But will it surpass the PS3? That’s the question

Is it fair to bump this thread up again if the PS5 doesn't outsell the PSP? I know the main part about this prediction has now been proven false, but the other part is that Playstation home consoles actually would outsell the PSP. I really don't think that is a sure thing either.

I don't think Sony will have any trouble selling over 80 million PS5's.  It's lifetime sales should be at least what the PS4 has done.  It would have needed to price itself out of the general consumer range the way they did with PS3 to see a significant drop in lifetime sales from its predecessor.  Also, Microsoft would need to really eat into Sony's sales, which also doesn't seem to have happened since the PS5 sales have been tracking so close to PS4 sales launch aligned.  We'll have a better idea of course of how their ratios play out once they both sort out their stock issues, so maybe it is too early to say.  But while PlayStation sales are on the decline in Japan, the PS4 made huge gains in Europe and NA that the PS5 should be able to retain as well.

I wouldn't make any lifetime predictions if you are going by the data alone, which we only have 4 months of so far.  People are buying PS5's when the only notable exclusive is a Gen 7 port (Demon's Souls).  There are people who buy a new system at every launch regardless of how good or bad the system is. 

If you look at other factors though, I don't think the PS5 is in so hot of a position.  Microsoft is definitely going to eat into their sales simply because of their recent acquisitions.  However, I think the Switch is going to eat into PS5 sales even more.  PS5 is going to lose sales to Switch in the other parts of the world too.  It won't be a total shutout or anything like it is in Japan, but a certain fraction of gamers in NA, Europe and RoW are going to buy a Nintendo system only, because they mostly like the games that are coming out of Japan.  On top of that, the hybrid model is a lot more convenient than a home-only model and a fair amount of people are going to prefer Switch just because of that.  Lastly, I do think $500 is too much on the pricey side.  It's not as bad as the PS3's $600, but it's still expensive enough to lose some customers.

Put all of those factors together and yeah, PS5 could very well drop to 80m lifetime (or less).  I am not making it a hard prediction at this point, but I see it as a possibility.  I can make a hard prediction that it will definitely not outsell the PS4 though.  The PS4 had weak competition and the PS5 has pretty tough competition in comparison.  Sony is going to be caught flatfooted if they expect Generation 9 to be another cakewalk for them.

I'd have to see Microsoft commit to a really ballsy move and restrict future Fallout, Elder Scrolls, Wolfenstein, etc games to XBox/PC before considering how much of an impact the Bethesda acquisition will have on this gen.  They haven't done it with previous big franchise acquisitions, notably Minecraft, so there isn't precedent at the moment to say that PS5 definitely won't get ports of those games.  I'm not saying they can't do it.  It would be very interesting to see them go that route.  But, I just don't know if they will sacrifice all of those multiplatform software sales when they haven't done something like that before.  And, while I agree that the PS5 point isn't at the $399 sweet spot the PS4 launched at, Microsoft's top model is sold at the same pricepoint.  So again, the PS5 isn't going to lose customers to Microsoft based on price the way the XBox One did to the PS4 at launch.  The Series S is cheaper, but the majority of people in the market for a next gen console probably aren't going to go for that model.  Again, it is very early to tell, so we'll see.  As for the Switch, I don't expect the PS5 and Switch to impact each other's sales, just like how the PS4 and Switch didn't really effect each other's sales.  I'm not saying this generation will be a cakewalk for Sony.  But for the PS5 to see a massive drop in lifetime sales, typically you would expect to have to see Sony contribute to that faltering on their own rather than just a step up in competition.

I am not attacking the person who made this quote because even as a huge Nintendo fan I had to acknowledge the apparent truth of this trend back in 2015. I am sure if you dig through my posts in 2015 you will find multiple posts acknowledging that I would be really happy if the NX (Switch) could reach 40 million (most people were predicting that it would bomb worse than the Wii U).  That said, I just wanted to draw attention to this viewpoint because it was absolutely prevailing back in 2015 and is the main reason that this thread was made.  There are two aspects of this view here that I am glad to say have both been proven woefully wrong:

1) NES-SNES-N64-GCN-Wii U forms the prevailing trend of Nintendo's home console market.  Back in 2015, the Wii was seen as a lucky fluke that Nintendo could not recreate.  Nintendo's gimmick failed badly on the Wii U and demonstrated that Nintendo was no Apple in terms of innovation and was not able to recreate their own success.  All that this left us with was the consistent downward trend that we saw from Nintendo's other home consoles which led people to believe that Nintendo's home console market business was finished.  The fusion concept was discussed even on this board as the only route that Nintendo had to stay relevant in the home console market which is what Nintendo ended up doing with the Switch, but I cannot emphasize how unclear it was that this strategy would be successful in 2015 much less result in a console that massively exceeded the sales of Wii U + 3DS as the Switch is doing.  I just don't think that many people believed that Nintendo would be capable of producing a cool, sleek handheld that can have fast enough hardware to hold its own as a home console.  Most people in 2015 were expecting another big clunky Wii U gamepad if Nintendo tried something like this.

