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Forums - Gaming - Beginning of gen predictions vs. predictions now

Welfare said:
Why do you think the Wii U will do so well? It is tracking behind the Gamecube, no way does it do over 22 million.

Mine has changed as well. At first it was XB1 at 80m, PS4 at 90m, and Wii U at 30m. But now, I think XB1 at 60m, PS4 at 110m, and Wii U at 16m.

 

 

It doesn't mean anything!Xb1 is tracking above xbox360,will it outsell xbox360?No,It will probably sell the half of xbox360 sales...

The comparison between wii u and gamecube isn't so fair,because gamecube had two consecutive price cuts in its  two first years -50$ and -50$  respectively and sold really fast,the 60% of its lt sales were in these two years!When wii u will get two brave price cuts and still not doing well then doom 22m+ predictions!

Let us be optimistic,as you are by predicting 60m xb1...



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My prediction is still the same except for Wii U

PS4: 100m (no change here, always thought xbox one is gonna make it harder for ps4 in the US)
XB1: 65m(no change here, always knew it wasn't going to perform in Europe as well as Xbox 360, although there's no kinect around this time to give another boost during its cycle).
Wii U: 20m ( way behind gamecube make me thing it's almost impossible for it to at  least tie gamecube considering his best selling games are already out).



vivster said:
Intrinsic said:

Ok... here goes.

Lets start with year one for the PS4/XB1. 2014. Not including their launch year. The PS4 is on track to sell ~16M consolesand the XB1 ~8M. Take into consideration that this will be one of therir two lowest selling full years (first is their first full launch year where they are most expensive and fewest games and second is the transition year when PS5/XB2 is released).

What the sales of this year shows, is that the PS4 is on track to sell at least 20M consoles per year; well, worst case scenario 16M/yr and best case scenario 22M/yr. But lets just leave it at 20M. And I will go with ~10M or ~12M for the XB1. Now the reason the XB1 number seems low is because i expect over 80% of its sales every year to come mostly from one region, NA.

Now I expect that these consoles will not be replaced till 2020. That gives them 5 years of peak sales 2015-2019. So, if the PS4 sells at least 20M per year for the next 5 years then it will have sold 100M by the end of 2020. This is not including whatever sales it has made in 2013 and 2014. So by the time the PS5 is coming out it should be at at least 120M. Apply the same math to the XB1 and that should be at aound 60M, at least.

So its not me being optimistic, I am just looking at the current data and current trends and factoring in how long i expect the gen to be and how I know sales tend to grow as a generation gets older compared to their first years on the market.

Fair enough, though I expect the current generation to be a lot more top heavy than any generation before it. Times are changing. The only thing that could make the consoles sore again is if VR really hits off and drags along a lot of casuals.

But how about the Wii U? It sold 3m last year and 3m this year even though sales should've risen in the second year. Unless Wii U drops to $200 next year I don't see it selling more than this year and it's only going down from there. If you're really going by previous generations and trends you should see that Wii U is tracking significantly below Gamecube which sold 22m. What does the Wii U do to reverse the trend?


When wii u sold 3m this year?Did the year end?it's at 2.7m as of 6th december...

You do realise that you have make a big mistake by saying the bolded...



PS4 - 110M
XB1 - 50M
WiiU - 18M



My 8th gen collection

tak13 said:

When wii u sold 3m this year?Did the year end?it's at 2.7m as of 6th december...

You do realise that you have make a big mistake by saying the bolded...

So it will sell 3.2m if it makes you happy. That's still flat on the second year as far as statictiscs are concerned.



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vivster said:

Fair enough, though I expect the current generation to be a lot more top heavy than any generation before it. Times are changing. The only thing that could make the consoles sore again is if VR really hits off and drags along a lot of casuals.

But how about the Wii U? It sold 3m last year and 3m this year even though sales should've risen in the second year. Unless Wii U drops to $200 next year I don't see it selling more than this year and it's only going down from there. If you're really going by previous generations and trends you should see that Wii U is tracking significantly below Gamecube which sold 22m. What does the Wii U do to reverse the trend?

I don't think this generation will be top heavy at all. I actually don't think there is anything different from how the consoles this gen are selling compared to last gen or any gen before it. Only major differences this gen is that there isn't a $600 console on the market and there isn't a casual centric console compared to last gen. But if you look at first year sales this gane, last gen and even th egen before it, you will find that whatever was the best selling console in all those gens was pretty much doing just as well as whatever is the best selling console this gen is doing.

