By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close
vkaraujo on 26 December 2014
Edit Thread
Intrinsic said:
vivster said:

Well it would certainly be cool if you are right. My opinion is still that the gaming industry and the entertainment electronics industry as a whole changed during last gen. So much that it will be hard to predict the following years from just the first year which is dominated by early adaptors.

I get what you mean, I actually agree with you. Just that the numbers I am basing my theories off slightly differ. Last gen the console market grew from around 200M the previous gen to 260M for last gen. Yes, it will shrink this gen and will be no more than 200M. So if you splt that 200M to how I think it would go, then we have PS4@120M, XB1@60M and wiiU@20M. Give or take 5-10M for all three consoles in either direction. 

Ths holds true especially when you consider that(as you have pointed out)  the bulk of the poeple doing the buying now are the early adopters. These are the people buying either cause they have the money, are loyalists or just cause they like being first. The people waiting to buy a console at $300 or even $200 has not come into the equation yet. Those are the people that will buy a console and probaly buy nothing more than COD, FIFA, Madden or GTA.

Here is my problem with your prediction.

You are aiming for 180M to PS4+X1. PS3+X360 only managed to reach almost 170M until now and they had a big life span. We also have to consider japan that had 10M PS3, something i am not sure PS4 can make, and almost 1.7M X360, which i am 100% sure the XONE won't make.

We also have to consider how powerfull those consoles were compared to PC, and how this will affect this gen. 

What i want to say is that i don't expect big growth over those 170M, if any.