I get what you mean, I actually agree with you. Just that the numbers I am basing my theories off slightly differ. Last gen the console market grew from around 200M the previous gen to 260M for last gen. Yes, it will shrink this gen and will be no more than 200M. So if you splt that 200M to how I think it would go, then we have PS4@120M, XB1@60M and wiiU@20M. Give or take 5-10M for all three consoles in either direction. 

Ths holds true especially when you consider that(as you have pointed out)  the bulk of the poeple doing the buying now are the early adopters. These are the people buying either cause they have the money, are loyalists or just cause they like being first. The people waiting to buy a console at $300 or even $200 has not come into the equation yet. Those are the people that will buy a console and probaly buy nothing more than COD, FIFA, Madden or GTA.

Stiil wii u hasn't get a price cut,it's being the most expensive nintedo system ever,do not dooming so hard these predictions!13m gamecube sold in two years, its first two years,that's the 60% of its total sales.

This happened thanks to the two consecutive price cuts of -50$ & -50$ respectively,which is logically the reason that wii u is currently being dominated by gc!

The repeatitive comparison of gc and wii u will be more interesting now that we are going on the third year,because gc sold really fast in its first two years due to the brave price cuts and then fell dramatically,wii u will possibly get it first real price cut in 2015!

No offense, but I find your predictions to be stupidly optimistic, especially for the Wii U, the thing would be considered lucky to surpass 15M lifetime at this point.

Are you thinking Wii U will sell more than 4m in 2015? Because that's how much GC sold in its declining 3rd year. It needs to if it wants to start catching up to the GC.

Don't use the word attacking,I wasn't agressive!Just shocked from the unjust mistake!

We have to wait for the price cuts,if it still perfoms bad,then doomed!

We can be optimistic,as I aforesaid gc sold 13m in its first two years,with two consecutive price cuts of 50$ and 50$ respectively,the 60% of its total sales(the probable reason why it dominates wii u)!Why wii u with 250$ price in 2015 and 200$ price in 2016 wouldn't sell more than its first two years?

I know,you will tell me that it wouldn't and I will understand it!

I might be criticized for this argument but I will use it!Windows 8/8.1 reached two years in the market with a bad perfromance,seeing small growth and some drops,completely doomed from analysts and journalists!

All of a sudden,it jumped by 7% in november reaching 18% marketshare,while previously it was falling,forcing ms to announce windows 10!But finally absorbed a 7% of the xp users and it was first time that windows 7 got almost nothing from xp share and win8.1/8  got the lion's share!

Who would expect the unbelievable resurgance of windows8.1/8 which put the release date of windows 10  8 months later!Some great moves from ms helped windows8.1/8,something that even ms didn't expect to happen,that's why it was hasty to announce windows 10...

Such a great move in wii u case is two consecutive brave price cuts!

I don't really get the comparison with Windows 8. The marketshare didn't rise because it became cheaper or better but because OEMs started to sell new PCs only with Win 8.

What I fear with Wii U is that it won't get too much of a boost from a price cut because of a shrinking audience. The price is irrelevant if people don't think that the product has value. I can't see many children who will only get a single console opt for the Wii U instead of PS4/X1. That perception could be completely wrong but this year's numbers don't fill me with confidence. Another thing is the future software lineup. There are a lot of medium games coming next year and only 1 big one that will actually push a lot of consoles. And what's the 2016 lineup? What will make people want a Wii U in 2016 that don't already have one?

So let's get crazy and say Wii U will have a $100 pricecut in 2015. How many consoles will that sell? 5m? 6m? certainly not many more. Then it's at 16m LTD. What will sell Wii Us from that point on? It already isn't the most popular console around and I doubt that status will better itself in the coming years.

I'm not optimistic for Wii U and at its current state It will be feat to break even into 20m.

Yeah,the comparison isn't so good,I implied that!I used it to help my toughts!

I told  my opinion!,I will recapitulate because I like doing it!

(Gc sold fast and the most of its lifetime sales(60%)were on its first two years(13m) owing to the big sequntial price drops(-50$ &-50$)[It declinded significantly in the third year],as a result wii u trailing quite behind it!By similar price cuts I would expect wii u  to had a much better 2015/16 than the 2013/2014!)

I understand your disagreement and anxiety!

As for the 2016 line up!What do you think about pokken fighters?

First, your windows argument is a bad one. Simply because the thing about windows is that no one really has a choice. Everyone buying a laptop in the past 2 years automatically is buying into windows 8. Anyone trying to buy a new OS for their PC is automatically buying into windows 8. There isn't a single other OS that is directly competing with windows. You can't just walk into a store and buy a OSX and install it on your laptop at home without some serious tech savvy.

Now back to the wiiU. I feel for nintendo and al, but lets call a spade a spade. The wiiU was DOA and is still dead and will when compared to everything else in its market, will remain dead. Thats not saying that it may not hit 20M in lifetime sales, or maybe a little more. The way I see it; its the cheapest console on the market, and not just selling the worst, but has been grossly outpaced by the other two consoles on the market within their first years of being on the market while costing significantly more. Its a sad place to be for nintendo or its fans if they are somehow looking to a price drop making the cheapest console already cheaper just to get maybe 4M sales in a single year. 

Before announcements:

Wii U: 40m

PS4: 100m

Xbox: 60m

Post-PS4 launch:

Wii U: 16m

PS4: 120m

Xbox One: 40m

Here is my problem with your prediction.

You are aiming for 180M to PS4+X1. PS3+X360 only managed to reach almost 170M until now and they had a big life span. We also have to consider japan that had 10M PS3, something i am not sure PS4 can make, and almost 1.7M X360, which i am 100% sure the XONE won't make.

We also have to consider how powerfull those consoles were compared to PC, and how this will affect this gen. 

What i want to say is that i don't expect big growth over those 170M, if any.