As the consoles get cheaper, the market will grow. That has been the case every gen before now and I still think it will be the case now.

as or the WiiU, well.. call my 23M estimate a pity vote of confidence :). Serioulsy though, I feel the WiiU sales will become better in the next 2 or so years. Or whenever you can buy one for around $150. My reasoning here is that i feel a lot of the poeple that own a PS4/XB1 will rather buy a wiiU as a second console. The PS4/XB1 are too similar and both demand a subscription to a service to get the most out of them. So we won't see a lot of people buying both of those consoles. That late second console boom will be what will finally take the wiiU over 20M



27m for WiiU? How on earth does anyone reach that sort of prediction. Look at what it's doing. Look at what it's done over 25/26 months including 3 holiday seasons, not even 10m.

In fact you expect it to sell the same as it has been up to early 2019 to reach 27m.



 

Intrinsic said:
vivster said:

Fair enough, though I expect the current generation to be a lot more top heavy than any generation before it. Times are changing. The only thing that could make the consoles sore again is if VR really hits off and drags along a lot of casuals.

But how about the Wii U? It sold 3m last year and 3m this year even though sales should've risen in the second year. Unless Wii U drops to $200 next year I don't see it selling more than this year and it's only going down from there. If you're really going by previous generations and trends you should see that Wii U is tracking significantly below Gamecube which sold 22m. What does the Wii U do to reverse the trend?

I don't think this generation will be top heavy at all. I actually don't think there is anything different from how the consoles this gen are selling compared to last gen or any gen before it. Only major differences this gen is that there isn't a $600 console on the market and there isn't a casual centric console compared to last gen. But if you look at first year sales this gane, last gen and even th egen before it, you will find that whatever was the best selling console in all those gens was pretty much doing just as well as whatever is the best selling console this gen is doing.

As the consoles get cheaper, the market will grow. That has been the case every gen before now and I still think it will be the case now.

as or the WiiU, well.. call my 23M estimate a pity vote of confidence :). Serioulsy though, I feel the WiiU sales will become better in the next 2 or so years. Or whenever you can buy one for around $150. My reasoning here is that i feel a lot of the poeple that own a PS4/XB1 will rather buy a wiiU as a second console. The PS4/XB1 are too similar and both demand a subscription to a service to get the most out of them. So we won't see a lot of people buying both of those consoles. That late second console boom will be what will finally take the wiiU over 20M

Well it would certainly be cool if you are right. My opinion is still that the gaming industry and the entertainment electronics industry as a whole changed during last gen. So much that it will be hard to predict the following years from just the first year which is dominated by early adaptors.



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vivster said:
tak13 said:

When wii u sold 3m this year?Did the year end?it's at 2.7m as of 6th december...

You do realise that you have make a big mistake by saying the bolded...

So it will sell 3.2m if it makes you happy. That's still flat on the second year as far as statictiscs are concerned.

Still wrong,4 weeks remain from 6th of dec,wii u won't sell only 500k in 4 weeks!3.7m at least,december is five weeks for vgc like npd!265k as of 15th dec, 343k as of 21th dec,232k as of 28th dec,117k as of 4th Jan=1m (rounded),so 3.7m!

And these numbers isn't a prediction,is what wii u sold in those weeks in 2013!

You implied 8.5m wii u by the end of the year,ew!Almost all here say 9m...



tak13 said:
vivster said:
tak13 said:

When wii u sold 3m this year?Did the year end?it's at 2.7m as of 6th december...

You do realise that you have make a big mistake by saying the bolded...

So it will sell 3.2m if it makes you happy. That's still flat on the second year as far as statictiscs are concerned.

Still wrong,4 weeks remain from 6th of dec,wii u won't sell only 500k in 4 weeks!3.7m at least,december is five weeks for vgc like npd!265k as of 15th dec, 343k as of 21th dec,232k as of 28th dec,117k as of 4th Jan=1m (rounded),so 3.7m!

And these numbers isn't a prediction,is what wii u sold in those weeks in 2013!

You implied 8.5m wii u by the end of the year,ew!Almost all here say 9m...

I didn't really count the last week that's only 1 day in december. Also expecting some downward adjustments. But nevermind.

Let's go with 3.7m. That's a whooping almost 12% increase over the first full year. And it only needed Nintendo's 2 biggest IPs in the same year. That's some serious performance right there.

Doesn't really change my initial point but thanks for attacking the arbitrary number I pulled out of my ass aka the most unimportant thing in that paragraph.



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