60K

I'm going 20-25. Surely there is a bit of a fanbase there so I think it should some somewhere close to half the 360 launch. OTOH it is last out of the blocks, in a shrinking market, with a comparatively low historical market share. But I still reckon 20k is the minimum. Will be amazed if it is over 40K.

I'm going to go with 40K.

7500.

More than 1.

What I said on Xbox Empire thread:

"I expect 30k first week for Xbox One on Japan. Anything above that I'd consider good. Second week will be like 5k then it will average around 2k for a month or two then drop below that.

For life time, hopefully it will pass the original Xbox!"

Parts of this recipe :

Negatives :

(1)- Burned Japanese Xbox owners of OG and 360 = torched their most loyal fans and potential fans.
(2)- SEVERELY declining home console market.
(3)- High price.
(4)- Last to launch.
(5)- Snowball's chance in hell of compelling Japanese exclusives.
(6)- Bulky console.
(7)- External power brick.
(8)- Kinect is another cabled brick to deal with if they buy that model.
(9)- Non-Japanese company with historically terrible marketing in Japan.
(10)- Bad time of year to launch.

----

Positives :

(1)- There must be a small number of wealthy gamers in Japan who *must* own everything.
(2)- There may be a small number of sadomasochistic people?
(3)- Foreigners. There are a fair number of Westerners present.

..

25k?

WoW if thats true MS is giving up before even trying.

30k

Ah, you never fail to amuse me with your distilled dialogues.