for unknown reasons since launch. The games are no different to what's on XB1 and PC yet falls short on 1st party exclusives but continues to dominate the market. Lets look at some of the most popular genres here.

1st party/Exclusive games

Racing
XB1 - FM5, FH2
WiiU - Mario Kart 8
PS4 - DriveClub
^ Clear winner is on Xbox

FPS
XB1 - Halo MCC, Titanfall
WiiU - Zombi U
PS4 - Killzone SF
^ Clear winner is on Xbox

OpenWorld
XB1 - Sunset Overdrive, Dead Rising 3, State of Decay RM
WiiU - Lego World 
PS4 - Infamous SS
^ Clear Winner is on Xbox 

Fighting
XB1 - Killer Instinct
WiiU - Super Smash Bros
PS4 - Guilty Gear + SFV 
WiiU & PS4 tie. 

Platformers
XB1- Ori and the Blind Forest
WiiU - Mario 2D/3D, Donkey Kong Country
PS4 - Knack + LBP3 & Tearaway 
^Clear winner is WiiU = PS4 makes it debatable 

Cinematic Experiences: 
XB1 - Ryse
WiiU - ?
PS4 - TLOU, The Order, Until Dawn.
^Clear Winner is the PS4

Now iv only mentioned some of the most popular genres here and its clear that the PS4 is lacking in games and quality. The PS4 is selling but its not selling because of its better games. I am still a little unknown with the WiiUs game lineup but I reckon WiiU has the bases covered especially in the platforming genre.

E3 is looking like XB1s best year of gaming, WiiU has some Gems coming out while PS4 is hiding in the shadows with no high quality franchises we can think will come out anytime soon apart from God Of War 3 RM. However the PS4 will continue to outsell the opposition regardless of its games.

This is what baffles my mind the most. PS4s more does not equal better. What ever 1st party game you buy on PS4 there is more of a chance theres a better counter part on another platform.
 
My post relates to Metacritic scores, quantity and popularity, and is subjective to my own opinion

Tbh you're stretching and you omitted a few games to establish a point. You had a genre for linearity lol? For example the WiiU & XOne aren't tied in the fighting genre if we go by Metascore, the XOne also loses to the PS4 in this category. Now with other genres: 

Sports: 

XOne = Kinect Sports Rivals
WiiU = ?
PS4 = MLB, Hot Shots Golf

PS4 clear win. 

JRPG's: 

XOne = Scalebound
WiiU = Xenoblade
PS4 = BloodBorne + Disgaea 5

PS4 clear win.

Hack & Slash: 

XOne = Ryse 
WiiU = Bayonetta 2 
PS4 = God of War 4 (confirmed in development), Hellblade 

WiiU atm but PS4 can win in the long run. 

Action/ Adventure: 

XOne = Quantum Break
WiiU = ? 
PS4 = R&C, Uncharted 4. 

PS4 clear win.

Considering GT isn't out the racing genre is still up in air as well as open world games. The only genre the One will win handily is FPS.