Why x1 will not win US even at 329$ CROW THREAD

[theprof00]

enrageorange said:

theprof00 said:

walmart and target were also the two stores offering the best deals on xb1. Our data has the x1 at 40%, which could mean that 13% of the market was affected by the walmart and target discounts. Ps4 had no price drop in walmart and target any better than normal year bundles (slightly better with gta5 and tlou), and their market percentage matched our 31% data.

So, MCC + Unity and black flag @329$ can theoretically lift the xb1 above ps4 sales, if we take your analysis that 18% of xb1 were not for kids vs 17%. It's still extremely close.

Yes it is indeed close and ps4 may very well have the lead for adult sales if we were able to take into account all the stores in the US. The problem is the infoscout sample is very limited and so I don't think we can make a good prediction based on it.

Why make predictions at all? Why even use vgchartz as a source? Or NPD? All are limited sampling and extrapolated.
Better to have fun and make predictions using the evidence we have at hand than to be inconclusive about everything.

ie; it might not be a sound prediction, but the factors do all point to the same thing. I'm not going to venture exactly what is going to sell what, but I expect ps4 to continue outselling x1 by 55-45% through the year (US only), and 60-40% worldwide @ the prices of 349 x1 and 399 ps4.

If Sony drops price even a little bit, say 359$, then it's pretty a done deal.