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Forums - Sales Discussion - Year End Shipment LTD Predictions

I would have disagreed with the Wii U's shipments had it not underperformed in what I was expecting the baseline to be (60k weekly). I really hope they decide to implement a price drop in November and help stimulate holiday sales sales.



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PS4: 19.5 million
XBO: 11 million
Wii U: 10 million

3DS: 54 Million
Vita: 9.9 million



Nirvana_Nut85 said:
I would have disagreed with the Wii U's shipments had it not underperformed in what I was expecting the baseline to be (60k weekly). I really hope they decide to implement a price drop in November and help stimulate holiday sales sales.

Don't Nintendo usually announce price cuts a few weeks in advance? I'm sure there will be black friday deals but then retailers already do those to no avail.




 

Nirvana_Nut85 said:
I would have disagreed with the Wii U's shipments had it not underperformed in what I was expecting the baseline to be (60k weekly). I really hope they decide to implement a price drop in November and help stimulate holiday sales sales.

Don't will happen this year.

I predict next price drop for half of 2015.



Seece said:
Nirvana_Nut85 said:
I would have disagreed with the Wii U's shipments had it not underperformed in what I was expecting the baseline to be (60k weekly). I really hope they decide to implement a price drop in November and help stimulate holiday sales.

Don't Nintendo usually announce price cuts a few weeks in advance? I'm sure there will be black friday deals but then retailers already do those to no avail.


Being that it's so close to the holiday season, they could possibly decide to do a week in advance announcement in order to not impact a few weeks of holiday sales. I'm mainly saying this out of hope, rather than reason but we can all dream, can't we? lol.



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drake_tolu said:
Nirvana_Nut85 said:
I would have disagreed with the Wii U's shipments had it not underperformed in what I was expecting the baseline to be (60k weekly). I really hope they decide to implement a price drop in November and help stimulate holiday sales sales.

Don't will happen this year.

I predict next price drop for half of 2015.


Your probably right. Although it would be a wise move in order to drive sales but at this point, Iwata is probably more concerned with trying to post a profit (even if it is a small one).



" Rebellion Against Tyrants Is Obedience To God"

Nirvana_Nut85 said:
Seece said:
Nirvana_Nut85 said:
I would have disagreed with the Wii U's shipments had it not underperformed in what I was expecting the baseline to be (60k weekly). I really hope they decide to implement a price drop in November and help stimulate holiday sales.

Don't Nintendo usually announce price cuts a few weeks in advance? I'm sure there will be black friday deals but then retailers already do those to no avail.


Being that it's so close to the holiday season, they could possibly decide to do a week in advance announcement in order to not impact a few weeks of holiday sales. I'm mainly saying this out of hope, rather than reason but we can all dream, can't we? lol.

I agree that it makes sense not to announce a price cut before it happens, but I just don't see Nintendo doing it. Their margins on 3DS atm are low (thanks to price cuts and 2DS) and WiiU is not making a profit, so not sure they want to lose $$$



 

Tag.



Seece said:
My predictions are

PS4: 7m~
XB1: 4.5m~
WiiU: 3m~

Vita: 1m~
3DS: 7M~

 


When comparing your Q4 shipments to sales YTD I get these ratios

PS4: .95:1

Wii U: .5:1

Xbox One 1.6:1

There seems to be this idea on VGC that rest of year and holiday is about 1:1

Why are you expecting the Wii U and PS4 to undership rest of year sold?

And why are you expecting the Xbox One to substancially outship rest of year sold?  From your experience, has Microsoft always had higher % spikes in holiday sales compare to the other platform holders?  I guess what I am asking is whether they all have different holiday trends?



CosmicSex said:
Seece said:
My predictions are

PS4: 7m~
XB1: 4.5m~
WiiU: 3m~

Vita: 1m~
3DS: 7M~

 


When comparing your Q4 shipments to sales YTD I get these ratios

PS4: .95:1

Wii U: .5:1

Xbox One 1.6:1

There seems to be this idea on VGC that rest of year and holiday is about 1:1

Why are you expecting the Wii U and PS4 to undership rest of year sold?

And why are you expecting the Xbox One to substancially outship rest of year sold?  From your experience, has Microsoft always had higher % spikes in holiday sales compare to the other platform holders?  I guess what I am asking is whether they all have different holiday trends?

PS4 wouldn't surprise me if it did higher, I just think its first holiday won't be as high as its potential is.

XB1 4.5m~ isn't that optimistic and isn't far off 1:1 shipments so far this year.

WiiU is overtracked and has barely shipped 1.5m~ this year, so 3m is 1:1.