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Forums - Sales Discussion - ioi HAS Preliminary Data for BF, I This is what it's Telling Him.

CosmicSex on 30 November 2014

Well, we know that ioi takes the data he has, and uses a formula (or a group of formula updated to reflect trends) to extrapolate worldwide sales. From this, he produces estimations that appear on the front page. Without a doubt, Black Friday and the week before Christmas are the most difficult to extrapolate, and the fact that there are so many different bundles makes it just that much more difficult. Worldwide right now, there are something like 20 different bundles I can name off the top of my head. The only remedy to this chaos is the fact that Japan is kind enough to provide 3 different market samples.



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Alby_da_Wolf on 30 November 2014
bananaking21 said:
Ka-pi96 said:
Slarvax said:
Tippi said:
Plot twist: Wii U won.

Real plot twist: Vita won.

Real real plot twist: Ouya won!


real real real plot twist: Ouya isnt real. its a troll the internet masters are trolling us with.

Uber-real plot twist: Ouya = PSV = Chuck Norris, so he won the universe with a roundhouse kick.



Stwike him, Centuwion. Stwike him vewy wuffly! (Pontius Pilate, "Life of Brian")
A fart without stink is like a sky without stars.
TGS, Third Grade Shooter: brand new genre invented by Kevin Butler exclusively for Natal WiiToo Kinect. PEW! PEW-PEW-PEW!   


DJEVOLVE on 30 November 2014
binary solo said:
DJEVOLVE said:

If they had over 10,000 Receipts showing one or the other winning, This is actually a pretty large poll and I wouldn't expect it to be over 5% error, maybe 10% from that poll. However I'm not sure what there actual sample size was, obvious the bigger the better.

It's no more accurate than an internet poll, and internet polls can be notoriously innacurate with way more than a 10% error. A 5% error is a not too bad error from a well designed poll, and this is not a well designed poll. Apparently last year they had 1500 console hardware receipts, from something like 120K receipts over all, and that would have included handhelds. If they received 185K total receipts this time that's a ~50% increase in number of receipts, so the console hardware sample size might be 2200-2500. Also the samples are exclusively limited to Target and Walmart. So while they may be a reasonable approximation of console sales for those two retailers it would be wrong to extraoplate that to be a credible reflection of all retailers.  


Oh it's only to Wal-mart and Target, Well it can go anyway. Bestbuy plays a huge role.  I can say my bestbuy had 2 xbox ones and about 10 ps4's. However that's one in a sea of besbuys.

however I took my buddy to get a xbox one. So it was down to 1 when we left. You can't find sunset or the Advanced Warfare Bunduru anywhere. We looked.



jlmurph2 on 30 November 2014
DJEVOLVE said:
binary solo said:
DJEVOLVE said:

If they had over 10,000 Receipts showing one or the other winning, This is actually a pretty large poll and I wouldn't expect it to be over 5% error, maybe 10% from that poll. However I'm not sure what there actual sample size was, obvious the bigger the better.

It's no more accurate than an internet poll, and internet polls can be notoriously innacurate with way more than a 10% error. A 5% error is a not too bad error from a well designed poll, and this is not a well designed poll. Apparently last year they had 1500 console hardware receipts, from something like 120K receipts over all, and that would have included handhelds. If they received 185K total receipts this time that's a ~50% increase in number of receipts, so the console hardware sample size might be 2200-2500. Also the samples are exclusively limited to Target and Walmart. So while they may be a reasonable approximation of console sales for those two retailers it would be wrong to extraoplate that to be a credible reflection of all retailers.  


Oh it's only to Wal-mart and Target, Well it can go anyway. Bestbuy plays a huge role.  I can say my bestbuy had 2 xbox ones and about 10 ps4's. However that's one in a sea of besbuys.

however I took my buddy to get a xbox one. So it was down to 1 when we left. You can't find sunset or the Advanced Warfare Bunduru anywhere. We looked.

Actually, Best buy has close to 1/10th of the locations Walmart has.



