At the same time frame as PS3, PS4 will definitely sell more, way more, and certainly more than PS1. See my tag for a more detailed sales estimates from last year (everything has come true so far, perfectly on track).

To return to an argument that was made against the PS3 last gen but can equally work in support of a longer gen/PS4 lifetime this time round; the hardware does not decide the lifetime of a console, the market does.

The reason PS3 sold this well for this long isn't because of the amazingly powerful hardware, but because of the software support (even after the PS4's release). In the last few years PS3 has seen quality software releases enticing more people to try it out, but that wasn't because of the hardware, but because Sony has developers willing to optimise their engines for PS3. Even then, they were only incremental improvements on visuals (The Last of Us was only an incremental improvement on Uncharted 2) and the mass market tend not to care about incremental improvements.

Anyone that does care will have at least a midling PC whose visuals would far outstrip anything the PS3 could output.

Go back another generation and you'll see the PS2, which had the worst hardware of that gen but continued to sell because developers continued to support it and consumers kept buying software.

Well, this is a very concise summary of my exact thoughts.

This generation will be as long as the last of one if not any longer BECAUSE

- Game budgets skyrocketed. Developers need more staff and longer duration to develop the game and more install base and time to cover up the costs.

- The graphics have reached an insane level. Most people assume that more realistic graphics automatically come with more power, which is simply wrong. More power gives you more POTENTIAL for more realism but it also takes a lot more resources to implement it.

- The computer industry is not what it used to be, not improving as fast. The jump from PS1 to PS2 was larger over 5 years than PS2 to PS3, which was larger than the jump from PS3 to PS4 over 7-8 years. We need at least a decade for a similar jump due to massively dimishing returns to scale. Remember how well the last gen versions of games stack up to their current gen versions (although they will improve).

- Speaking of improvement, there will be at least 3 waves of current gen games, each coming in 2-3 years, and with significant improvements.

- The current gen is often mentioned with disappointment, using the technical specs as underwhelming etc... Yes, compared to PC, maybe, but that's not the point. Consoles have their own constraints, the TV size, max resolution, comparative performance with last gen etc, all of which have massively improved. Just because it is based directly on the PC architecture makes it much easier to compare but the real issue with current gen is the massive effort & budget required to take full advantage of the consoles and create strikingly better visuals. It will take time.

Those who claim playstation will not sell past 100 million is just either wishful thinking or blindsided. Last generation, we had a 260 million user base over 7 years. Even if you assume an over 20% shrinkage to 200 million, it's pretty clear that PS4 will capture more than 50% of the market.

Even by the end of May 2014 (just 6 months after its release) and despite a year head start from WiiU, it alread holds 43% of the 8th gen market share and is destined to hold 55-70% by the end of this generation. So by this metric, even with a massive shrinkage of the market from 260 million to 200 million, PS4 will sell a MINIMUM OF 110 million (200 * 55%) and up to 140 million (200 * 70%). My own estimates give me a ball park of a 17% shrinkage in the market, which puts PS4 somewhere between 110 million to 145 million by the end of 2020.

Many people here seem to forget that Consoles, in the mid point of their lives,

- get price cuts,

- streamline their supplies,

- have a lot more games in the market,

- most of their services matures

- last generation dry out and their users switch to current gen

etc..

all of which massively improve their sales figures. PS4 has outsold almost all consoles in history, possibly except for the wii which was short-lived and way cheaper. For more info, please see my sales estimates.

We need to tag this thread for the future :)

It's pretty much on target for 100m, not sure why anyone would think otherwise, record breaking console and it's going to do amazing four months from September. Next year will be a massive year for the console... it's only going to go up from there.

As much as I want it to sell 100 Mil + I think it won't go over 85 million

This shorter generation that some of you keep saying. I am yet to see what or why any of you think thay way. just looking at the number of cross gen titles so far it makes me wonder what makes you guys think that this gen will last no more than 5yrs.

PS3 sell +150K only in 2011.

PS4 in 2017 will sell always +250K and in some week +400K.

PS4 will sell minimum 120 million (and this is minimum)

i ACTUALLY agree. I don't think anything will pass that milestone, maybe except the 3ds but we will see if it gets discontiued before it reaches it.

The PS3's rough start sold better than the PS4's awesome one, though. How is that hard to understand?

So the PS3 reached 8 million sold units faster than the PS4?

Or if you prefer aligned launches which consider the later PS3-launch in Europe and the later PS4-launch in Japan: