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Forums - Sales Discussion - January 2015 NPD Thread! Hardware estimates up!

Dr.Henry_Killinger said:
TiagoCosta said:

January is just 4 weeks.... just saying. 

After 2 months at 350, the sales on the half the month must have been terrible.. even so it managed to recover against a non supply constrain first january and still win. Great result. 

Win what? Software? And if we're being specific.

Potential hardware impacting events in January:
Summary
XB1 Holiday $50 price drop ends, so price increase to $400 - Jan. 3 (12 days)
New 3DSXL announced for U.S. release on Feb. 13 - Jan. 15 (17 days)
XB1 price dropped back to $350 - Jan. 16 (16 days)
PS4 TLOU bundle $400 - Jan. 23 (9 days)

It's not "great" by any stretch of the word. "Deserved" maybe? This NPD only exposes problems for both. 

Waning demand for the PS4 means Sony needs to get their butts in gear and release some games/price cut and deals/add features/ etc.

Poor momentum for XB1 sales rate means they have to boost the value proposition and maintain their sales rate.

Unless of course, "closing the gap" has gone the way of "competing in a country other than us/uk" and "competing world wide"? Can we just wrap up closing the US gap, to increasing YoY on its previous dismal year now?

LOL

Win against XBO first January, I didn't even mention your favorite console.

And again, my analyzes are on XBO sales, which amount for 2 week worth after 2 misleading weeks where it gone up in price. 

Seriously, you are so fixed in defending Ps4 that you forgot to try reading (and understanding) my post. I didn't talk about completion XBO vs Ps4 there.



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I remember one retailer (either Best Buy or Target, IDK) still sold XB1 bundles at $349 even though the pricecut "ended". Also, on Amazon, there were always XB1's that were sold significantly below $399, but not quite $349 (e.g. $370). Overall, regardless of whether the price stayed at $349, the momentum would wane. The price increase just killed the momentum faster.



Aura7541 said:
TiagoCosta said:

XBO sales after going up in price must have been horrible, I mean, it was cheaper for 2 whole months. No one in their right mind would buy it. In the end it only got 2 weeks on ''momentum sales'' and it managed to do better without titanfall hype on the horizon. 

Ps4 is the one supposed to be selling on record pace, not XBO. I have different expectations for both. 

Undoubtedly, the XB1 did better after the price went back down. However, looking at Amazon's rankings for February, it's just not enough. Microsoft's exclusive marketing for Evolve didn't help and The Order: 1886 is on the horizon. As for the PS4, apparently we have different expectations for the system. I expected it to drop YOY, so I found the NPD results unsurprising. You had higher expectations, so obviously, you have interpreted the results differently.

True, that's right. 

Looking exclusively at Amazon is misleading tho, when it comes to see Evolve marketing effect. It didn't have any bundle, so probably didn't do anything tho.

i highly doubt order will change much, ps4 will continue to sell in the same pace. I was expecting ps4 to be down YOY as well, but it was bellow 30-40k of my prediction. Sub 200k was outside my range of prediction.

But you are definitely right, different people have different POV's.



TiagoCosta said:
Dr.Henry_Killinger said:

Win what? Software? And if we're being specific.

Potential hardware impacting events in January:
Summary
XB1 Holiday $50 price drop ends, so price increase to $400 - Jan. 3 (12 days)
New 3DSXL announced for U.S. release on Feb. 13 - Jan. 15 (17 days)
XB1 price dropped back to $350 - Jan. 16 (16 days)
PS4 TLOU bundle $400 - Jan. 23 (9 days)

It's not "great" by any stretch of the word. "Deserved" maybe? This NPD only exposes problems for both. 

Waning demand for the PS4 means Sony needs to get their butts in gear and release some games/price cut and deals/add features/ etc.

Poor momentum for XB1 sales rate means they have to boost the value proposition and maintain their sales rate.

Unless of course, "closing the gap" has gone the way of "competing in a country other than us/uk" and "competing world wide"? Can we just wrap up closing the US gap, to increasing YoY on its previous dismal year now?

LOL

Win against XBO first January, I didn't even mention your favorite console.

And again, my analyzes are on XBO sales, which amount for 2 week worth after 2 misleading weeks where it gone up in price. 

Seriously, you are so fixed in defending Ps4 that you forgot to try reading (and understanding) my post. I didn't talk about completion XBO vs Ps4 there.

It's quite ironic isn't it?

You accuse me of not understanding your post when its clear that you failed to understand mine.

