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Forums - Sales - 8th Gen Home Console sales will be closer to 5th than 6th

 

Do you think I am right?

Yes, you make a convincing argument 27 31.40%
 
No, You just look crazy 25 29.07%
 
Honestly I expect it to be close 20 23.26%
 
I suck at predictions this button is for me 13 15.12%
 
Total:85
CGI-Quality said:

killeryoshis said:

CGI-Quality said:
Roar_Of_War said:

PS4 isn't even doing good anymore, it's simply doing better than the competition (barring 3DS). 3DS and PS4 are average, okay. Maybe even a bit under.

 

What should the PS4 be doing, in July, as a 7 month old machine? Doing good compared to what?


 It is not doing good compared to Wii and is doing worse than PS2 at the moment. So I guess that's what he is comparing it to. 

Not doing as good as the Wii (an anomaly) or the PS2 (another anomaly) doesn't mean it's doing "bad". It's beating its predecessor and all competitors (this gen) during the same time frame. Plus, with just 7 months in, there's no telling how it will perform against the Wii in the long run. It won't catch the PS2 because, well.....it's the PS2.

Eh you got a point when you say it isn't doing bad when not comparing to the Wii or PS2. Compared to PS1 it is doing better but people do not want numbers to go down to numbers we have not seen in over a decade. The question is "Is it acceptable to do the worst numbers since 2000?" 14 years ago?  Just because it is beating its competitors does not mean it is selliing good. You could be the best sports player in an amature tournament but you will probably still suck. It is like having one eye in the kingdom of the blind.

No telling what will happen this generation? That's the point of making predictions! No facts are made yet but we can predict. Also it is never too early to make predictions. :D  



Tag:I'm not bias towards Nintendo. You just think that way (Admin note - it's "biased".  Not "bias")
(killeryoshis note - Who put that there ?)
Switch is 9th generation. Everyone else is playing on last gen systems! UPDATE: This is no longer true. 2nd UPDATE: I have no Switch 2. I am now behind

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KLXVER said:
Nah, a new generation has never sold less than the previous, so I think the trend will continue.

This is exactly the type of thing people were saying right before the 1929 stock market crash xD;



RavenXtra said:
KLXVER said:
Nah, a new generation has never sold less than the previous, so I think the trend will continue.

This is exactly the type of thing people were saying right before the 1929 stock market crash xD;


Really? I wasnt there, but good to know...





CGI said:

If the Wii and PS2 are the measuring sticks to success, I'd say it isn't doing "bad" at all. If these numbers are "unacceptable", then your expectations are unrealistic (considering the mentioned variables), which isn't adjacent to the PS4's current performance.

So basicly what I am getting is that PS1 sales levels are completely acceptable and Gen 6 and 7 were just anamolies. So it seems normal sales are 5th gen NOT 6th gen. If so than for now I will say sales are not bad and these sales are normal. However if 9th gen starts doing 4th gen numbers a re-evaluation will have to be done on what numbers are normal!



Tag:I'm not bias towards Nintendo. You just think that way (Admin note - it's "biased".  Not "bias")
(killeryoshis note - Who put that there ?)
Switch is 9th generation. Everyone else is playing on last gen systems! UPDATE: This is no longer true. 2nd UPDATE: I have no Switch 2. I am now behind

Biggest pikmin fan on VGchartz I won from a voting poll
I am not a nerd. I am enthusiast.  EN-THU-SI-AST!
Do Not Click here or else I will call on the eye of shining justice on you. 

Why would Xbox One sell worse than Xbox 360?



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KLXVER said:
RavenXtra said:
KLXVER said:
Nah, a new generation has never sold less than the previous, so I think the trend will continue.

This is exactly the type of thing people were saying right before the 1929 stock market crash xD;


Really? I wasnt there, but good to know...


The point is that you cannot have unlimited growth. The economic cycle alternates between recession and recovery for this reason.

http://vimeo.com/98082156

Back to consoles, the market is way more crowded than it has ever been with many alternatives to console gaming coming out all the time. I imagine that would at least be affecting the willingness to buy multiple consoles. 



No foreign sky protected me,
No stranger's wing shielded my face.
I stand as witness to the common lot,
survivor of that time, that place.

- From 'Requiem' by Anna Akhmatova

PS4 will fly off the shelves when games arrive and PS3/360 upgraders move onto their next console. It might not do PS2 numbers but it's going to be better than PS3 for certain.



SjOne said:
Why would Xbox One sell worse than Xbox 360?


It is doing GC numbers right now. It will take a big turn around to turn those numbers around. So unless there are some big games that IDK about it will no doubt in my mind sell lower. 

@CGI
I wanted to respond but I have no idea where you are heading.  So I am just going to say PS4 numbers are not bad but not special ether.



Tag:I'm not bias towards Nintendo. You just think that way (Admin note - it's "biased".  Not "bias")
(killeryoshis note - Who put that there ?)
Switch is 9th generation. Everyone else is playing on last gen systems! UPDATE: This is no longer true. 2nd UPDATE: I have no Switch 2. I am now behind

Biggest pikmin fan on VGchartz I won from a voting poll
I am not a nerd. I am enthusiast.  EN-THU-SI-AST!
Do Not Click here or else I will call on the eye of shining justice on you. 

You are smart because you're estimates aren't too far from mine.




8th gen predictions. (made early 2014)
PS4: 60-65m
WiiU: 30-35m
X1: 30-35m
3DS: 80-85m
PSV: 15-20m

I say more than 6th gen but less than 7th gen.

In all such gen wide predictions I think there is something most people seem to forget or exclude. Price.

Price is the main determinant of sales, and that sweet spot now is $299. In the time of the PS2 it was $199. It took the PS3/XB1 3 and 4yrs respectively to get to $299 (hard drive less 360 deosn't count) and that was when sales sky rocketed.

This gen is going to get to the $299 price point a lot sooner. I actually have it pegged for fall season next year. And this gen also has the benefits of having a number of games that if exclusive to the 8th gen can push hardware.

So my take on this is when the PS4/XB1 costs $299 and games like AC, CoD, FIFA, Madden, NBA2k15, GTA6 are all exclusive to the 8th gen sales will peak. And this peak will happen in the 8th gens 2nd year instead of the fourth year like the 7th.

The only way this doesn't happen is if MS somehow manages to close the gap worldwide this holiday season and is no more than 1-2M behind sony. But if PS4 gets a 5-7M lead over the XB1 by the end of this year and that lead grows to an 8-9M lead before E3 next year, you can pretty much guarantee that we will see a $300 XB1.