At the current rate it will sell around 500k every month, or 6 million a year, plus 2 million every holiday, so, 8 million a year.
So, I guess it will get to 64 million or so in 8 years, when it will be dropped for good.

Of course, Sony can go into bankruptcy in 2 or 3 years, so, in that case, 20 or 30 million, and a lot of sad gamers.=/

I agree that currently PS4 is on a trajectory to 100 million.  However, I disagree with you regarding the lack of competition.

Lots can change in the next 4-5 years

The big wildcard would be another company joining the video game console market.  In about 3-4 years, another company can put out video game console at a good price point of $399 with much better specs and likely be able to play 1080p 60 fps with bells and whistles for all games (maybe powered by a maxwell GPU).  Maybe a company like Apple, Amazon decides to put out a console for the core video games with a GPU similar to current 770 or 780 for about $399 in year 2016.  Maybe another Ouya console but made for the hardcore gamers.  What if Samsung decides to make a Galaxy video game console.  Hell, Nintendo can put out another console with better GPU/CPU at the same price point in few years.  There are too many things unknown to make these type of predictions.....

bold: not true at all lol, did you even look at the ps3 release schedule back in 2007? it wasn't getting any more games than the ps4 and even worse it was getting the gimped versions ( the x360 version were running and looking better) unlike the ps4.The droughts are longer and more common? how? the ps4 is 8 months old. I'm starting to think you didn't even check the sales at comparative lifetime of each console before making this assumption. And it's not like cross-gen games will be offered all gen. Plus like you said developement times are longer and games are more expensive to make wich is why I think this gen will last just as long or even longer than the previous one because developers will try to maximise the amount of money they can get from their franchises. I mean the ps4 is doing everything better than the ps3 it's already 4million ahead for the same period, it's facing weaker competition, it's priced way better, it's the console to get if you want the better version of third party games yet somehow it won't reach 100million while the ps3 will do 90 million easy, what kind of logic is that? The only thing I could see stoping it from reaching that is if Sony just close the playstation platform due to lack of money.

Wow, someone following my train of thought. And I thought I was the only one lol

Pretty sure it will, because that magical $199 will happen faster than it did/will do with PS3.

So, the PS4 already sold 14% of its LTD sales?

And you are both wrong, PS4 is on its way to sell 14 million in its first year "with no gaemz", big releases are coming in 2105 and on, plus price cuts, VR tech (could work or could be shit who knows).

It seems like you want the PS4 to fail. It won't.

The biggest reason I don't expect PS4 to go past 100 million is it's software library.

With all titles less than AAA being given the digital treatment It's going to lose much awareness about it's library as well as the appearance of variety in said library.

larger 3rd party titles appeal is rather narrow. As in almost everything is targeted at the core gamer. Even NPD will tell you there are only 32 million of them. Combine the sales of PS4/X1 and and we have about half of them. Beyond them I just don't see whom 99% of these games are supposed to appeal to.

Tablets and phones are already good enough for mainstream consumers and offer more flexibility in use for the same and less price than PS4 even when it's finally at 299. Those platforms will have more exclusives too. Soon 3rd parties will abandon even home consoles to mobile because less costly risks with better possible payoffs.

So in short. More software will be needed than I believe Sony and 3rd parties can provide due to how long it takes to make new AAA games. They also need software for people whom aren't core gamers which Sony nor 3rd parties are motivated to provide. They also need mid sized titles at retail to appeal to more consumers. We know Sony isn't going to be making those and I doubt most 3rd parties want mid sized titles more so blockbusters so I don't know where that will come from.

Is the PS4 weakening..... yeah it is. Look at the numbers, less than 100k. Selling like a typical system that hit less than 100m.  Yeah I know you are going to tell me that "oh but it is summer" When that arguement is more a blind excuse arguement. Consoles that sell 100m in their lifetime, don't just drop below 100k a week within 7 or so months of it's lifetime even if it is the summer time. Over all really, it is that consoles in general are weakening. We are not going to see a console hit 100m this gen at all whether it be a handheld or home console. People are not buying them like they used to. This is probably due to the fact that there are so many other platforms out there now that all cam up during the last generation. Yeah we had a huge surge of people buy the PS4, same thing happened with the Xbox at it's launch only the PS4 held on to it's momentum a lot longer. Now ofcourse, it is possible for it to skyrocket back up and yeah, maybe it will hit 100m just like what the DS did but... I don't see that happening easily.

I am more willing to bet that the majority of those people that bought the PS4 and Xbox one are people who upgrade from their previous preferred system unlike what sony is saying how people are buying them instead. The fact that they based that on how there are new PS+ accounts isn't a good way of doing it as you never needed a PS+ account with the PS3. Yeah some will be new, but not the sheer amount that they claim. They are more just trying to make it sound like no one wants anything except the PS4 but by now, that is obviously not the case going by the sales as the sales are... back to what you'd normally see a console sell.

As for AAA titles... it is not that they fail, it is that they are becoming less and less common as they cost so much to make and a lot of time, or they are just rushed to give you pretty much the same game with recycled stuff to keep the cost down. In return, they just release DLC after DLC.

Another thing, It is not certain how long this gen will last but at the same time, technology is increasing at a rapid rate, faster than what it did at the start of last gen and with the rapid technology, it is possible that this gen could be done in 5 or 6 years (though it still could be longer) just so that the companies will not fall behind. If one of them moves ahead, it will kind of force the others to.

It seems like you know everything, like how only "core games" will be released from here on and how all AAA games will take more years to develop than before even more than when devs took the transition to HD gaming. Mobile gaming has never been a treat to home consoles and won't steal any exclusive, are you expecting GTA or Mortal Kombat exclusive on cell phones? how about FIFA 15?

Sony always delivers on games, is like 2007 all over again.