Beginning of gen predictions vs. predictions now

[vivster]

Intrinsic said:

vivster said:

Fair enough, though I expect the current generation to be a lot more top heavy than any generation before it. Times are changing. The only thing that could make the consoles sore again is if VR really hits off and drags along a lot of casuals.

But how about the Wii U? It sold 3m last year and 3m this year even though sales should've risen in the second year. Unless Wii U drops to $200 next year I don't see it selling more than this year and it's only going down from there. If you're really going by previous generations and trends you should see that Wii U is tracking significantly below Gamecube which sold 22m. What does the Wii U do to reverse the trend?

I don't think this generation will be top heavy at all. I actually don't think there is anything different from how the consoles this gen are selling compared to last gen or any gen before it. Only major differences this gen is that there isn't a $600 console on the market and there isn't a casual centric console compared to last gen. But if you look at first year sales this gane, last gen and even th egen before it, you will find that whatever was the best selling console in all those gens was pretty much doing just as well as whatever is the best selling console this gen is doing.

As the consoles get cheaper, the market will grow. That has been the case every gen before now and I still think it will be the case now.

as or the WiiU, well.. call my 23M estimate a pity vote of confidence :). Serioulsy though, I feel the WiiU sales will become better in the next 2 or so years. Or whenever you can buy one for around $150. My reasoning here is that i feel a lot of the poeple that own a PS4/XB1 will rather buy a wiiU as a second console. The PS4/XB1 are too similar and both demand a subscription to a service to get the most out of them. So we won't see a lot of people buying both of those consoles. That late second console boom will be what will finally take the wiiU over 20M

Well it would certainly be cool if you are right. My opinion is still that the gaming industry and the entertainment electronics industry as a whole changed during last gen. So much that it will be hard to predict the following years from just the first year which is dominated by early adaptors.