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Forums - Sales Discussion - Amazon US January monthly bestsellers and general amazon based discussions

Roronaa_chan said:
AlfredoTurkey said:
Pionner said:
 


 Things have been going in the complete opposite direction this generation.

Except since Oct where the Xbone has won... every... single... week.


Except every week in January...

Btw you said this is an "opinion thread", but it is not.


The last chart we have is Jan 03, and the PS4 is still losing in the US. What are you talking about?



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AlfredoTurkey said:


The last chart we have is Jan 03, and the PS4 is still losing in the US. What are you talking about?


This is an Amazon charts thread. PS4 has been winning every week

And even if it was about VGC numbers... X1 outsold PS4 by only 3k even though the price was still 350. The effect of the cut was already tapering off and is nearly void now. PS4 is in the clear to win every NPD until the holidays unless MS drops to 300 and Sony does nothing.



Protendo said:
AlfredoTurkey said:

And you say the PS4 is winning. It hasn't won since... what, October? What is the overall lead now? Like, 600,000? Simple math says that Xbone will catch up and pull ahead at some point unless the PS4 can somehow start winning weeks again.

As someone who minored in both math and statistics, could you explain this simple math that allows you to feel so confident in your reasons behind the Xbox One's January win?


The demographics. People tend to think their views are the views of the world when that's rarely the case. I'd say that the VAST majority of us are fans of ICO. It's legendary. But ask the typical 16 year old kid who only plays COD, Titanfall, Madden and Halo about it and you'll like get called a homosexual slur or a "what?!?".

The Xbox 360 won the US because MS knows the majority of sales are to those people. They know those people. They own those people and it's those people that think Xbox=gaming. That's why COD on Xbone is outselling COD on PS4 in the US, even though it's being sold on a console with an install base that is currently around 600,000 behind. 

I just don't think there are enough of us to matter in the US. The Madden, COD crowed will win the day imo. But, we'll just have to wait and see.



Roronaa_chan said:
AlfredoTurkey said:
 


The last chart we have is Jan 03, and the PS4 is still losing in the US. What are you talking about?


This is an Amazon charts thread. PS4 has been winning every week

And even if it was about VGC numbers... X1 outsold PS4 by only 3k even though the price was still 350. The effect of the cut was already tapering off and is nearly void now. PS4 is in the clear to win every NPD until the holidays unless MS drops to 300 and Sony does nothing.


You say they are in the clear, but until we actually SEE NPD's numbers, none of us know and we're all just guessing.



Yes but I'm guessing based on post-holiday trends and you're guessing based on outdated, holiday trends. Neither is certain but one is more likely than the other.



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AlfredoTurkey said:
Protendo said:
AlfredoTurkey said:

And you say the PS4 is winning. It hasn't won since... what, October? What is the overall lead now? Like, 600,000? Simple math says that Xbone will catch up and pull ahead at some point unless the PS4 can somehow start winning weeks again.

As someone who minored in both math and statistics, could you explain this simple math that allows you to feel so confident in your reasons behind the Xbox One's January win?


The demographics. People tend to think their views are the views of the world when that's rarely the case. I'd say that the VAST majority of us are fans of ICO. It's legendary. But ask the typical 16 year old kid who only plays COD, Titanfall, Madden and Halo about it and you'll like get called a homosexual slur or a "what?!?".

The Xbox 360 won the US because MS knows the majority of sales are to those people. They know those people. They own those people and it's those people that think Xbox=gaming. That's why COD on Xbone is outselling COD on PS4 in the US, even though it's being sold on a console with an install base that is currently around 600,000 behind. 

I just don't think there are enough of us to matter in the US. The Madden, COD crowed will win the day imo. But, we'll just have to wait and see.


Thanks for getting back to me.  I'm only intrested in the math.  I'm a cold calculating logical kind of guy and find formulas and calculations interesting. As far as your post, Microsoft has proven that they don't know the US/Gamers as well as you claim with their disasterous pre-launch, but this has nothing to do with the math I was interested in.  COD on the Xbox was outselling the PS4 because of the exclusive marketing agreement.  Same thing happened with Watch Dogs landslide win on the PS4. These cases have an extra variable that must be accounted for.



AlfredoTurkey said:

Where is YOUR proof? Where is ANYBODIES proof in this thread? This is an opinion thread. It's my opinion that Xbone will win and I've given my reasons. If you don't agree, that's fine. In the end, time will prove one of us right and one of us wrong. I'm fine with being wrong. Are you?

And you say the PS4 is winning. It hasn't won since... what, October? What is the overall lead now? Like, 600,000? Simple math says that Xbone will catch up and pull ahead at some point unless the PS4 can somehow start winning weeks again.

