The part I deleted I agree with. No doubt there are a lot of games, but casual and hardcore. There's no use fighting over it because deciding who is hardcare or what is hardcore is pointless. My definition is that a player is hardcore... not a game. You can play Scooby Doo in a hardcore sense. Playing it 10 hours a day, play it through 5 times, collect all the stuff in it. That makes YOU hardcore, and not the game. But let's not talk about that, because it's a never ending pointless discussion.

What I have a problem with is the first part after what I deleted. There are a lot of hardcore gamers... there's just not as many as you think. If you consider a lot, maybe, 30 million (on the PS2 only). Then there's a lot. But in the scheme of things? 30 out of 120 million isn't the majority, and 55 million out of 160 (all consoles combined) is still only 1/3 the total gaming population. I've done some rough estimates, and I firmly believe that the most hardcore users, the ones that buy 10 games a year, and practically devote their lives to games, only make up 20-25 million of the PS2 users. Then there's another 30-35 million that buy 5 games a year, play most days a few hours. Then there's another 100-110 million that only buy one or two games a year, one of which is Madden or a sports game of some sort, play a few times a week.

The fist group (the hardcore of hardcore) will mostly go to the PS3/360, but will eventually pick up the other systems (either a PS3 or 360, depending on the first console, and Wii) simply because they play EVERY GAME imaginable. The second group (hardcore) will be split between Wii/PS3/360. The games will decide. Like shooters? 360. Like JRPGs? PS3. Don't like those? Wii. They may also pick up a second console, but almost all with have a combination of a HD console and a Wii. And the last group will almost exclusively be the Wii's territory. Yes, some will get a 360, PS3, but not many. And most of those will get one for GTA4. Since only 15 million bought GTA:SA, there's only (at most) 15 million to get, split it between PS3 and 360, and the effect on those consoles won't be much.

And then there's the new comings, the non-casual. We won't get into those because there's just not enough data to know how big the market is.

So, in recap, the market size that the Wii caters to is the 90 million or so casuals, maybe 10 million (about 1/3rd) of the semi-hardcore, and then maybe 5 million of the hardcore (not including those who buy it as a second console), for a total market of 105 million users (not to mention noncasuals). Whereas the PS3/360 have a total market of 20 million hardcore, 25 million semi-hardcore, and maybe 20 million casual, for a total market size of 65 million. And they have to fight over it.

And yeah.. you can't really use your friends or any video game forum (or any forum for that matter) because it will show an extreme bias towards hardcore type games.

Mostly agree with everything you said. I mainly meant the remaining people still with PS2s. I don't mean all 120mil PS2 owners. I really only expected like 20-40 million people still with the PS2 without any next-gen systems as well. I think the main chunk of casuals from the PS2 have mostly all moved to the Wii or at least 360...not sure because there aren't really any statistics to be sure. But the Wii has sold 20+ million...I think a majority of those might have been PS2 owners as well.

Those still with the PS2 I expect as a majority to either go to the PS3 or 360...though a good chunk of them might still go to the Wii. And as far as your statistics, that's mainly what I expected, 20-25 million hardcores moving to the 360 or PS3....that's what I expected from the start. I see 20 million moving from the PS2 to the PS3 as a big increase...does it not seem like that much? Cause that's kind of what I expected...

The only problem is that only about 50 million consoles have been sold this gen. Meaning even if every single one that bought a console so far owned a PS2, we'd still have another 70 million PS2 owners without a current gen system. You see 20 million going from PS2 to PS3... yes, that's big. But I still 50 million moving from the PS2 to the Wii. That's a lot more. Also, I think the 20 million (from PS2 to PS3) will be split between 360 and PS3, maybe more in favor of the PS3, but still split. This lessens the increase. Basically, the 2 HD consoles will fight themselves for a market that's not all that big to begin with, while the Wii will attract some from that market, and many more from the casual market, and even more from the non-casual market. All while selling their hardware for profit. And let's face it, Sony, Microsoft, and Nintendo are only in this for money. And so far, only Nintendo has hit gold.

The only problem is that only about 50 million consoles have been sold this gen. Meaning even if every single one that bought a console so far owned a PS2, we'd still have another 70 million PS2 owners without a current gen system. You see 20 million going from PS2 to PS3... yes, that's big. But I still 50 million moving from the PS2 to the Wii. That's a lot more. Also, I think the 20 million (from PS2 to PS3) will be split between 360 and PS3, maybe more in favor of the PS3, but still split. This lessens the increase. Basically, the 2 HD consoles will fight themselves for a market that's not all that big to begin with, while the Wii will attract some from that market, and many more from the casual market, and even more from the non-casual market. All while selling their hardware for profit. And let's face it, Sony, Microsoft, and Nintendo are only in this for money. And so far, only Nintendo has hit gold.

those number are utter jokes.

Nin is patted on the back for expended the market but well if they expended the market then they arent taking former PS2 owners now are they.

If PS2 owners were going to the wii they would be buying games, but 3rd part wii sales are crap. Even real games form nin stuggle. Former PS2 owners would eat up a great game like Metroid but look at its pathetic sales. Wii is selling to people that have NEVER played console games.

While 360 is not doing all that much greater then the original xbox, and its software sale show shooter do best on it.