DJEVOLVE on 30 November 2014
jlmurph2 said:
DJEVOLVE said:


Oh it's only to Wal-mart and Target, Well it can go anyway. Bestbuy plays a huge role.  I can say my bestbuy had 2 xbox ones and about 10 ps4's. However that's one in a sea of besbuys.

however I took my buddy to get a xbox one. So it was down to 1 when we left. You can't find sunset or the Advanced Warfare Bunduru anywhere. We looked.

Actually, Best buy has close to 1/10th of the locations Walmart has.

Yes you're right but Best Buy does attract a lot of the Electronic consumer, Also who knows what was sold at other outlets, I'm thinking xbox one took it but the accuracy of these numbers could go anyway, You never know they could be spot on and we will be looking for their reports in the future...



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sergiodaly on 30 November 2014
BHR-3 said:
lol at the title, yeah i got some preliminary data too

week ending 29th in NA

XB1 1.3M
PS4 1.1M
WiiU 270k

No. Even Wii didn't break a million in bf week in the best times it had. I'm 100% xbox one will not do better than Wii did.

Proudest Platinums - BF: Bad Company, Killzone 2 , Battlefield 3 and GTA4

Kerotan on 30 November 2014
fory77 said:
Ka-pi96 said:

Real real plot twist: Ouya won!

Hyper-realistic real plot twist: Atari 2600 won!!

industry ending plot twist. Nobody won. They all sold zero. 

CosmicSex said:
Well, we know that ioi takes the data he has, and uses a formula (or a group of formula updated to reflect trends) to extrapolate worldwide sales. From this, he produces estimations that appear on the front page. Without a doubt, Black Friday and the week before Christmas are the most difficult to extrapolate, and the fact that there are so many different bundles makes it just that much more difficult. Worldwide right now, there are something like 20 different bundles I can name off the top of my head. The only remedy to this chaos is the fact that Japan is kind enough to provide 3 different market samples.

 

formula? what does that even mean lol. I highly doubt that. I'd say he looks at all the trackers made public on the sites like gamestop bestbuy and amazon and makes educated guesses. And a bit of common sense thrown on top of it. Would xplain why the numbers are often off. Still better than no numbers. 



OfficerRaichu15 on 30 November 2014
Ka-pi96 said:
jlmurph2 said:
Ka-pi96 said:
EricFabian said:


yes. But don't worry, X1 and PS4 and X360 and 3DS >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Wii U

Odd that you think Wii U > PS3 but also X360 > Wii U

Is 360 > Wii U that hard to believe?

Nope, but that means 360>PS3 which seems odd to me.

I would like to say that lots of places online are slling out of wii us

and ebay sold 4k wii us in less than 17 minutes



Bets:

(Won)Bet with TechoHobbit: He(Techno) says 10 million by January 1,2014 I say 9 million by then. Winner gets 2 weeks of sig control.

(Lost)Bet with kinisking: I say Ps4 will win April NPD while he says Xbox One will win it; winner gets 1 week of avatar control.

Raichu's First Series:

First RPG?

First Fighter?

First Racer?

First Shooter?

First MMO?

First Horror?

Official Ni No Kuni Fanboy:

Familiars Captured:37

Game Beaten: 2 times almost

Times I got teary during some scenes: 3

POE on 30 November 2014
Kerotan said:
fory77 said:
Ka-pi96 said:

Real real plot twist: Ouya won!

Hyper-realistic real plot twist: Atari 2600 won!!

industry ending plot twist. Nobody won. They all sold zero. 

Real industry ending plot twist: Sonic ryse of the lyric won



Teeqoz on 01 December 2014
Ka-pi96 said:
jlmurph2 said:
Ka-pi96 said:
EricFabian said:


yes. But don't worry, X1 and PS4 and X360 and 3DS >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Wii U

Odd that you think Wii U > PS3 but also X360 > Wii U

Is 360 > Wii U that hard to believe?

Nope, but that means 360>PS3 which seems odd to me.


In the US....