First off, who believes that Sony will drop the price of the PS3 before GTAIV's launch? 

If you believe they will do this, how do you think Microsoft will respond?  IT takes a month to organise price cuts, and in any case it appears Microsoft's price cut will already be used up by then.  Any GTAIV bundle would have to already be sorted out by now to be packed in.  What do people think? 

If anybody makes a price cut before GTA4 it'll be M$ (and I'm sure they will) I expect Ps3 to get a cut during this summer, no earlier.

I think it is far too soon for Sony to make a third (second depending on how you see it) price cut. They need to start showing console profitability.

But if they did cut a week or two before GTAIV, Microsoft would have to do something very impressive very quickly, or their $50 million in exclusive DLC and $10 million in advertising is going to go down the toilet.

MS is already locked in for a $50 (or, at least 50 Euros) according to the rumors, so they'll probably get rolled then curb-stomped. That'll last for 6 months or so when they drop another $50, but people won't care as much by then.

I'd like to see both doing a 100 euros price cut :)

360 should get a price cut within the next two weeks. PS3 I am unsure about. Surely this summer.

Earlier this year I had a feeling that Sony would cut the price of the PS3 before GTA4, however, with the resent events in the HD format war I have a hard time seeing this come to life. I feel strongly that MS will cut the prices to Arcade 250, Pro 299, and elite 399. If this happens I believ Sony will ride it out at their current price set-up. Sony has put a lot of big events into motion in the weeks leading upto GTA4's launch, which I think they are kind of trying to use in place as a price cut. They have the DS3 and GT5P both due two weeks ahead of the launch, and the PSStore will be getting an update in the first half of April. If that happens to include a Music and Video download service I believe that the combanation of these things will get enough word of mouth going to make Playstation fresh in thier head as they go to pick up a system and GTA4 on April 28th.

Now if Sony does happen to through a price cut in there I would be expecting to see something huge. I think if, they drop the price it will be to 299 for the 40GB, and 399 for the 80GB. Right now I think if I was in charge at Sony I would be in a difficult spot, because on one hand you have MGS4 coming in June which will spark some sales, and you could stand to get some good profits for a change. On the other hand you know the price has to drop sometime, and mabye it would be better to put the price in a more casual positionduring a casual time of year.

So here is the hypothetical situation. Say MS does there price drop of 30, 50, 50, and this is basically it from MS besides major advertising of the game towards 360. No say Sony 1) Launches the video/audio download section of the PSstore 2)Drop the price by 100, and 100. Will the momentum this creates be big enough in the long run to be benifical or will it still leave them to far behind Wii to make it worth while? Can Home make it out fast enough to ride the momentum, and then create its own?

I think their is enough stuff going on with the PS3 throught the year to keep the momentum up, and make it the must have this winter, but I also think Sony has a good chance of skrewing it up. If they can market well enough at a casual level, about Home, PSstore's media content, and Blu-ray 2.0 I think the agression would pay off.

Tbh, I do not expect Sony to make the first move. They would really surprise me if they did. I think MS has more space to let the price of the 360 drop a bit. Sony is still compensating its previous losses.

Sure, I do hope for a pricedrop of 50 euro by MS and in a response to that Sony will drop with 100 euro, but I think we're all doing wishfull thinking for the moment.

There is only one chance for Sony dropping PS3 price again... so soon...

GTA4 + 360 + price cut + (new model?) --> sends sales soaring worldwide (i.e. 2x-3x current sales).

Then I guess Sony will be forced to follow suit with another price cut???

no price drop for Sony, for now
maybe for MGS4 (I suppose there is a deal with Konami) or later ...

but dont expect too much effect of the Xbox360 price drop
it is a little one
and GTA4 is not as exclusive as Halo3 was ...

of course the Xbox360 will be really cheaper now but Arcade is not the model people will buy, so the price difference between the PS3/Xbox360 will not be huge.

sales will 2-3 fold increase in NA but only momentally
in PAL sales will double but REALLY momentally
no effect in japan (less than 10k/week)