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Forums - Nintendo - Wii U Shipped Predictions

AnthonyW86 on 23 July 2014

I think 6.8 shipped, meaning it's tracking almost 3 million behind Gamecube.



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TechnoHobbit on 23 July 2014
phaedruss said:
TechnoHobbit said:
Shipped? Well according to VGChartz (which is nearly spot on in the US, Japan, and France right now, which usually means it's spot on for the rest of the world as well) 6,587,078 Wii U's where sold to consumers by July 5th. Shipped to retail numbers for he Wii U are usually around 300,000 ahead of the sold to consumer numbers not counting the holiday season or close to the launch of the Wii U.

So going by that I'll predict that Wii U shipped numbers are 6.86 million as of 6/30/2014.


You don't think that ~700k consoles sold between march 31st and June 30th is highly unlikely given that 250k were sold in the U.S. according to NPD and maybe 100k in Japan in that time period?

Not really, 250K in the US and 130K in Japan only leaves 320K unfilled. I believe VGChartz is close on Europe so around 200-230K are from there and then the "Other" regions can easily make an extra 70K.

VGChartz likely is off by a good 70-100K total, but I already took that into account with my shipped numbers.



Bets:

1. If the Wii U sells closer to 10 million LTD by 1/3/2015 I win. If it sells closer to 9.5 million LTD by 1/3/2015 OfficerRaichu15 wins (winner gets 2 weeks of avatar control)--Lost.

benji232 on 23 July 2014
phaedruss said:
benji232 said:
phaedruss said:
WhiteEaglePL said:
6.6 is lower than vgz 6.7.

I predict 7.0, with 6.8-.9 sold.


VGC is way overtracked in my opinion. The Wii U hadn't even sold 6 million most likely by March 31.

So we know vgchartz is spot on for US and Japan numbers (since we have NPD, Mediacreate and Famitsu). So how can Europe make wiiU numbers way off? Even if wiiU was selling 0 units per week overthere, it would still be only overtracked by merely 20k every week. Please explain yourself.


About 350k for the time period going by NPD and mediacreate, that leaves almost 400k unaccounted for, it didn't sell 400k in Europe in that time period. Not to mention that 6.7 million is now not the end of june, which was 6.5 according to VGC, which I think is off by 100k at least.

There is the rest of America, Europe, and other places in the world like Australia? ........ NPD doesn't track sales in Canada or Brasil or other places in America. They only track US data.



Predictions for LT console sales:

PS4: 120M

XB1: 70M

WiiU: 14M

3DS: 60M

Vita: 13M

phaedruss on 23 July 2014
benji232 said:

There is the rest of America, Europe, and other places in the world like Australia? ........ NPD doesn't track sales in Canada or Brasil or other places in America. They only track US data.


Yea, so not likely.



phaedruss on 23 July 2014
TechnoHobbit said:

Not really, 250K in the US and 130K in Japan only leaves 320K unfilled. I believe VGChartz is close on Europe so around 200-230K are from there and then the "Other" regions can easily make an extra 70K.

VGChartz likely is off by a good 70-100K total, but I already took that into account with my shipped numbers.


It's at most 120k in Japan but more like 100k. It only sold 10k a week there for a few weeks and is going back down to 8k and I believe it was probably 6k earlier in the quarter until MK8.



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Lucas-Rio on 23 July 2014

Nintendo did 310 last quarter and MK8 boosted the console and it was expected. Nintendo shipped the double probably.



Miyamotoo on 23 July 2014
phaedruss said:
TechnoHobbit said:
 

Not really, 250K in the US and 130K in Japan only leaves 320K unfilled. I believe VGChartz is close on Europe so around 200-230K are from there and then the "Other" regions can easily make an extra 70K.

VGChartz likely is off by a good 70-100K total, but I already took that into account with my shipped numbers.


It's at most 120k in Japan but more like 100k. It only sold 10k a week there for a few weeks and is going back down to 8k and I believe it was probably 6k earlier in the quarter until MK8.

Acording VGChartz numbers, and for Japan they have indenitical Media Create sales Numbers, Wii U was sold about 120k in april-jun period.



Nintentacle on 23 July 2014

I'm guessing around 6.8 million.



benji232 on 23 July 2014
phaedruss said:
benji232 said:
 

There is the rest of America, Europe, and other places in the world like Australia? ........ NPD doesn't track sales in Canada or Brasil or other places in America. They only track US data.


Yea, so not likely.

Ok so you're predicting 430k shipments? We'll see in merely 8 days. I was thinking something around 600-700k shipped.



Predictions for LT console sales:

PS4: 120M

XB1: 70M

WiiU: 14M

3DS: 60M

Vita: 13M

phaedruss on 23 July 2014
benji232 said:
phaedruss said:
benji232 said:
 

There is the rest of America, Europe, and other places in the world like Australia? ........ NPD doesn't track sales in Canada or Brasil or other places in America. They only track US data.


Yea, so not likely.

Ok so you're predicting 430k shipments? We'll see in merely 8 days. I was thinking something around 600-700k shipped.

About yea I suppose, maybe a little more. I didn't want to give a range as I thought that would be a copout so I said the low end of 6.6, but I was kind of thinking more 6.6-6.7.