This thread isn't opinion based. This thread is monitoring a basic fact, exact rankings on Amazon at certain times over certain time periods. That's not opinion based at all.

http://www.computerandvideogames.com/468288/xbox-360-and-wii-owners-have-migrated-to-ps4-sony-says/ Here is proof(statistically gathered) of gamers migrating from Wii/360 to PS4

Also the proof to as the PS4 winning is this thread. Amazon rankings(weekly/monthly) have proven to be an accurate measure to judge who has sold more during the weeks/months. It's the reason why for some months only certain users on the site posted in Amazon threads and now another subset of users are the only ones posting. Because the figures are basically impossible to refute.

VGC still hasn't posted any weeks numbers yet since the last week for 2014(ending Jan 3rd) in case that's what you're refering to for PS4 to showhow start winning weeks again?



AlfredoTurkey said:
Protendo said:
AlfredoTurkey said:

And you say the PS4 is winning. It hasn't won since... what, October? What is the overall lead now? Like, 600,000? Simple math says that Xbone will catch up and pull ahead at some point unless the PS4 can somehow start winning weeks again.

As someone who minored in both math and statistics, could you explain this simple math that allows you to feel so confident in your reasons behind the Xbox One's January win?


The demographics. People tend to think their views are the views of the world when that's rarely the case. I'd say that the VAST majority of us are fans of ICO. It's legendary. But ask the typical 16 year old kid who only plays COD, Titanfall, Madden and Halo about it and you'll like get called a homosexual slur or a "what?!?".

The Xbox 360 won the US because MS knows the majority of sales are to those people. They know those people. They own those people and it's those people that think Xbox=gaming. That's why COD on Xbone is outselling COD on PS4 in the US, even though it's being sold on a console with an install base that is currently around 600,000 behind. 

I just don't think there are enough of us to matter in the US. The Madden, COD crowed will win the day imo. But, we'll just have to wait and see.

1) Amazon has been a near flawless predictor of the NPD winner, including when X1 won the holidays.

2) The holiday period ended with the X1 trailing the PS4 by several hundred thousands of units (far more if AMD's recent statement is accurate).

3) PS4 has been leading on Amazon since the holidays.

4) COD: AW sold more in NA on X1 than PS4, Madden NFL 15 sold more on PS4 than X1 in NA, and 3rd party games have done exceedingly well on the PS4 compared to the X! (Refer to the aforementioned Amazon charts.).

In a nutshell, all of these facts contradict your opinion. The PS4 is ahead and appears to have been growing that lead for about a month. The casual gaming crowd in NA is buying more PS4 games (CoD is rightfully cited, but one data point does not imply a trend.). Just look at GTAV, the ultimate casual gamer game, and its sales. The PS4/X1 sales are the reverse of the PS3/X360 sales. We may not be observing the WW PS4 trouncing of the X1 in NA, but we can't ignore the tale being told by the facts.



Protendo said:
AlfredoTurkey said:
Protendo said:
AlfredoTurkey said:

And you say the PS4 is winning. It hasn't won since... what, October? What is the overall lead now? Like, 600,000? Simple math says that Xbone will catch up and pull ahead at some point unless the PS4 can somehow start winning weeks again.

As someone who minored in both math and statistics, could you explain this simple math that allows you to feel so confident in your reasons behind the Xbox One's January win?


The demographics. People tend to think their views are the views of the world when that's rarely the case. I'd say that the VAST majority of us are fans of ICO. It's legendary. But ask the typical 16 year old kid who only plays COD, Titanfall, Madden and Halo about it and you'll like get called a homosexual slur or a "what?!?".

The Xbox 360 won the US because MS knows the majority of sales are to those people. They know those people. They own those people and it's those people that think Xbox=gaming. That's why COD on Xbone is outselling COD on PS4 in the US, even though it's being sold on a console with an install base that is currently around 600,000 behind. 

I just don't think there are enough of us to matter in the US. The Madden, COD crowed will win the day imo. But, we'll just have to wait and see.


Thanks for getting back to me.  I'm only intrested in the math.  I'm a cold calculating logical kind of guy and find formulas and calculations interesting. As far as your post, Microsoft has proven that they don't know the US/Gamers as well as you claim with their disasterous pre-launch, but this has nothing to do with the math I was interested in.  COD on the Xbox was outselling the PS4 because of the exclusive marketing agreement.  Same thing happened with Watch Dogs landslide win on the PS4. These cases have an extra variable that must be accounted for.

Exactly.  As I always say, past numbers taken in a vacuum are not an accurate basis for determining present or future potential for success.  If they were, Elder Scrolls would still be super niche and FPSs would be playing second fiddle to platformers.  And one variable in this instance is actually demographics.  The demographics frequenting malls, Amazon, etc shift during the holidays; it's a different group who are less informed on the product and more easily motivated by deals and bargains.  But that's once a year and Sony *chose* to *allow* Xbox to have it.  They barely tried.  But trust me, that won't happen this year with their heavy hitters landing.



*snip* double post