All the previous Playstation consoles had a price reduction of one third of it's launch price before the end of it's 2nd full year.

This is the fastest selling console ever. The PS2 kept the same price for several years, and the PS4 will do the same.

Sony won't need the business from people unwilling to pay 399 until some time into 2016, the way I see it going.

My impression since the beginning was that they would cut the price around March 2015, 50$ at first, it will give a nice early in the year boost (around the release of Bloodborne + The Order and some other valentine's day crushers from third parties)..

Then 50$ every year to 18 months depending on sales data .. so sometime in 2016 we should have a PS4 at "normal" game console price, 300$... 200$ by the end of 2018 would make sense.

Obviously they could cut by 100$ chunks.. that would be much more impressive! (and it would stun MS and Nintendo to have to deal with a 300$ PS4)

EDIT: they probably have a bottom monthly sales number they want to reach before lowering the price, or any signs of decline from what they consider their realistic "baseline"... as soon as people loose interest, they'll lower the price to get people who were a little less interested in their console, so on and so forth, like MS did this year, they found the real 'market' value of the XB1, which is 300 - 350$ (depending on the value of the bundle)... obviously sane people think the PS4 is worth more than the XB1.

if the PS4 sales really are as crazy as VGC shows then Sony will take their sweet time with a price drop

they started with a very competitive pricing, so they will try to make up for that by keeping it for a longer time

@bold

PS2 reduced it's launch price by a third from $299 to $199 after 1 year 7 months in.