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Forums - Sales Discussion - Prediction: PS3 will at least equal the lifetime sales of the Wii, in Europe

I was just pointing out that it is easy to prove a point using website. And there have been so many "reports" in the past of things like this that have prove to be wrong, or an enigma. So I am just keeping my guard up.



End of 2009 Predictions (Set, January 1st 2009)

Wii- 72 million   3rd Year Peak, better slate of releases

360- 37 million   Should trend down slightly after 3rd year peak

PS3- 29 million  Sales should pick up next year, 3rd year peak and price cut

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What is the event that kills Wii sales or boosts PS3 sales through the roof in early 2009?

Game lineups are, at worst similar. Home and Wiifit are currently duking it out to see who will be the bigger sleeper hit.

Nintendo is much closer to hitting the magic price where people will impulse buy it. The PS3 has shown it's willing to drop the price, but can it go further?

If things remain constant, the PS3 won't catch up until Nintendo's next system emerges. I'm not sure what big event will change this.



There is no such thing as a console war. This is the first step to game design.

tombi123 said:
@Stever89

My prediction isn't based on whether the Wii is or isn't sold out at the moment. It is just a general feeling.

This is why I'm glad I'm a robot. I don't get sidetracked by feelings.

Makes it a lot easier to be a complete loser too. 



Bursche said:
tombi123 said:
@Stever89

My prediction isn't based on whether the Wii is or isn't sold out at the moment. It is just a general feeling.

So then why are you arguing that the Wii is not sold out or supply constrained right now? Another feeling?


 Because it is the truth. My local Game, Gamestation, HMV, Virgin Megastore, all the websites I listed above have them in stock.



VGChartz Hardware data for the period 24th Mar 2007 to 23rd Feb 2008:


ConsoleWiiPS3
Total Others
5,638,980
4,278,638

 

From the time the PS3 has launched the Wii has outsold the PS3 by 1.4 Million units in "The Other" regions even though the Wii has been heavily supply limited through most of that time; on top of that, that timeframe includes a the launch weeks for the PS3 which gives it a boost of (roughly) 1 Million units. On top of this the PS3 rarely ever matches the sales for the Wii in "The Other" regions ( http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=PS3&reg1=Total+Other&cons2=PS3&reg2=Total+Other&cons3=Wii&reg3=Total+Other&start=38998&end=39502 ).

Even though this is the best region for the PS3, the system simply isn't popular enough to be able to match the sales of the Wii and is losing enough ground that it will soon be impossible to ever catch up.



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tombi123 said:
Bursche said:
tombi123 said:
@Stever89

My prediction isn't based on whether the Wii is or isn't sold out at the moment. It is just a general feeling.

So then why are you arguing that the Wii is not sold out or supply constrained right now? Another feeling?


 Because it is the truth. My local Game, Gamestation, HMV, Virgin Megastore, all the websites I listed above have them in stock.


So because your town and internet bundles have them in stock, then the entire nation has them? Small occurences do not mean they apply to the whole. That is one of the basic principles of false arguments.



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@Chadius

When the PS3 has a price drop and hits a mass market price range. The Wii is pretty much already there. PS2's where flying off the shelves at £199, the Wii is £20 cheaper and comes with a game.



Bursche said:
...

So because your town and internet bundles have them in stock, then the entire nation has them? Small occurences do not mean they apply to the whole. That is one of the basic principles of false arguments.


You're wrong. Small occurances can accurately show trends... The 360 is actually beating everyone in NA, it's obviously being tracked wrong. You know how I know this: Look at this graph. The 360 is beating everyone! Oh yeah!



Bursche said:
tombi123 said:
Bursche said:
tombi123 said:
@Stever89

My prediction isn't based on whether the Wii is or isn't sold out at the moment. It is just a general feeling.

So then why are you arguing that the Wii is not sold out or supply constrained right now? Another feeling?


 Because it is the truth. My local Game, Gamestation, HMV, Virgin Megastore, all the websites I listed above have them in stock.


So because your town and internet bundles have them in stock, then the entire nation has them? Small occurences do not mean they apply to the whole. That is one of the basic principles of false arguments.


  Brighton is a major city in England and they were in stock there, it is fair to say that all other cities are in the same situation and have Wii's in stock. I know its hard to believe coming from USA, but the Wii just isn't in such high demand in Europe as it is in NA.



tombi123 said:
@Chadius

When the PS3 has a price drop and hits a mass market price range. The Wii is pretty much already there. PS2's where flying off the shelves at £199, the Wii is £20 cheaper and comes with a game.

Let's not even start bringing up price drops and game releases. The PS3 has already had one price drop in Others, still can't reach the Wii's sales. By the time the PS3 reaches that "mass market" level, the Wii will be so far ahead (just like the PS2 was) that most games will be going to the Wii anyway, which means the Wii will just keep selling and selling. And the Wii could just drop the price to compete if it really has too. That's why it's so important to get the console out there and have it sell well the first year or two. It's why consoles have been sold at a loss. The theory being that if you sell it for less than it costs, more people will buy it, and then it'll get support. More games, means more sales. More sales means more royalities, which means more money. Sony and Microsoft thought went too far by making the prices too high at the start, which stagnented the sales. While the Wii was at the right level.