Would it?  I mean Xbox usually sells about %50 of it's years sells in Nov.-Dec, and they have sold about 3-3.5M this year, so actually it wouldn't be all that bad.

I think 12M shipped at years end is possible(maybe), but not verry likely, they just don't have the momentum that is needed in big territories like Europe and other places to do it.

yes it would.

3m shipped would result in only 6.9m shipped ltd. even some pessimists assume its more like 7.3m. maybe even more. so thats 0.4m more.
no we got the inventory clearance in the frist three quarter this year, that impact that number. and 50% would be the lowest to expect. as i posted 1 page back, ms is doing 50-65% in the holiday qarter (the worst was one time 46%)

so imho anything below 4m shipped xb1 alone would be  bad. not sure, if we get a breakdown from ms, like sony did this quarter, but 5.5 - 6.5m xbox family is my guess. 4 - 4.5m xb1