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Forums - Gaming - What will be the bombs of the year?

baloofarsan on 17 January 2015
DerNebel said:
zumnupy10 said:
DerNebel said:

Bloodborne? Seriously? Could you give a reason for that?

OT: Until Dawn, Evolve, Devils Third I guess

Not seeing so much hype for it outside the guys who liked the Soul series and those aren't a lot tbh.

I believe it will be a relative bomba.  It will sell between 1.5~2M LTD, which isn't bad, but the way Sony is marketing it tells me expect more than this in sales.

I don't think 1.5-2 mil would be a bomb for that game and I really don't think that Sony expects that game to sell huge numbers, they have a general idea what Souls games sell, expecting a huge growth in numbers now would be silly of them. Bloodborne should work out well for Sony and From Software.

(According to VGChartz) Dark Souls 2 sold 1.67 (PS3 = 1.14  X360 = 0.53) on an install base of approximately 160 million consoles. On a install base of about 30 million (PS4/X1) that would equal about 300,000. Dark Souls sold almost 3 millions on PS3/X360 making the equivalent of 600,000 on PS4/X1.



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LudicrousSpeed on 17 January 2015
Burek said:

Standards lie in different development costs. Japanese games are usually cheaper to make. Also Bloodborne is an exclusive, Evolve is on three platforms.

I suspect Evolve to be a much more expensive game to make, and a much more difficult game to market. I doubt MS will invest much in its adverising, and I doubt that they will make huge amount of bundles (actually, shouldn't we know of bundles already, 20 days to launch?).

Also, Evolve requires online subscription to function, so you already lost half the install base on both consoles as potential buyers.

This is my reasoning why Evolve will bomb, and Bloodborne will not.

Evolve has an offline mode. You don't have to play online. Even if you eliminated half the potential buyers, that's also half as many people the publisher would be expecting to buy the game. MS marketing would also mean less copies have to sell for the publisher to recoup their investment.



DerNebel on 17 January 2015
LudicrousSpeed said:
DerNebel said:

It actually would, since the devs have since the beginning been trying to sell this as the next big thing in competitive multiplayer. They have been trying to create that interest but it just hasn't worked it seems.

They have been talking it up as the next big thing in MP. Of course, that has literally nothing to do with anything high sales can accomplish.

If anything, the delay into this time of year should show you the publisher is not expecting it to light up sales charts. So Bloodborne will all the hype and expectations can sell as little as 1.5 million and still not be a bomb, what does Evolve have to sell? Just curious where the different standards lie.

The bolded makes no sense at all.

Also I should note that I expect Bloodborne to sell more in 2 million range, maybe more, but to note the difference:

Japanese games are generally cheaper to make than games from the US, most likely due to japanese devs just making less money.

Also Evolve was longer in development than Bloodborne, as far as I know (someone might have different info) development on Bloodborne didn't start until the Artorias DLC for Dark Souls was finished, so summer 2012. Evolve was already in development in May 2011 (and I'm not saying it started in 2011), though I guess we can break down the cost until the end of 2012 to the 10.8 million that Take 2 paid for Evolve's publishing rights. Still it's those 10.8 million plus another 2 years in development, plus marketing... yeah I'm pretty sure that Evolve is significantly more expensive than Bloodborne.



DerNebel on 17 January 2015
baloofarsan said:
DerNebel said:

I don't think 1.5-2 mil would be a bomb for that game and I really don't think that Sony expects that game to sell huge numbers, they have a general idea what Souls games sell, expecting a huge growth in numbers now would be silly of them. Bloodborne should work out well for Sony and From Software.

(According to VGChartz) Dark Souls 2 sold 1.67 (PS3 = 1.14  X360 = 0.53) on an install base of approximately 160 million consoles. On a install base of about 30 million (PS4/X1) that would equal about 300,000. Dark Souls sold almost 3 millions on PS3/X360 making the equivalent of 600,000 on PS4/X1.

That's not how it works, sales do not necessarily grow exponentially with installbase, if that was the case then we wouldn't be seeing every crossgen selling way more on PS4 than on last gen.



generic-user-1 on 17 January 2015
Boutros said:
generic-user-1 said:
i dont see devils third bombing. the game looks liek they aim for 1m, that should be possible.
and mp10 will sale okay i guess, i dont know why, but the game sales okay every time.

What?...

nintendo games have legs, it will sale 1m, like bayo2, dkctf,toad, hyrule warriors...  just give it time.



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Goremichel on 17 January 2015

I think

Mario Party 10

Xenoblade

The legend of Zelda



Zelda - Breath of the Wild for Nintendo Switch.... Incredable!!!

LudicrousSpeed on 17 January 2015

I don't think Turtlerock has even 40 people working in its studio (could be wrong), so longer dev time and less pay are not much of an issue, if any, considering the size of From Software. I read on GAF that The Order was in the works for 5 years. So must it sell like 8 million or something? No, the team is small. And MS has a marketing deal for Evolve.

So if Bloodborne can sell as little as 1.5 million with all the hype and grand expectations for the game and massive studio size, I guess Evolve can as well. Thanks.



DerNebel on 17 January 2015
LudicrousSpeed said:

I don't think Turtlerock has even 40 people working in its studio (could be wrong), so longer dev time and less pay are not much of an issue, if any, considering the size of From Software. I read on GAF that The Order was in the works for 5 years. So must it sell like 8 million or something? No, the team is small. And MS has a marketing deal for Evolve.

So if Bloodborne can sell as little as 1.5 million with all the hype and grand expectations for the game and massive studio size, I guess Evolve can as well. Thanks.

Not like the whole studio is working on Bloodborne.

Edit: And the only thing I can find about Turtle Rock Studios' size is their linkedin page that shows that they have at least 90 people working there.

https://www.linkedin.com/company/turtle-rock-studios



foodfather on 17 January 2015

Fable Legends and Quantum Theory do not have much marketing so far at all.

MS needs to step things up.

Based on the demo, Evolve plays like complete and utter shit. There is no way this will sell more than Wolfenstein. 



LipeJJ on 17 January 2015

Scalebound, Tearaway: Unfolded, Kirby and the Rainbow Curse and Until Dawn are my guesses.



Bet with Teeqoz for 2 weeks of avatar and sig control that Super Mario Odyssey would ship more than 7m on its first 2 months. The game shipped 9.07m, so I won