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Forums - Sales - When will PS4 reach 10 million sold? - ioi comments on undertracking

Some points to consider about this whole over-reaction.

1) Sony doesn't know for sure what sold through numbers are. They rely on a collection of estimates from other firms.

2) VGChartz and Sony numbers are less than 10% apart. The difference between them may well be statistically insignificant depending on possible error.

3) We don't know what Sony was including in their statement. Consoles given away as part of bundles? Replacement consoles?

4) This wasn't a statement to shareholders where they are legally obliged to be truthful. It was announced during a marketing event to make their product look successful and encourage new buyers. All companies bend the truth to sell their product especially when there's no way to ever prove that they are doing so. Over 10 million sounds a lot better than under 10 million.

 

I know we'd all like sales numbers to be a definite figure that we can agree on. Sadly, this will never be the case. VGChartz does a fairly good job of estimating sales and I think the PS4 announcement reflected that well. A few percent either way is a fantastic result, and when the estimates are made and maintained on record free of charge I think we should be pretty grateful.



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Purple said:

Some points to consider about this whole over-reaction.

1) Sony doesn't know for sure what sold through numbers are. They rely on a collection of estimates from other firms.

2) VGChartz and Sony numbers are less than 10% apart. The difference between them may well be statistically insignificant depending on possible error.

3) We don't know what Sony was including in their statement. Consoles given away as part of bundles? Replacement consoles?

4) This wasn't a statement to shareholders where they are legally obliged to be truthful. It was announced during a marketing event to make their product look successful and encourage new buyers. All companies bend the truth to sell their product especially when there's no way to ever prove that they are doing so. Over 10 million sounds a lot better than under 10 million.

 

I know we'd all like sales numbers to be a definite figure that we can agree on. Sadly, this will never be the case. VGChartz does a fairly good job of estimating sales and I think the PS4 announcement reflected that well. A few percent either way is a fantastic result, and when the estimates are made and maintained on record free of charge I think we should be pretty grateful.

I was going to address all of your points but I figure someone else will.

I just want to say this, on what basis are bringing Sony's statement in to doubt? Is it VGC numbers? It couldn't possibly be VGC numbers?

Cause regardless of whether or not they are legally obligated to tell the truth or not, blatantly lying on stage would tank all of the positive PR that Sony has accumulated over the year.

So no, the only issue here is that ioi doesn't have the data, any ridiculous doubting of Sony based on this, is overreaction.



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Dr.Henry_Killinger said:

I was going to address all of your points but I figure someone else will.

I just want to say this, on what basis are bringing Sony's statement in to doubt? Is it VGC numbers? It couldn't possibly be VGC numbers?

As I wrote in the previous post... Sony themselves have no way of possibly knowing sold through figures. They have estimates. Naturally when you release a PR designed to make your product look successful, you'd err towards higher estimates that have been derived. I don't think Sony are 'lying.' But in marketing you have to bend the truth to make your product look as attractive as possible.

Ultimately I don't care if it is over 10 million or not. I just wanted to highlight the numbers aren't that different and VGChartz is doing a pretty good job of being within a statistically insignificant difference from the actual sold through numbers.



overman1 said:
BHR-3 said:

well to Sony a retailer is technaclly a consumer for them or it could of just been misinformation like we had with the TR exclusive deal

 

i beleive the only way sony could claim they sold 10M is if at that time they shipped close to 11M and assumed that 10M has sold to consumers

I am pretty sure. Sony can get Sales records from the retailers. that way Sony can keep track of sales and how much to ship and the public demand of their product. Stupid to keep shipping stuff if you are not sure if it is even selling well. They may need to pay for this ind of information but it is very important.

This is my favorite comment. I wonder why they pay hundreds of thousands to tracking agencies if they don't need them.



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overman1 said:

This is what I dont understand.

It is not just with your console tracking but with your software tracking too. SOny announced over 30 million software sales while you guys still have it at about 26 million+. The last of us (PS3) has sold over 7million+ worldwide by the end of 2013. but you guys still have it as 4 million+ in 2014. I dont know how you do you trackings but it is definitely lacking in some major aspect especially when it is about the PS brand. Germany offically reported over $50k PS4 consoles more than you guys but you still havent changed it. 

This is also a hilarious post because the answer is so obvious.

VGC has no way of tracking digital sales.



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Then follow young Mat whenever he calls,
To dance with Jak o' the Shadows."

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FIT_Gamer said:

Sony announced over 10 million sold to consumers as of August 10. 


lol at risk of ban this made me laugh... I have no idea what console preferences you have, but thinking that Sony could have possibly sold 6k units in 1 day seems like fanboy logic... there is no way 6k sold in one day :P

not saying fit is a sony fanboy, or that he is saying that is what happened, but rather that is what I thought about the possibility of selling 6k in 1 day and what it would take to believe such a thing



Talal said:
I will permaban myself if the game releases in 2014.

in reference to KH3 release date

Purple said:
Dr.Henry_Killinger said:

I was going to address all of your points but I figure someone else will.