Notice:

I never directly talked about the competition between the PS4 and the XB1. As you can see in bolded, I only mentioned the quotations as examples of narratives that have changed over the course of the generation indicative of changing goalposts.

Just because I mention the PS4 doesn't mean I am comparing the two. Instead, I am focusing on the big picture, the two leading consoles aren't doing well at all, and I simply explain what needs to be done.

The neogaf quotation is only there because it mentions the duration of the pricing for XB1 and, most importantly, when they occured. If momentum dropped so sharply after increasing 50$ its bad, but back to $350k only do 10k more than when it was $500? That's dissmal.

 

Such is the importance of reading comprehension.

Not to mention, your analysis is laughable, when your best conclusion of XB1 beating its previous january by only 10k even if we assume a constant sales rate at 400$ rather than $350 giving it the benefit of the doubt is a "great"



In this day and age, with the Internet, ignorance is a choice! And they're still choosing Ignorance! - Dr. Filthy Frank

BraLoD said:
Sorry but this became pointless long ago.
XBO lost momentum from a record breaking holiday and PS4 started to take it back.
PS4 hadn't that much competetition before now it have as XBO dropped price big time.
If the PS4 still managed to sell more than last year with all this going on that would be absurdly great.
Now the PS4 will start having more games but the will still have a stronger competition, if it manages to keep selling over last year number where it had total domination that would be a great sign, but the point is, from last month the PS4 had a way smoother decrease when compared to the XBO, people just stopped buying the XBO in a heart beat,while they still keep buying PS4s. That should point very clearly what's going to happen again.
Now let's see what the games can do to boost the sales and what a price cut can do as well, PS4 still have all the cards to play while the competition used a lot already and it's still winning. And note, that's only it's most disputed country... PS4 is not in any kind of remotely bad situation

I like running up the score.



In this day and age, with the Internet, ignorance is a choice! And they're still choosing Ignorance! - Dr. Filthy Frank

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Let's see:

I say
"Win against last January"
You say
"Win what? Software?"

And come on, big picture or not, you did compare the two responding to my post. So don't go that way.

"f momentum dropped so sharply after increasing 50$ its bad, but back to $350k only do 10k more than when it was $500? That's dissmal."

I'm trying hard to understand this sentence, but logic isn't working.

You are using 16 days for the price drop, but then comparing the 10k of the whole month. That's nonsensical, if you want to have good analyze of the situation "of the price drop momentum" you need to compare the same days worth of sales which obviously you don't have access to. So you just can't assume 10k is dismal.



TiagoCosta said:

True, that's right. 

Looking exclusively at Amazon is misleading tho, when it comes to see Evolve marketing effect. It didn't have any bundle, so probably didn't do anything tho.

i highly doubt order will change much, ps4 will continue to sell in the same pace. I was expecting ps4 to be down YOY as well, but it was bellow 30-40k of my prediction. Sub 200k was outside my range of prediction.

But you are definitely right, different people have different POV's.

I believe Sony had exclusive marketing for Watch Dogs and there was no bundle with that game. Regardless, the PS4 had a modest increase in sales.



RolStoppable said:
Dr.Henry_Killinger said:

I like running up the score.

The number of your moderations?

I'm making up for January.



In this day and age, with the Internet, ignorance is a choice! And they're still choosing Ignorance! - Dr. Filthy Frank

TiagoCosta said:
Let's see:

I say
"Win against last January"
You say
"Win what? Software?"

 

Way to cherrypick, it's called sarcasm. 

Since an 8%(not including $350) price decrease led to an 8% sales "increase". At best its a tie not a win. Meanwhile, people actually concerned with the performance of the XB1 realize the momentum drop is a serious problem, not a great result. 2014 was the year it couldn't hold launch monentum. And this month shows that Holiday momentum can't be held either. 



In this day and age, with the Internet, ignorance is a choice! And they're still choosing Ignorance! - Dr. Filthy Frank

RolStoppable said:
Dr.Henry_Killinger said:

 

Way to cherrypick, it's called sarcasm. 

Since an 8%(not including $350) price decrease led to an 8% sales "increase". At best its a tie not a win. Meanwhile, people actually concerned with the performance of the XB1 realize the momentum drop is a serious problem, not a great result. 2014 was the year it couldn't hold launch monentum. And this month shows that Holiday momentum can't be held either. 

Confirmation bias.

Not if its a fact.



In this day and age, with the Internet, ignorance is a choice! And they're still choosing Ignorance! - Dr. Filthy Frank