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Forums - Gaming - Activision stock is Down 17% in less than a Month, mainly due to Destiny and weak outlook

Kerotan on 08 October 2014
walsufnir said:
I think the thing is that while Destiny sold very good, it dropped very fast and as we still don't have any details on user activity from Bungie we don't know how many are still playing it so this builds a forecast for future DLC and upcoming successors for this game.
Destiny sold exceptionally good but the image seems hurt a lot currently and for months to come.


Correct me if I'm wrong but how is selling 700k copies in it's 3rd week dropping badly? GTA 5 had an 80% drop after it's first week and the reason is because the first week was huge. Destiny first week was huge for a new IP. 

And if you include digital sales you could prob add on another 10%.  



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walsufnir on 08 October 2014
Kerotan said:
walsufnir said:
I think the thing is that while Destiny sold very good, it dropped very fast and as we still don't have any details on user activity from Bungie we don't know how many are still playing it so this builds a forecast for future DLC and upcoming successors for this game.
Destiny sold exceptionally good but the image seems hurt a lot currently and for months to come.


Correct me if I'm wrong but how is selling 700k copies in it's 3rd week dropping badly? GTA 5 had an 80% drop after it's first week and the reason is because the first week was huge. Destiny first week was huge for a new IP. 

And if you include digital sales you could prob add on another 10%.  


Oh, you are right! Sorry, I had different numbers in mind but that was when there was only US data available.

Still we are missing usage stats from Bungie and don't know how many people already stopped playing the game. Why don't they tell us officially how many people play the game?



Player2 on 08 October 2014

Plus they don't have a MMO to replace Word of Warcraft because Titan got canned recently after lots of money and work spent.



kappie1977 on 08 October 2014
walsufnir said:
Kerotan said:
walsufnir said:
I think the thing is that while Destiny sold very good, it dropped very fast and as we still don't have any details on user activity from Bungie we don't know how many are still playing it so this builds a forecast for future DLC and upcoming successors for this game.
Destiny sold exceptionally good but the image seems hurt a lot currently and for months to come.


Correct me if I'm wrong but how is selling 700k copies in it's 3rd week dropping badly? GTA 5 had an 80% drop after it's first week and the reason is because the first week was huge. Destiny first week was huge for a new IP. 

And if you include digital sales you could prob add on another 10%.  


Oh, you are right! Sorry, I had different numbers in mind but that was when there was only US data available.

Still we are missing usage stats from Bungie and don't know how many people already stopped playing the game. Why don't they tell us officially how many people play the game?

I'm also interested in the stats, but from looking at my friend list. Most of them are playing it daily. Too bad I can't play this week and next week, but can't wait to get back in the game.



walsufnir on 08 October 2014
kappie1977 said:
walsufnir said:
Kerotan said:
walsufnir said:
I think the thing is that while Destiny sold very good, it dropped very fast and as we still don't have any details on user activity from Bungie we don't know how many are still playing it so this builds a forecast for future DLC and upcoming successors for this game.
Destiny sold exceptionally good but the image seems hurt a lot currently and for months to come.


Correct me if I'm wrong but how is selling 700k copies in it's 3rd week dropping badly? GTA 5 had an 80% drop after it's first week and the reason is because the first week was huge. Destiny first week was huge for a new IP. 

And if you include digital sales you could prob add on another 10%.  


Oh, you are right! Sorry, I had different numbers in mind but that was when there was only US data available.

Still we are missing usage stats from Bungie and don't know how many people already stopped playing the game. Why don't they tell us officially how many people play the game?

I'm also interested in the stats, but from looking at my friend list. Most of them are playing it daily. Too bad I can't play this week and next week, but can't wait to get back in the game.


Oh, I don't doubt that there are many but considering total sales I would like to know how many already stopped playing it. I won't wonder if there is a certain core (around 200k) who will play this daily but can't think of more, to be honest.



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kappie1977 on 08 October 2014
kowenicki said:
kupomogli said:

So this guy is trying to spin Destiny as a failure by saying the sales have went down week over week? How many games sales haven't went down week over week? 0.01% of them?

If Activision lost money, it's not on Destiny.  They've already stated they've made more back than they put into it.


Can you link me to that.  I find it hard to believe given the nature of the deal with Bungie. 

OT

To be fair the stock is still up 24% in the last year.  Could just be profit taking from slightly nervous investors.

http://www.blackenterprise.com/lifestyle/bungies-destiny-earns-500m-in-first-day-in-stores/

http://www.cnet.com/news/destiny-hits-500-million-in-sales-marking-largest-ever-launch-of-a-new-game-franchise/

And from what I understood, the  $ 500M cost of the game is for 10 years(so for new games, DLC's etc) so in that terms it made them enough money for now.


I think your last point is the reason, that investors just reacted on some news and wanted to sell their stock!



kappie1977 on 08 October 2014
walsufnir said:
kappie1977 said:
walsufnir said:
Kerotan said:
walsufnir said:
I think the thing is that while Destiny sold very good, it dropped very fast and as we still don't have any details on user activity from Bungie we don't know how many are still playing it so this builds a forecast for future DLC and upcoming successors for this game.
Destiny sold exceptionally good but the image seems hurt a lot currently and for months to come.


Correct me if I'm wrong but how is selling 700k copies in it's 3rd week dropping badly? GTA 5 had an 80% drop after it's first week and the reason is because the first week was huge. Destiny first week was huge for a new IP. 

And if you include digital sales you could prob add on another 10%.  


Oh, you are right! Sorry, I had different numbers in mind but that was when there was only US data available.

Still we are missing usage stats from Bungie and don't know how many people already stopped playing the game. Why don't they tell us officially how many people play the game?

I'm also interested in the stats, but from looking at my friend list. Most of them are playing it daily. Too bad I can't play this week and next week, but can't wait to get back in the game.


Oh, I don't doubt that there are many but considering total sales I would like to know how many already stopped playing it. I won't wonder if there is a certain core (around 200k) who will play this daily but can't think of more, to be honest.

you are correct, a friendlist isn't really saying if worldwide much people play the  game. But with GTA 5 I noticed that after two weeks nobody in my friendlist played it anymore eventhough many fans of GTA so in my mind many people are still playing Destiny. But again my list isn't really saying anything about worldwide stats



jlmurph2 on 08 October 2014
kappie1977 said:

you are correct, a friendlist isn't really saying if worldwide much people play the  game. But with GTA 5 I noticed that after two weeks nobody in my friendlist played it anymore eventhough many fans of GTA so in my mind many people are still playing Destiny. But again my list isn't really saying anything about worldwide stats


Probably because most people finished the single-player and couldn't get into GTA Online servers yet.



Alby_da_Wolf on 08 October 2014

If any, stock market should reward Skrotick's company for being able to sell so many copies of a meh game , not punish it, the reasons must be others.



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hinch on 08 October 2014
Sharu said:
And Another one bites the dust.
Mark my words, in two years big third partys will fall down or go mobile (maybe with an exception of Rockstar). The fate of Crytek awaits!

With the revenue they make from WoW subscriptions (~6.8mil), I don't think so. Then you have the rest of their portfolio of games that are raking it in.