Sorry, I didn't mean to be rude, it wasn't a exactly well written answer. About 1:1 ports being easier, I will put this responsability not on the hardware, but on the software. PS4 and X1 SDKs are way more mature and easy to work than previous ones.

But about compilers, I don't see a big difference (except for the guy that has to write it). You will write C/C++ code and the compiler will do the job. That's it.

PS4 is in relativity to PS3 due to launch price alone. This gen has also been better with transition to new hardware(pretty much everything is cross get) so leaving behind the past gen is an easier decision. I say yes to front loading.

I feel its more of an X units at Y price point as opposed to time.

PS3 price $500/600 = 585/$700 in 2014 dollars. PS4 in 2006 dollars is roughly $340. Now imagine launch PS3 sales at $340.

Manufacturers went cheap on the hardware this gen, that in turn will create better sales. Xbox is probably selling better(obviously opinion) due to it having brand loyalty after its first full gen(Xbox original only had half the PS2 gen to make a name for itself), though when price aligned is only (X360)$300/400 is $360/465. X360 was also supply restricted for the first 5 or so months of 2006(at least in the USA.)

It means that the casual consumer who would previously have bought a console late in the cycle has been distracted by tablets and phones. Many of whom will undoubtedly not buy a console this gen.

Over a year in, the ps4 is one of the best selling consoles of all time, and the xbox one is doing well. I don't see how people keep writing this off as front loaded when sales aren't showing any signs of declining.

Short answer:

If the sales curves for PS4 and Xbox One were the same as for their predecessors (assuming these end up at 90m), they would sell 203 and 120 million respectively. That's nuts. Ergo, this gen must be more front loaded. It doesn't mean they will sell less. Just quicker.

Long answer:

The last generation was an odd one. Wii started very strongly and fizzled out quickly, and PS2 sold 50 million after the next generation had started. That's more than most consoles sell lifetime... The Wii and PS2 stole some early sales from the HD twins. The market's confusion with Sony's fuck-ups and the Xbox being a weak brand at that moment didn't help them either.

PS3 and Xbox 360 started weak and peaked on their 5th and 6th year, respectively. If you look at their sales curves, they're pretty abnormal, especially for Xbox 360 with Kinect, which went on to sell 20 million units. But also with PS3, with a huge jump in sales with the rebranding and release of the slim in 2009.

This generation started with a bang and, unless the market has somehow grown by a huge amount (something that seems doubtful), we can assume that strong early sales will lead to weaker late sales, relative to their start. In other words, these consoles will have more "normal" sales curves with peaks in their 3rd or 4th year. Unless something crazy happens with VR or some other unknown factor, that is.

This doesn't mean that PS4 sales will plummet in year three. I have seen people use this "frontloaded" stuff to argue that PS4 will have weaker sales in 2015 than in 2014, and yes, that's just BS. I also fully expect PS4 to sell well over 100 million. But there's no denying this generation is more front loaded than the last.

250 million.

Oh... you mean sales. In terms of exclusive software they certainly arent.

In sales we cant really say yet. It will only be front loaded if sales drop later.

Front loaded

Top loaded

It's because I believe that the market has shrunk this generation. Meaning that if the new consoles sell better than than previous generations, they can't go much higher in following years, likely peaking in year 2 instead of 3 or 4.

My basis for a shrunk market is that the previous generation was dominated by casual who I believe have moved on to mobile. Not only the Wii, but also the PS3 and 360 had a good amount of casuals thanks to their motion controllers.

So it's not based on hard facts but more logic and the extremely low sales of Wii U which are due to the loss of its casual demographic.

It has a meaning, but it can only be told for sure when the gen is definitively over. Also, not necessarily a whole gen can be front loaded or not, each of its platforms can or cannot be so. During 7th gen, IIRC, Wii peaked early while PS3 and XB360 did it later, but XB360 also had an earlier lower yearly peak, followed by a small drop, then it recovered and had its second and absolute peak (PS3 instead grew steadily without yearly drops, so it had only one yearly peak).