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Forums - Sony Discussion - Why are people predicting massive MGS4 numbers?

Moneybags said:

 

konami

 Yeah, my bad.  They're both like that so sometimes i get them confused.  They love to screw over their developers vision just to squeeze out a few more bucks.



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makingmusic476 said:
Bodhesatva said:

I definitely don't think it's crazy to suggest that MGS4 will beat MGS3. Halo 3 it isn't, but I think we coudl see something akin to DMC4/DMC3:

MGS4 is more heavily advertised, bundled with the system, and is one of fewer major games. MGS3 was less well advertised, was not bundled, and was one in a sea of major PS2 exclusives.

Therefore, I think it's possible that despite the lower user base, MGS4 may match or even surpass MGS3, and could hit 5 million sold.

Not saying that's a definite, by any means, just isn't outside the realm of possibility, either.


Also, MGS4 has the next-gen "WOW" factor, much like DMC4, that MGS3 and DMC3 (and GT4, and Tekken 5, etc.) did not.

MGS3, DMC3, GT4, Tekken 5, etc. all sold worse than their immediate predecessors, often despite being much better games (like Tekken 5 vs Tekken 4).   Updated graphics, as well as other new features, can really push people to get back into a series.

This is the reason why I haven't bought a Dynasty Warriors game since DW3, yet I'm planning on picking up DW6.  It has more than just negligible improvements over it's predecessors, and it's enough to warrant a purchase. 


Great post. I've been saying for a long time that an established series tends to sell better when it's the first release on a new console. As you point out, updated graphics is a large part of that. That's been a major disappointment for me with the Wii, where the new hype (see Mario Party 8) is mostly on the new controls that are rarely making gameplay better. But back to MGS4: it's obviously a very hyped game that will sell well. Halo didn't sell much better WW than MGS1 and 2, and no one doubted Halo 3 would sell (even though it was just passed by multiplatform CoD4). Oh well, it won't be long.



do you know how many people pre ordered this game?



outlawauron said:
@ HappySquirel

Ratchet was never bundled. Motorstorm and Resistance were bundled, but Resistance for 3 months in Europe and now the Motorstorm pack in US is being discontinued.

And Ratchet will likely outsell Deadlocked.

Ratchet and Clank may not have been in an official bundle, but there has been a lot of retailer based bundles of Ratchet and Clank; the most noteworthy one was a 40GB PS3, Spiderman the movie, Ratchet and Clank and a HDMI cable for $369 through Dell.ca (Yes, Game+HDMI cable+PS3 Bundle for $30 less than the PS3 bundle alone).

Dell wasn't the only retailer to have some sort of bundle with Ratchet and Clank, and I would assume that Ratchet and Clank has been so often choosen is because it is the only "Everyone" rated game of note for the PS3 that isn't a sports game; retailers tend to favour "Everyone" rated games in their bundles because they have the widest appeal, and they won't get into trouble if a parent buys the bundle for their child.

Ratchet and Clank may pass Deadlocked but (at 18,000 per week after only 18 weeks after release) it is unlikely that it will ever approach the other Ratchet and Clank games without being bundled by Sony.

 

Beyond all of this, I see a (potential) unfortunate problem for Metal Gear Solid 4 when it is released ... It is likely that it will be the only "Major" release for months on the PS3; Final Fantasy XIII, Gran Turismo 5 and Resistance 2 all have a high risk of being delayed into 2009, with many of the other "big" releases of 2008 (Little Big Planet, Killzone 2) having a high risk of not being that important. Certainly, this will help Metal Gear Solid 4 sell due to weaker competition, but at the same time will hurt its sales because of lower interest in the PS3.



HappySqurriel said:
outlawauron said:
@ HappySquirel

Ratchet was never bundled. Motorstorm and Resistance were bundled, but Resistance for 3 months in Europe and now the Motorstorm pack in US is being discontinued.

And Ratchet will likely outsell Deadlocked.

Ratchet and Clank may not have been in an official bundle, but there has been a lot of retailer based bundles of Ratchet and Clank; the most noteworthy one was a 40GB PS3, Spiderman the movie, Ratchet and Clank and a HDMI cable for $369 through Dell.ca (Yes, Game+HDMI cable+PS3 Bundle for $30 less than the PS3 bundle alone).

Dell wasn't the only retailer to have some sort of bundle with Ratchet and Clank, and I would assume that Ratchet and Clank has been so often choosen is because it is the only "Everyone" rated game of note for the PS3 that isn't a sports game; retailers tend to favour "Everyone" rated games in their bundles because they have the widest appeal, and they won't get into trouble if a parent buys the bundle for their child.

Ratchet and Clank may pass Deadlocked but (at 18,000 per week after only 18 weeks after release) it is unlikely that it will ever approach the other Ratchet and Clank games without being bundled by Sony.

 

Beyond all of this, I see a (potential) unfortunate problem for Metal Gear Solid 4 when it is released ... It is likely that it will be the only "Major" release for months on the PS3; Final Fantasy XIII, Gran Turismo 5 and Resistance 2 all have a high risk of being delayed into 2009, with many of the other "big" releases of 2008 (Little Big Planet, Killzone 2) having a high risk of not being that important. Certainly, this will help Metal Gear Solid 4 sell due to weaker competition, but at the same time will hurt its sales because of lower interest in the PS3.


 Why woud Resistance 2 get delayed?  Insomniac has consistently released a game every year in either October or Novemeber since 2002, starting with the original R&C, all without a single delay.



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Magnific0 said:
This game is gonna be huge. It includes Metal Gear Oline Starter too. In Japan they're going to sell a package that includes both games at a special price. And then there's the bundle with the 80GB PS3, also available in Japan, plus some other goodies.

 That got me thinking, why is there no MGS4 bundle fot the EU?  PAL is by far MGS's largest market.





@makingmusic

Idk why, but there is still time. I expect a MGS bundle to take the place of the GT Prologue bundle.

Id think theyd need to wait for a rating as well. If it's a 18+, then it probably wouldn't be a wise bundle. (Resistance got a 15, so I imagine it won't get higher.)



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Is going to do it better than MGS3 (sales and game) but is not going to be huge, mostly for two reasons:

1) Price, a lot of people played the last 2 or 3 games, but very few of them paid full retail price just for the game (A lot played a downloaded iso), thats why I think some of them are going to buy the game (MSG3 sales number) and some the bundle, but most of them are going to wait... Edit:(What I'ma saying is: If they don't paid for the  last game, are they going to bought a new PS3 just for the new game???)

2) Genre, is not a shooter, now is kinda a niche title (great, average or meh, your choice), but it doesn't appeal to the mass market...



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