I just want to say this, on what basis are bringing Sony's statement in to doubt? Is it VGC numbers? It couldn't possibly be VGC numbers?

As I wrote in the previous post... Sony themselves have no way of possibly knowing sold through figures. They have estimates. Naturally when you release a PR designed to make your product look successful, you'd err towards higher estimates that have been derived. I don't think Sony are 'lying.' But in marketing you have to bend the truth to make your product look as attractive as possible.

Ultimately I don't care if it is over 10 million or not. I just wanted to highlight the numbers aren't that different and VGChartz is doing a pretty good job of being within a statistically insignificant difference from the actual sold through numbers.

Actually they do know. They have cultivated relationships with every retailer that sells their consoles and games. Just as MS and Nintendo has. The retailers, not some third party tracker, but the retailers themselves report directly to sony the number os consoles they sold through to customer.



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Rab said:

True a lot do lie, and Sony lies, they have a history of lying when it suits, I know they have misslead with sales in the past, I am frankly surprised people are trying to defend them in this area

I wont do all the work for you guys, look for yoursleves, or just remember (I know people do) if you were around back in the early PS3 era

One article talks about Sony realigning their goals (in both resolution and sales) when said goals were later determined to be unattainable. It's a case of Sony overestimating what they can do and later correcting it goals (but not admitting to failing). 

The second is about how Sony did announced 1080p for KZ but did not announce the downgrade for the multiplayer. Technically, they did not lie.

Both articles used strong wordings, indicating thay they have more of an axe to grind than they do at being credible news sources. So it's an insane leap of logic to go from the articles you've posted to implying that Sony would outright lie during a freakin press conference about something as quantifiable as sales. I mean, come on man! What the heck...!?

And if you would please cite the instance where they mislead about the whole consumers/retailers sold thru thing, it would be nice if you point it out rather than going "I seem to remember...!". Not that it's at all relevant as Sony specifically clarrified that it is sold thru to consumers in homes. So I don't know what you're getting at here.



outlawauron said:
overman1 said:
BHR-3 said:

well to Sony a retailer is technaclly a consumer for them or it could of just been misinformation like we had with the TR exclusive deal

 

i beleive the only way sony could claim they sold 10M is if at that time they shipped close to 11M and assumed that 10M has sold to consumers

I am pretty sure. Sony can get Sales records from the retailers. that way Sony can keep track of sales and how much to ship and the public demand of their product. Stupid to keep shipping stuff if you are not sure if it is even selling well. They may need to pay for this ind of information but it is very important.

This is my favorite comment. I wonder why they pay hundreds of thousands to tracking agencies if they don't need them.

I could not count the number of people I see on gaming forums who think it's the manufacturers that dictate how much retailers purchase of a given product.



ioi said:

On the subject of Sony's 10m announcement and adjustments and in an attempt to be fully transparent - until we can figure out where the "missing" 600k units have been sold then we obviously can't adjust the figures since they certainly aren't in the USA, Canada, Mexico and South America, UK, France, Germany, Spain, Italy, Benelux, Scandinavia, Eastern Europe, Russia, Australia, New Zealand or Japan in which our data is very accurate and lines up well with other data providers. Our estimates for the other regions (Middle East, Africa, Asia) are rough estimates based on trends seen with PS2 / PS3.

Our data for the regions we track as listed above for PS4 adds up to around 9.0m which should be accurate to +/- 100k. We estimate a further 140k in the Middle East and Africa and 290k in the remainder of Asia taking us to the 9.4m you can see on the homepage.

If Sony's numbers are to be believed as being accurate sell-through then clearly they have sold an enormously disproportional amount in one of those regions and once we know which one we can make the necessary adjustments. We can't just add 600k units to the total - we need to know which regions to adjust so we can ensure that we are on track moving forwards. This is why adjustments don't always happen straight away or sometimes not at all - we can't just randomly add sales here and there to make things add up!

The same goes for complaints about PS3 and 360 sales - until we can get hard data for regions such as the Middle East, Africa, Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong, India, China and so on then the best we can do is extrapolate based on general market trends and make best estimates for specific platform sales in those regions. If you wish to help and know of any reports or research in those regions then let me know and we can compare to our estimates and make adjustments as necessary.

I understand from a logical stand point you can't just update the numbers because Sony says so as that would only lead to more erroneous tracking. You must find out where the discrepency is and fix it there so your numbers will be accurate going forward. However, your numbers have not been within a reasonable margin of error so far. Believing the error is on Sony's part rather than your own is rediculous, and sets you up for further failure in tracking as well as finding the problem.



Talal said:
I will permaban myself if the game releases in 2014.

in reference to KH3 release date