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Forums - Sales - 2015 hardware sales predictions

ThatDanishGamer said:
Sully_The_Best said:
PS4 - 18

X1 - 9

Wii U - 6

3DS - 12

Vita - 4

Why would Wii U sell 6 million next year when only sold around 3 this year, a year with its biggest franchises?

Price cut and other exclusive games will be released



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Darwinianevolution said:

PS4---20.5 m

PS4 will surpass the 20m units sold per year. The more it sells, the more people will choose it over the XBone. If they made online free it would effectively murder the XBone in cold blood, but that won't happen.

XBone--6 m (1,5m with Halo bump)

XBone can't effectively compete with PS4 without a lot of investment (pricedrops, bundles, timed exclusives...), so the gap between them will continue. The only significant bump the XBone will get is Halo, before and after Halo the console will be constantly pummeled by the PS4.

WiiU---3.5 m

WiiU has used all of its big guns, so the weekly sales will be healthy enough to repair the losses of the first year, but without any significant benefits or spectacular sales. WiiU might sell more, since it already has a steady library, though. This console will have the most stable sales of all.

3DS----7.5m

I suppose the next year would be the real test of fire for the 3DS, XBone and WiiU. 3DS has the N3DS coming to the west, but has no system-seller (Even Youkai Watch probably won't make a big difference in the west). The most optimistic prediction for 3DS is selling as much as it did this year. I hope Nintendo keeps the handheld alive until 2018, but that is too optimistic.

Vita---1.2m

Vita might surpass the 10m units by the end of the year, China won't be interested in the handheld when they are used to mobile. Sony won't make anymore AAA or AA (or even A) exclusive for the console when they can put it on the PS4 or PS3 and sell way more.

The last gen consoles sell well enough to keep its price. Maybe at the end of the year the Wii is finally discontinued, but I'm sure the console is really cheap to produce, and it makes a small profit, enough to keep the system alive.

 

So, the Xbox One will sell less next year compared to this year, despite the high probability of a lower price throughout the year and their biggest exclusive dropping in the holidays. I wish you the best of luck with that prediction coming to fruition, because I simply don't see that happening. 

The rest of your numbers seem reasonable though. 



Current gaming platforms - Switch, PlayStation 4, Xbox One, Wii U, New 3DS, PC

PS4 around 18 million units
Xone around 10 million
3DS around 7.5 million
Wii U 2.75 million units
Vita maybe 1.5 million



Please excuse my (probally) poor grammar

PenguinZ said:
Darwinianevolution said:

PS4---20.5 m

PS4 will surpass the 20m units sold per year. The more it sells, the more people will choose it over the XBone. If they made online free it would effectively murder the XBone in cold blood, but that won't happen.

XBone--6 m (1,5m with Halo bump)

XBone can't effectively compete with PS4 without a lot of investment (pricedrops, bundles, timed exclusives...), so the gap between them will continue. The only significant bump the XBone will get is Halo, before and after Halo the console will be constantly pummeled by the PS4.

WiiU---3.5 m

WiiU has used all of its big guns, so the weekly sales will be healthy enough to repair the losses of the first year, but without any significant benefits or spectacular sales. WiiU might sell more, since it already has a steady library, though. This console will have the most stable sales of all.

3DS----7.5m

I suppose the next year would be the real test of fire for the 3DS, XBone and WiiU. 3DS has the N3DS coming to the west, but has no system-seller (Even Youkai Watch probably won't make a big difference in the west). The most optimistic prediction for 3DS is selling as much as it did this year. I hope Nintendo keeps the handheld alive until 2018, but that is too optimistic.

Vita---1.2m

Vita might surpass the 10m units by the end of the year, China won't be interested in the handheld when they are used to mobile. Sony won't make anymore AAA or AA (or even A) exclusive for the console when they can put it on the PS4 or PS3 and sell way more.

The last gen consoles sell well enough to keep its price. Maybe at the end of the year the Wii is finally discontinued, but I'm sure the console is really cheap to produce, and it makes a small profit, enough to keep the system alive.

 

So, the Xbox One will sell less next year compared to this year, despite the high probability of a lower price throughout the year and their biggest exclusive dropping in the holidays. I wish you the best of luck with that prediction coming to fruition, because I simply don't see that happening. 

The rest of your numbers seem reasonable though. 

Maybe it's a bit pessimistic, but I don't think Microsoft is going to keep throwing money in bundles, pricecuts and other offers. I think that, without all of this aggresive marketing (they abandoned kineckt, they made tons of black friday deals, they paid for exclusives...), the PS4 momentum will just absorb all possible XBone customers.The XBone wasn't able to gain momentum until november, and with all of the deals they had to make, I'm sure they have spent a lot.  And I don't think Microsoft will continue to spend so much without Microsoft-level benefits.



You know it deserves the GOTY.

Come join The 2018 Obscure Game Monthly Review Thread.

PS4 - 18m
XB1 - 10m
3DS - 7m
WiU - 2.5m
Vita - 1.5m

All these can improve based on price cuts. Specifically, XB1 will do better the sooner MS realizes $400 is too much, even more so with a deeper 2015 holiday price cut. Dunno how much they cost to make, but if Sony could drop the price of Vita down to $125-150 and really push it as a PS4 peripheral first, handheld second, it'd gain some real traction.



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Ps4: 18m

One: 10m

WiiU: 4.5m

3DS: 8m

PsVita: 2m



With every Xbox one sale the word of mouth will spread, up to this point it has been simply been beat by bad word of mouth and months of unwarranted bashing. Now that the tides are turning I imagine it will be an extremely close race from this point on,



shloob said:
With every Xbox one sale the word of mouth will spread, up to this point it has been simply been beat by bad word of mouth and months of unwarranted bashing. Now that the tides are turning I imagine it will be an extremely close race from this point on,


It really depends on your definition of close.



Will update shortly.



 

Here lies the dearly departed Nintendomination Thread.

PS4:18M

XB1: 9M

Wii U: 3M