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Forums - Gaming - Why I don't think the PS4 will pass 100m

Sharu on 21 July 2014
biglittlesps said:
Sharu said:
For PS4 to sell 100 millions:
If a generation will be 5 years it needs to sell 20 million a year (in average). So if first year will be 15 millions, next year it should be 25 millions.
20 millions a year means selling 400 000 a week, globally, in average. Currently it sells 4 times less.
So basing on this I think that industry is shrinking and Sony will need a miracle to get PS4 to 100 millions lifetime sales.

Consoles sells most of the year sales during Holidays and big game releases which will be big numbers to balance the average sales of the year. So, you cant expect the PS4 to do 400k every week when it doesn't have any big exclusives released so far and this is Summer time where the sales are going to drop every year.

Do U know what average is? If the average for 4 weeks is 400k, and console sales 3 weeks 100k, it means that it needs to sell 1300k 4th week to reach the average.

Lets put it simple, specially for you. 

Do you think that it is realistic to expect PS4 sales of 20 millions for its first year (from middle of November 2013 till middle of November 2014)?

Edit: Even Sony don't think that 100Mln is realistic:
http://www.siliconera.com/2014/05/14/sony-hope-sell-17-million-playstation-4-playstation-3-consoles/
"During the fiscal year that ran from April 1st, 2013 – March 31st, 2014, Sony sold 14.6 million PlayStation home consoles. That figure includes both PlayStation 3 and PlayStation 4."
"For the ongoing fiscal year (April 1st, 2014 – March 31st, 2015), Sony estimate they will sell 17 million PlayStation home consoles"



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Rafux on 21 July 2014
Sharu said:
biglittlesps said:
Sharu said:
For PS4 to sell 100 millions:
If a generation will be 5 years it needs to sell 20 million a year (in average). So if first year will be 15 millions, next year it should be 25 millions.
20 millions a year means selling 400 000 a week, globally, in average. Currently it sells 4 times less.
So basing on this I think that industry is shrinking and Sony will need a miracle to get PS4 to 100 millions lifetime sales.

Consoles sells most of the year sales during Holidays and big game releases which will be big numbers to balance the average sales of the year. So, you cant expect the PS4 to do 400k every week when it doesn't have any big exclusives released so far and this is Summer time where the sales are going to drop every year.

Do U know what average is? If the average for 4 weeks is 400k, and console sales 3 weeks 100k, it means that it needs to sell 1300k 4th week to reach the average.

Lets put it simple, specially for you. 

Do you think that it is realistic to expect PS4 sales of 20 millions for its first year (from middle of November 2013 till middle of November 2014)?

Edit: Even Sony don't think that 100Mln is realistic:
http://www.siliconera.com/2014/05/14/sony-hope-sell-17-million-playstation-4-playstation-3-consoles/
"During the fiscal year that ran from April 1st, 2013 – March 31st, 2014, Sony sold 14.6 million PlayStation home consoles. That figure includes both PlayStation 3 and PlayStation 4."
"For the ongoing fiscal year (April 1st, 2014 – March 31st, 2015), Sony estimate they will sell 17 million PlayStation home consoles"

17 Million is about what PS2 sold in its first year with no competition.

So after 5 years PS4 will completely stop selling? like completely no sales? I hope you are joking about that one its been proven every gen that Playstation consoles have a long life.



KLXVER on 21 July 2014
Rafux said:

17 Million is about what PS2 sold in its first year with no competition.

So after 5 years PS4 will completely stop selling? like completely no sales? I hope you are joking about that one its been proven every gen that Playstation consoles have a long life.


The PS2 did have competition. It just smashed it...



Shootdatrupee on 21 July 2014

Agreed... I suppose. Sony said that PS4 will not have as long as a lifetime as PS3, let alone the PS2...



Lawlight on 21 July 2014
Sharu said:
For PS4 to sell 100 millions:
If a generation will be 5 years it needs to sell 20 million a year (in average). So if first year will be 15 millions, next year it should be 25 millions.
20 millions a year means selling 400 000 a week, globally, in average. Currently it sells 4 times less.
So basing on this I think that industry is shrinking and Sony will need a miracle to get PS4 to 100 millions lifetime sales.


That's not how it works. The PS4 will sell well after the generation is over.



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Rafux on 21 July 2014
KLXVER said:
Rafux said:

17 Million is about what PS2 sold in its first year with no competition.

So after 5 years PS4 will completely stop selling? like completely no sales? I hope you are joking about that one its been proven every gen that Playstation consoles have a long life.


The PS2 did have competition. It just smashed it...


I just remember Dreamcast which sorry to say was no competition.



Sharu on 21 July 2014
Lawlight said:
Sharu said:
For PS4 to sell 100 millions:
If a generation will be 5 years it needs to sell 20 million a year (in average). So if first year will be 15 millions, next year it should be 25 millions.
20 millions a year means selling 400 000 a week, globally, in average. Currently it sells 4 times less.
So basing on this I think that industry is shrinking and Sony will need a miracle to get PS4 to 100 millions lifetime sales.


That's not how it works. The PS4 will sell well after the generation is over.

Yes, yes, and PS3 will easily beat Wii lifetime, cause of Sony legs... Heard it before, not impressed. 

Guys you just need to understand that both PS2 and Wii was a phenomens. And applying its patterns to ordinary consoles just doesn't work.



KLXVER on 21 July 2014
Rafux said:
KLXVER said:
Rafux said:

17 Million is about what PS2 sold in its first year with no competition.

So after 5 years PS4 will completely stop selling? like completely no sales? I hope you are joking about that one its been proven every gen that Playstation consoles have a long life.


The PS2 did have competition. It just smashed it...


I just remember Dreamcast which sorry to say was no competition.


Well the Xbox and GC did try at least...

 

EDIT: You said the first year. My bad. I cant read...



Sharu on 21 July 2014
KLXVER said:
Rafux said:
KLXVER said:
Rafux said:

17 Million is about what PS2 sold in its first year with no competition.

So after 5 years PS4 will completely stop selling? like completely no sales? I hope you are joking about that one its been proven every gen that Playstation consoles have a long life.


The PS2 did have competition. It just smashed it...


I just remember Dreamcast which sorry to say was no competition.


Well the Xbox and GC did try at least...

Well, as I understand he mentioned 1st year of PS2. When its main competitors was PS1 and N64...



Wazowski on 21 July 2014

PS4 if it falls hard after 6 years:

2013: 4.2m
2014: 11m - 15m total
2015: 18m - 33m total
2016: 23m (peak) - 56m total
2017: 20m - 76m total
2018: 16m - 92m total
2019: 8m - 100m total
2020: 4m - 104m total

even if it falls hard after 6 year (unlikely) it has a great chance of doing 100m