It's because I believe that the market has shrunk this generation. Meaning that if the new consoles sell better than than previous generations, they can't go much higher in following years, likely peaking in year 2 instead of 3 or 4.
My basis for a shrunk market is that the previous generation was dominated by casual who I believe have moved on to mobile. Not only the Wii, but also the PS3 and 360 had a good amount of casuals thanks to their motion controllers.
So it's not based on hard facts but more logic and the extremely low sales of Wii U which are due to the loss of its casual demographic.
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