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Forums - Sales Discussion - Why x1 will not win US even at 329$ CROW THREAD

enrageorange on 18 December 2014
theprof00 said:

walmart and target were also the two stores offering the best deals on xb1. Our data has the x1 at 40%, which could mean that 13% of the market was affected by the walmart and target discounts. Ps4 had no price drop in walmart and target any better than normal year bundles (slightly better with gta5 and tlou), and their market percentage matched our 31% data.

So, MCC + Unity and black flag @329$ can theoretically lift the xb1 above ps4 sales, if we take your analysis that 18% of xb1 were not for kids vs 17%. It's still extremely close.


Yes it is indeed close and ps4 may very well have the lead for adult sales if we were able to take into account all the stores in the US. The problem is the infoscout sample is very limited and so I don't think we can make a good prediction based on it.



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theprof00 on 18 December 2014
enrageorange said:
theprof00 said:

walmart and target were also the two stores offering the best deals on xb1. Our data has the x1 at 40%, which could mean that 13% of the market was affected by the walmart and target discounts. Ps4 had no price drop in walmart and target any better than normal year bundles (slightly better with gta5 and tlou), and their market percentage matched our 31% data.

So, MCC + Unity and black flag @329$ can theoretically lift the xb1 above ps4 sales, if we take your analysis that 18% of xb1 were not for kids vs 17%. It's still extremely close.


Yes it is indeed close and ps4 may very well have the lead for adult sales if we were able to take into account all the stores in the US. The problem is the infoscout sample is very limited and so I don't think we can make a good prediction based on it.

Why make predictions at all? Why even use vgchartz as a source? Or NPD? All are limited sampling and extrapolated.
Better to have fun and make predictions using the evidence we have at hand than to be inconclusive about everything.

ie; it might not be a sound prediction, but the factors do all point to the same thing. I'm not going to venture exactly what is going to sell what, but I expect ps4 to continue outselling x1 by 55-45% through the year (US only), and 60-40% worldwide @ the prices of 349 x1 and 399 ps4.

If Sony drops price even a little bit, say 359$, then it's pretty a done deal.



kitler53 on 18 December 2014

that OP looked like a lot of effort to read. i think i'll just wait for january npd and apply hindsight.



theprof00 on 18 December 2014
kitler53 said:
that OP looked like a lot of effort to read. i think i'll just wait for january npd and apply hindsight.

So many people say things like 'with x1 new price, things are going to change', so I made this thread showing how they will not. And then when I'm proven correct, I will appear smarter and more desirable to the females, and they will let me fertilize their egg pouches.



kitler53 on 18 December 2014
theprof00 said:
kitler53 said:
that OP looked like a lot of effort to read. i think i'll just wait for january npd and apply hindsight.

So many people say things like 'with x1 new price, things are going to change', so I made this thread showing how they will not. And then when I'm proven correct, I will appear smarter and more desirable to the females, and they will let me fertilize their egg pouches.

how do i get in on that last bit?  i already have a son but unfortunately he is legitimate.



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theprof00 on 18 December 2014
kitler53 said:
theprof00 said:
kitler53 said:
that OP looked like a lot of effort to read. i think i'll just wait for january npd and apply hindsight.

So many people say things like 'with x1 new price, things are going to change', so I made this thread showing how they will not. And then when I'm proven correct, I will appear smarter and more desirable to the females, and they will let me fertilize their egg pouches.

how do i get in on that last bit?  i already have a son but unfortunately he is legitimate.

Go to a bar and show off your majestic coat to the best female. If anyone gives you trouble, you kill them.



VanceIX on 18 December 2014

Well, seeing as that it is winning with the cutt, I think the analysis is off. That being said, we will see the real impact of it one way or another next year (assuming MS sticks with the cut).



                                                                                                               You're Gonna Carry That Weight.

Xbox One - PS4 - Wii U - PC

kinisking on 18 December 2014

Yet it's beating ps4 with a 350$ price.



Ltd predictions by the time 9th Gen comes out

Ps4:110million

Xbox one :75 million( was 65) 

Wii u: 20 milliion

Gamz on 18 December 2014
Captain_Tom said:
cpg716 said:
Two factors that might change this....

1.) With more children getting the Xbox One this holiday, they will talk about it with their friends more. This could build it more with the younger generation. PS4 seems to skew older as it is..

2.) The PS4 sold SOOO well in its first year.. that sales might slow down heavily going into next year.. The Xbox One will likely stay at $349.. that price point might continue to help boost sales now.. where people were waiting to buy before..


1) I mean the same goes for every PS4 purchase as well.  People talk at every age bracket.

2) I disagree.  The PS4 sold very well before any of its "Biggest Hitters" came out, and so you would think now that it is going to get all of its big game sales will increase instead of decrease.  We are far from the point of saturation.

In regards to 1 I think younger kids gear towards Xbox because of Mindcraft on the 360.   I know my kids ages 7 & 5 all they ever talk about is minecraft and Xbox.  They have no idea what Playstation is.   



binary solo on 18 December 2014
VanceIX said:
Well, seeing as that it is winning with the cutt, I think the analysis is off. That being said, we will see the real impact of it one way or another next year (assuming MS sticks with the cut).

You didn't read the Op did you? Or if you did you completely failed to understand its thesis. Not sure what's worse, failing to read or failing to understand.

@OP your logic is interesting, however it fails to account for one thing. There are roughly 100 million young'uns in the USA, roughly 40% want a game console, roughly 25% of those want a xb one and roughly 40% of them are not especially fussed about what console they get. That means roughly 26 million kids and teens who have birthdays evenly spread through the year. That means 200k birthdays per week spread over 5 years is 40K consoles per week as birthday presents, minus 10k for consoles bought for Xmas means 30k consoles. The price skew puts xbone at an ongoing weekly advantage which can mean xbone > PS4 most weeks.



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