Beginning of gen predictions vs. predictions now

[vivster]

tak13 said:

vivster said:

tak13 said:

Still wrong,4 weeks remain from 6th of dec,wii u won't sell only 500k in 4 weeks!3.7m at least,december is five weeks for vgc like npd!265k as of 15th dec, 343k as of 21th dec,232k as of 28th dec,117k as of 4th Jan=1m (rounded),so 3.7m!

And these numbers isn't a prediction,is what wii u sold in those weeks in 2013!

You implied 8.5m wii u by the end of the year,ew!Almost all here say 9m...

I didn't really count the last week that's only 1 day in december. Also expecting some downward adjustments. But nevermind.

Let's go with 3.7m. That's a whooping almost 12% increase over the first full year. And it only needed Nintendo's 2 biggest IPs in the same year. That's some serious performance right there.

Doesn't really change my initial point but thanks for attacking the arbitrary number I pulled out of my ass aka the most unimportant thing in that paragraph.

Don't use the word attacking,I wasn't agressive!Just shocked from the unjust mistake!

We have to wait for the price cuts,if it still perfoms bad,then doomed!

We can be optimistic,as I aforesaid gc sold 13m in its first two years,with two consecutive price cuts of 50$ and 50$ respectively,the 60% of its total sales(the probable reason why it dominates wii u)!Why wii u with 250$ price in 2015 and 200$ price in 2016 wouldn't sell more than its first two years?

I know,you will tell me that it wouldn't and I will understand it!

I might be criticized for this argument but I will use it!Windows 8/8.1 reached two years in the market with a bad perfromance,seeing small growth and some drops,completely doomed from analysts and journalists!

All of a sudden,it jumped by 7% in november reaching 18% marketshare,while previously it falling,forcing ms to announce windows 10!But finally absorbed a 7% of the xp users and it was first time that windows 7 got almost nothing from xp share and win8.1/8  got the lion's share!

Who would expect the unbelievable resurgance of windows8.1/8 which put the release date of windows 10  8 months later!Some great moves from ms helped windows8.1/8,something that even ms didn't expect to happen,that's why it was hasty to announce windows 10...

Such a great move in wii u case is two consecutive brave price cuts!

I don't really get the comparison with Windows 8. The marketshare didn't rise because it became cheaper or better but because OEMs started to sell new PCs only with Win 8.

What I fear with Wii U is that it won't get too much of a boost from a price cut because of a shrinking audience. The price is irrelevant if people don't think that the product has value. I can't see many children who will only get a single console opt for the Wii U instead of PS4/X1. That perception could be completely wrong but this year's numbers don't fill me with confidence. Another thing is the future software lineup. There are a lot of medium games coming next year and only 1 big one that will actually push a lot of consoles. And what's the 2016 lineup? What will make people want a Wii U in 2016 that don't already have one?

So let's get crazy and say Wii U will have a $100 pricecut in 2015. How many consoles will that sell? 5m? 6m? certainly not many more. Then it's at 16m LTD. What will sell Wii Us from that point on? It already isn't the most popular console around and I doubt that status will better itself in the coming years.

I'm not optimistic for Wii U and at its current state It will be feat to break even into 20m.