That is some good analyse there.

@OP you are making a good point, but I am guessing this thing is just to close to call now. Hopefully we get some PR about reaching 90 millions shipped by the end of this year or the next one.

Shhhh don't tell them they are now a minority everywhere outside their home!  

anyway, nice to see I am not alone in seeing these numbers align this way, that seems pretty straight forward to me, I even wonder why there are arguments about this gap, we have a good idea of what's a fair range dor both next gen machines... And well the ps3 is on the slide down sales wise, but its still selling way faster than the 360...

for the numbers being off on the site, vgchartz is more oftenslanted in xbox's favor for whatever reason (I know the data for many, if not most, regions is nearly impossible to obtain).

Too much maths!

we know by sony pr and financial results, that ps3 shipments as of end december 2014 are below 86,7m

they announced 80m shipped on 2nd november 2013.
that quarter (october - december) they shipped 3.3m ps3


going with 86.3m ps3 is the ABSOLUT HIGHEST possible figure, because it would mean sony only shipped 400k units in october 2013 to meet the increasing holiday demand.
but everyone knows, u have to ship early, to get ur consoles over sea, in warehouse and store shelfs
and if people talks about ms shipmets, they also talk about frondloaded ones (remeber the nearly 10m figure - they "already shipped christmas inventory"). that also applies to sony

if u want to go on the safe side
84.4 - 86.4m is the range
a more realistic one would be
84.9 - 85.9m



no we go with xb360 numbers
from ms earing reports, we know they shipped 83.7m until end of march 2013
that leaves 3 full quarter of combined xbox shipments

ms shipped 79.4m xb360 until end of september 2013
they announced the 80m goal mid october.
that gives u an idea on how much of that holiday quarter shipmetns already apper in october.


cy2013q4 ms shipped 0.2m more xb360 than sony ps3
cy2014q1 ms shipped 0.1m more xb360 than sony ps3
cy2014q2 sony shipped 0.8m ps3
cy2014q3 sony shipped 0.8m ps3
cy2014q4 sony shipped 1.1m ps3


they were at 80m before sony
they shipped 0.2m more than sony in the holiday quarter
they shipped 0.1m more than sony in the first quarter of 2014

so nothing indicates, this changed, and that they shipped less than sonys 2.7m for the last three quarter in 2014
to be behind sony, they have to ship a maximum of 2.3m for q2-q4 2014 and that would result in 12.9m lifetime shipments for xbox one


and all this number being in sonys favour of only a low amount of that 3.3m holiday quarter shipment happend in october already.

tl;dr
op is wrong

Unfortunately your numbers as well as your assumptions are wrong. To begin with the PS3 could have been as high as 87.2m not 86.7m.

Also for countless years the 360 has outsold the PS3 in the oct-dec quarter and sometimes slightly outsold the PS3 in the jan-mar quarter, but then it's heavily lost during the other two quarters of the year so much that overall for the year the PS3 outsold the 360 and this has happened for the past 5 years in a row.

So when the 360 has slighlty outsold the ps3 during the quarters of the year it normally wins, to then go on and say that must mean it's also outsold the ps3 during the quarters it doesn't normally win is an asinine assumption.

Wii left out again? I'll fix that... "PS3 in third place." There.

Sony has too much tech in the ps3 to drop the price to 99

You forget that xb one ships to fewer markets, therefore a similar or lower supply overhead can mean more supply in key markets. So I think you are wrong on Xb one shipments by 900k.

If known Ltd shipments of xbox 7g+8g is 98.8m and Xb one shipments are 11.9m that makes 360 shipments 86.9m, 600k more than PS3. Sceece's over 1 million sell through lead seems highly unlikely with a shipped difference of just 600k. But it does suggest 360 has a few hundred K sell through lead.

Anyway, last gen cock fights over table scraps when to all intents and purposes they are 2nd equal is merely a distraction and comfort food over the fact that xb one is getting its arse handed to it by Ps4, and there is every chance xb one will lose its 2 strongest territories when this gen is all washed up.

Considering the how it started and the fact it has been out a year less, I am very pleased that ps3 came within shouting distance of PS1.

Will we have the opportunity to celebrate ps3 passing x360 yet again? Count me in.