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Forums - Sales Discussion - Year End Shipment LTD Predictions

4.5m Xbone in Q4

[insert speechless gif here]

My numbers continue holding strong since I posted them a year ago... I'm really confident (maybe not Wii U).



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ethomaz said:

4.5m Xbone in Q4

[insert speechless gif here]

My numbers continue holding strong since I posted them a year ago... I'm really confident (maybe not Wii U).

What is your (shipment) prediction for XB1 then?



 

Seece said:
ethomaz said:

4.5m Xbone in Q4

[insert speechless gif here]

My numbers continue holding strong since I posted them a year ago... I'm really confident (maybe not Wii U).

What is your (shipment) prediction for XB1 then?

I'm not checking the old thread but I guess...

9.8m

PS. I don't remember if it is shipped or sold btw but you have an idea... I'm really confident after the quarter results and last NPDs.



Seece said:

PS4 wouldn't surprise me if it did higher, I just think its first holiday won't be as high as its potential is.

XB1 4.5m~ isn't that optimistic and isn't far off 1:1 shipments so far this year.

WiiU is overtracked and has barely shipped 1.5m~ this year, so 3m is 1:1.

Okay thanks for your explaination.

I do, naturally have a few problems with the premise.

First, is it really possible to know if any predictions are right or wrong?  With Sony, we will only know the minimum shipped (when the inevitable sold through is released).  With Microsoft, we wont even know minimum X1 shipped if they are combined and they continue to hide sold through.  You don't actually know what they shipped for X1 this year.  None of us do.    With the Wii U,  3 million is actually 2:1 (3/2=1.5) unless I misunderstand.   Either way, you could be 100% right and NEVER find out lol. 

Either way, my prediction are lol:

PS4 7 million (seems to make sense to me)

Xbox One: 3 million (The last breakdown we got was from December 31st 2013:  "3.9 million Xbox One consoles and 3.5 million Xbox 360 consoles were sold in to retailers"  in q4 2013. So unless you think they can top their q4 2013 launch, 4.5 seems a little high)  Honestly, I don't know I just think 3 million is  a safer prediction. 

Wii U:  2 million (3 million is 2:1 the 1.5 million)

Any thoughts?



ethomaz said:
Seece said:
ethomaz said:

4.5m Xbone in Q4

[insert speechless gif here]

My numbers continue holding strong since I posted them a year ago... I'm really confident (maybe not Wii U).

What is your (shipment) prediction for XB1 then?

I'm not checking the old thread but I guess...

9.8m

PS. I don't remember if it is shipped or sold btw but you have an idea... I'm really confident after the quarter results and last NPDs.

So 2.3 to 2.6m shipped?

Poor stuff Ethomaz, you claim you're good at predictions but I swear I saw one recently that was way off the mark and it might have been XB1 related.



 

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CosmicSex said:
Seece said:

PS4 wouldn't surprise me if it did higher, I just think its first holiday won't be as high as its potential is.

XB1 4.5m~ isn't that optimistic and isn't far off 1:1 shipments so far this year.

WiiU is overtracked and has barely shipped 1.5m~ this year, so 3m is 1:1.

Okay thanks for your explaination.

I do, naturally have a few problems with the premise.

First, is it really possible to know if any predictions are right or wrong?  With Sony, we will only know the minimum shipped (when the inevitable sold through is released).  With Microsoft, we wont even know minimum X1 shipped if they are combined and they continue to hide sold through.  You don't actually know what they shipped for X1 this year.  None of us do.    With the Wii U,  3 million is actually 2:1 (3/2=1.5) unless I misunderstand.   Either way, you could be 100% right and NEVER find out lol. 

Either way, my prediction are lol:

PS4 7 million (seems to make sense to me)

Xbox One: 3 million (The last breakdown we got was from December 31st 2013:  "3.9 million Xbox One consoles and 3.5 million Xbox 360 consoles were sold in to retailers"  in q4 2013. So unless you think they can top their q4 2013 launch, 4.5 seems a little high)  Honestly, I don't know I just think 3 million is  a safer prediction. 

Wii U:  2 million (3 million is 2:1 the 1.5 million)

Any thoughts?

I do, so do Microsoft (Phil has gone on record and it's in their fiscal report they just released that they expect higher shipments of XB1 this holiday compared to the previous year. Now what sells is out of their hands, but this close to the Q (given we're in it) I think they have a pretty good idea bout what they're manufacturing and shipping over the next 7 weeks (most will be shipped 2 weeks before christmas week.



 

PS4: 20 million
Xbox One: 11 million
WiiU: 9.5 million

Vita: 9.9 million
3DS: 50 million



Won bet with t3mporary_126 - I correctly predicted that the Wii U's LTD at the end of 2014 would be closer to 9 million than 10 million. http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=6673287