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Forums - Nintendo - 3DS overtracked. ioi...

Mummelmann on 07 May 2015
torok said:
Yakuzaice said:
torok said:

What was the previous shipment information from Nintendo?

The 3DS was at 50.41m shipped as of December 31, 2014.


VGC has it at 49.7M sold in Dec 27th. Looks reasonable, so we would have 0.7M on stock, normal for holidays.

So, if we assume this as correct, VGC has it at 52.2M sold, resulting in 2.5M units sold in the quarter. Nintendo shipped 1.6M units so we have 52.1M consoles in the wild and VGC if obviously off. If the 0.7M on stock is correct for December, we can assume that the stock went down in Q1, simply because you won't ship more consoles that the demand if you already had 0.7M on the shelves.

I think something between 0.3 and 0.4M would be a more reasonable stock for Q1, so we can assume something between 51.7M and 51.8M and VGC would be 400~500K off. However, we could have a higher difference if Nintendo overshipped the New 3DS in the west, something that's reasonable. Either way, less than the OP suggests.

I think that 3DS tracking for Q4 was decent but the tracking for Q1 this year has been off a great deal. Specifically; I believe that N3DS figures are highly inflated in the West since its release.



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torok on 07 May 2015
Mummelmann said:
torok said:


VGC has it at 49.7M sold in Dec 27th. Looks reasonable, so we would have 0.7M on stock, normal for holidays.

So, if we assume this as correct, VGC has it at 52.2M sold, resulting in 2.5M units sold in the quarter. Nintendo shipped 1.6M units so we have 52.1M consoles in the wild and VGC if obviously off. If the 0.7M on stock is correct for December, we can assume that the stock went down in Q1, simply because you won't ship more consoles that the demand if you already had 0.7M on the shelves.

I think something between 0.3 and 0.4M would be a more reasonable stock for Q1, so we can assume something between 51.7M and 51.8M and VGC would be 400~500K off. However, we could have a higher difference if Nintendo overshipped the New 3DS in the west, something that's reasonable. Either way, less than the OP suggests.

I think that 3DS tracking for Q4 was decent but the tracking for Q1 this year has been off a great deal. Specifically; I believe that N3DS figures are highly inflated in the West since its release.

If my numbers are close to the reality, then Q1 was 1.6M shipped, with 2~2.1M sold. VGC has 2.5M sold so the error would be 19~25% more units on VGC. That's a big error for a single quarter.



Bet with jetforcejiminy: PS4 will pass the Wii lifetime numbers.

Mummelmann on 07 May 2015
torok said:
Mummelmann said:
torok said:
 


VGC has it at 49.7M sold in Dec 27th. Looks reasonable, so we would have 0.7M on stock, normal for holidays.

So, if we assume this as correct, VGC has it at 52.2M sold, resulting in 2.5M units sold in the quarter. Nintendo shipped 1.6M units so we have 52.1M consoles in the wild and VGC if obviously off. If the 0.7M on stock is correct for December, we can assume that the stock went down in Q1, simply because you won't ship more consoles that the demand if you already had 0.7M on the shelves.

I think something between 0.3 and 0.4M would be a more reasonable stock for Q1, so we can assume something between 51.7M and 51.8M and VGC would be 400~500K off. However, we could have a higher difference if Nintendo overshipped the New 3DS in the west, something that's reasonable. Either way, less than the OP suggests.

I think that 3DS tracking for Q4 was decent but the tracking for Q1 this year has been off a great deal. Specifically; I believe that N3DS figures are highly inflated in the West since its release.

If my numbers are close to the reality, then Q1 was 1.6M shipped, with 2~2.1M sold. VGC has 2.5M sold so the error would be 19~25% more units on VGC. That's a big error for a single quarter.


Yeah, like I said; I believe this is due to the N3DS launching in the West. In reality, the 3DS is likely flat or even somewhat down yoy globally for Q1 if this is true.