2)  The unstoppable momentum of smartphones gaming destroying dedicated handhelds. In 2015, nobody including myself ever thought that the smartphone gaming fad might be something that would result in something similar to the gaming crash of the 1980's.  In 2015, it was a near consensus that Nintendo needed to move into the smartphone gaming ASAP.  We were all oblivious to the growing amount of microtransactions and garbage, low-quality games that were slowly flooding the smartphone gaming market that was creating the same conditions that Nintendo prospered in back in the 1980's.

I think that the second prediction was the biggest mistake that we all made back in 2015.  Honestly, the Switch could easily be a dedicated handheld and it would probably be just about as successful as it is today.  Nintendo completely turned the smartphone gaming boom on its head and swept the floor with it and used the industry's own lack of quality control against it.  I still do believe that there is some truth to the first prediction and Nintendo's inability to go up against Sony and MS with dedicated home consoles, but Nintendo has become so radically successful with the Switch that the dedicated handheld market is basically now eating into the home console market and that is what is happening this generation.

1) Wrong. Because you have the NES and SNES, two consoles which have great sales basically in two markets: EUA e Japan. Nintendo beginning in market expansion, in worldwide distribution, as sony did on PS1, only with DS and Wii. Two consoles with a great sales track and one console generate another. So the trades down under it's more a Nintendo political view; chased the 3d games only (with N64 and Gamecube) and abandon the arcade roots. With Wii, Nintendo reintroduces arcade games with motion controls, likewise, DS reintroduces arcade games with touch controls. With this, Nintendo brings older gamers, and older games bring new consumers, expanding the market. WiiU and 3DS is more a turn back to 3d Game way and sales reflect this. Switch bring back the arcade roots( console have two controllers on the box, one example), focus in couch coop, etc.  Most people are wrong because Nintendo unified our development teams before 2016, I believe. So merge their Invictus market, the portable market will merge with their irregular market, it's been predictable. And the narrative of downward only exists with you don't see the portable market. The Nintendo portable market always wins e and now, one hybrid console with the portable feature is the piece of dedicated best-selling videogame, broken records. The problem with 3ds is direction e and not a smartphone. 3ds lost the older gamers and the new with 3ds free glass and focus on 3d. 

2) It's not true. The smartphone destroys multimedia game devices, like Psvita. PSP sells well for two aspects: multimedia great features and games. Pspvita sell badly because the smartphone is better in multimedia or good enough, but the portable market has Nintendo, and besides 3d and direction out of arcade games, Nintendo can sell 75M of units. 5x the sales fo Psvita. Nintendo used the smartphone games like a trojan horse for the more complex and complete console games. Nintendo used TV shows and magazines in the same way in the '80s. Smartphones are portable PC. Nintendo is arcade based company, the roots of both are different. Switch doesn't have many apps, besides games. Why this? A machine only for gaming. 

Yeah, switch maybe will try eat the home console market with portable Nintendo force. 

As evidenced by my bet with Liquid Laser, I consider the chances of PS5 selling under 80 million lifetime about as likely as Hawaii freezing over.

Even with its multitude of missteps, excessive price, lack of games early on and horrendous marketing, PS3 still sold over 80 million, and PS5 hasn't really made any major missteps so far.

The Switch has now outsold the PSP in Europe. The last bastions of defence for the Playstation Portable are falling. Soon the Rest of the World will face the same fate. Christmas 2022 will leave neither side in doubt of their place in the world. The thick black bezels are approaching. Hear the sound. *click*. *click* *click*
Large eyes will stare at any hiding from the facts. “It’s-a me…”

The wise old Playstation (non-portable) had seen the challenge coming, but it was old.  Chained up to heavy TVs, hidden away in boxes.  Its numbers in Europe are strong, but it too knows it is likely to face the same fate.

All it can do is prepare itself for the fight.

Well this prediction aged about as well as square dancing.