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Forums - Sales - Is it possible for PS4 to cross 17 million mark by 2014

Sharu on 05 August 2014

15 mln maximum in the end of 2014



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prinz_valium on 05 August 2014

okay i just did the math for 360:

mom% increase october to november and november to december

2006: 147,66% / 141,62%
2007: 34,28% / 109,96
2008: 119,44% / 90,16%
2009: 157,74% / 64,11%
2010: 195,69% / 82,33%
2011: 212,85% / 48,73%


average: 144,62% / 89,45%



~145% october to november increase for x360
~90% november to december

but sure... 100% and 100% for ps4 is just extremely lowballing

650k ps4 october

1300k ps4 november

2600k ps4 december

 

=4.500 sales

if we expect 10 million for destiny launch and add even 200 - 300k for the rest of september, were still below 15m end of 2014.

 

 



MoHasanie on 05 August 2014

I don't think so. 15m is achievable though.



    

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NobleTeam360 on 05 August 2014

Total sales? I think it can, but it might be miss-able. 16 million for sure though.



CommonNinja on 05 August 2014

Yeah, it is definatly possible if they make the right moves this holiday.

The question is will they make thoese moves?

I think if they make a compelling bundle (PS4 + Game) for $400, then they could clean house.

It also depencs on how agressive MS gets with the Xbox as they have to potential to steal some of the wind in Sony's sails if Sony is not carefull.

 

Though I'm not sure if MS is willing to do that...at least, I'm not sure if they are willing to agressivly drop the price, and offer good bundles to undercut Sony, and if they don't, PS4 could easily sell 17M by the end of 2014.



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prinz_valium on 05 August 2014
DerNebel said:

Yeah wow, Japan's going to make the difference here... in Nov+Dec 2008 the PS3 only sold about 300k units in Japan, even if we assume that the PS4 will only sell about 100k in those months in Japan this year, then that's a difference that will probably easy be made up by the black friday difference in the US alone.

The better appeal in the US is massively more important in the holidays then it is in the rest of the year. To give an example, let's look at 2008 again, this is what the PS3 and 360 had sold in 2008 at the end of October:

PS3: 6.8m

360: 5.9m

and where did both systems end up for 2008?

PS3: 10.2m

360: 10.8m

What happened? Mainly the holidays in the US, the 360 was so much more popular in the US that it managed to still overtake the PS3 for the year thanks to the holidays.

But sure sweetheart let's bet.

What you wanna bet? 1 month of sig control?

sure.

any look at my mom % figures for the 360 ;)

 

ps4 needs to do better than 360 to achive 15m



DerNebel on 05 August 2014
prinz_valium said:
DerNebel said:

Yeah wow, Japan's going to make the difference here... in Nov+Dec 2008 the PS3 only sold about 300k units in Japan, even if we assume that the PS4 will only sell about 100k in those months in Japan this year, then that's a difference that will probably easy be made up by the black friday difference in the US alone.

The better appeal in the US is massively more important in the holidays then it is in the rest of the year. To give an example, let's look at 2008 again, this is what the PS3 and 360 had sold in 2008 at the end of October:

PS3: 6.8m

360: 5.9m

and where did both systems end up for 2008?

PS3: 10.2m

360: 10.8m

What happened? Mainly the holidays in the US, the 360 was so much more popular in the US that it managed to still overtake the PS3 for the year thanks to the holidays.

But sure sweetheart let's bet.

What you wanna bet? 1 month of sig control?

sure.

any look at my mom % figures for the 360 ;)

 

ps4 needs to do better than 360 to achive 15m

Shouldn't be a problem.

15m+ => I win

<15m => You win

We wait for either and official announcement or the adjustements after we get December NPD numbers, sound good?



prinz_valium on 05 August 2014
DerNebel said:
prinz_valium said:
DerNebel said:

Yeah wow, Japan's going to make the difference here... in Nov+Dec 2008 the PS3 only sold about 300k units in Japan, even if we assume that the PS4 will only sell about 100k in those months in Japan this year, then that's a difference that will probably easy be made up by the black friday difference in the US alone.

The better appeal in the US is massively more important in the holidays then it is in the rest of the year. To give an example, let's look at 2008 again, this is what the PS3 and 360 had sold in 2008 at the end of October:

PS3: 6.8m

360: 5.9m

and where did both systems end up for 2008?

PS3: 10.2m

360: 10.8m

What happened? Mainly the holidays in the US, the 360 was so much more popular in the US that it managed to still overtake the PS3 for the year thanks to the holidays.

But sure sweetheart let's bet.

What you wanna bet? 1 month of sig control?

sure.

any look at my mom % figures for the 360 ;)

 

ps4 needs to do better than 360 to achive 15m

Shouldn't be a problem.

15m+ => I win

<15m => You win

We wait for either and official announcement or the adjustements after we get December NPD numbers, sound good?


okay

and here are my ps3 numbers:

 

2007-2013!

october to november:

80,71%
73,28%
82,01%
87,47%
91,34%
100,67%
87,56%

average: 86,15

 

november to december:

143,46%
105,14%
102,18%
102,94%
82,56%
50,80%
48,37%

average: 90,78%

 

 

guy i will be nearly spot on with my 100% for november and 100% for december :)

and note the bigger the black friday bump will be, it will be harder to mange 100% for december. perfectly shown at the 360 numbers

 

so maybe 120% october to november and 90% november to december



DerNebel on 05 August 2014
prinz_valium said:


okay

and here are my ps3 numbers:

 

2007-2013!

october to november:

80,71%
73,28%
82,01%
87,47%
91,34%
100,67%
87,56%

average: 86,15

 

november to december:

143,46%
105,14%
102,18%
102,94%
82,56%
50,80%
48,37%

average: 90,78%

 

 

guy i will be nearly spot on with my 100% for november and 100% for december :)

and note the bigger the black friday bump will be, it will be harder to mange 100% for december. perfectly shown at the 360 numbers

 

so maybe 120% october to november and 90% november to december

We'll see, the bet stands anyway.



alabtrosMyster on 05 August 2014

Before the PS4's launch there were rumors that the balllpark for the first year was around 16 millions (I don't think they will reach 16 millions by Nov 15th) .

I think Japan not picking up home consoles so far this cycle hurts those projections, even if they sold only 20k consoles on average (which is way more than what they do now) this would net about a million consoles a year just for Japan... I wonder if they have some big japanese titles that can turn the tide waiting to be announced, or if they will push the Vita in that territory.

I think 15 million is reasonably high for the end of the year 2014, but then if they want to sellmore PS4 than PS2 they will need to sell 15+ million a year for 10 years! ... next year has to be big, between 25 - 30 million consoles need to be sold, otherwise, it will not meed expectations (at least not the expectation of selling more or as much as the PS2)... heck at 15 million consoles sold a year in 5 years it will not even have sold 80 million machines.

Hopefully I under estimate the holiday bump.