It was bound to happen. The 7th gen was something that would never be repeated, where all three consoles sold great. The Wii captured an entirely new market (and one which probably won't ever be captured again) and then that market left. This gen, sales will be back to 6th gen levels.

Also, I think your XBO estimate is too low. That would imply a 57% marketshare for the PS4. I think it'll be more like 120 PS4, 75 XBO, 25 Wii U.

Makes zero sense. Europe at least should've increased.

But XB1 was significantly overtracked in Nov so why would the gut feeling tell you it's undertracked? ;o

Because we should have hope duh

plus I bet you its overtracked in EU

when you sell 80k outside of the big 3 EU countries then theres something wrong

plus its not playstation

This Gen should be much shorter than the last.
MS had 8 years, Sony 7. I think, both will bring their next gen consoles in 2019, neither of the two consoles is really powerful and both should look totally outdated by then.
It's nothing like 360 being extremely powerful back in 2005.
Nintendo will probably be a little earlier, 2017 or 2018.

So we will see about 6 years main lifetime against up to 8 years. With a market, that isn't really grwoing any more, at least without China and so on.

So yes, the current gen consoles will sell less but that also willbe a shorter lifespan.

As for the console makers, Nintendo will sell by far the least. They might have better sales in 2015, they might have worse sales.
MS and Sony will still have their peak years. Both consoles will get cheaper, big titles like Uncharted 4, Halo 5 and new ip's are yet to be released and so on. And MS, other than Nintendo, will be much stronger than back in original Xbox days.
Another thing is last gen consoles getting discontiued sooner or later. 360 for sure sooner. Again, PS4One will be cheaper by then.

That would be a first

Yeah it wouldn't surprise me if XB1 was quite overtracked in EU and ROW. The PS4:XB1 ratio there is too small.

Depend.

PS2 have sold 900K in the first November NPD, and 1.9M in December.

Have more than double the sales... So, PS4 have chance for sell 1.6M to 1.8M.

XBOX 360 sold 1.67M in the November 2011 NPD, and 1.72M in the December of 2011. That is +3% of boost...

If will happen this scenario, December 2014 will be: PS4: 1.7M, and XO: 1.28M.

But the gap is too much.

Let's say 1,500,000 for PS4 and 1,400,000 for XO.

-----------------------------------

First week: 280K XO - 225K PS4

Second: 320K XO - 300K PS4

Third: 350K XO - 450K PS4 (huge boost thanks Destiny bundle at 350$)

fourth: 310K XO - 375K PS4

Five: 150K XO (close PS4 because last week of 350$ price) - 150K PS4

------------------------------------

Yes because does someone seriously think that it did almost 65k + outside of the big 3 gaming countries when xbox one is dead in EU.

How much do you think it'll sell? 120m should be very easy for PS4. Only 20-25% more than PS3 with the amazing headstart it's already having right now vs. PS3? It would need to slow way down for the 120m to be out of reach.