OttoniBastos said:
Because i'm pretty sure that PS3 first summer wasn't better than this! |
If the goal for this generation's leader is to beat the PS3 in sales, then yea, this means that sales are horrible. I'd like to remind you that PS3 is the worst selling Sony homeconsole.
Predictions for LT console sales:
PS4: 120M
XB1: 70M
WiiU: 14M
3DS: 60M
Vita: 13M
benji232 said:
If the goal for this generation's leader is to beat the PS3 in sales, then yea, this means that sales are horrible. I'd like to remind you that PS3 is the worst selling Sony homeconsole. |
Then compare it to the first summer of the PS1 or PS2, or the first summer of Xbox, or the first summer of the gamecube.
just don't compare it to last years numbers on last years consoles, as if nearly a decade of gaming library doesnt make a difference.
benji232 said:
If the goal for this generation's leader is to beat the PS3 in sales, then yea, this means that sales are horrible. I'd like to remind you that PS3 is the worst selling Sony homeconsole. |
The point is you can't compare the last year strong PS3 sales with the PS4 first summer in the market.
PS3 sold shit first year and ended 80+ million.
PS1 sold ok first year and ended with 100+million.
The mighty PS2 sold worse than PS4 at same timeframe and reached 150+millions.
| benji232 said: All the people who keep saying " Oh, all those doomsayers are ridiculous, were in the summer. It's normal". What you don't understand is that these numbers ARE horrible compared to PREVIOUS summers. Were not comparing summer sales with spring sales or holiday sales, these numbers are horrible when comparing them to previous summers. |
No, they're not. They're really, really not.
binary solo said:
We don't often see eye to eye. But on this occasion I couldn't agree more. If you want to assess how the generation is performing over all compared to last then you have to compare 1st with 1st, 2nd with 2nd etc. And hopefuly as students of the industry as a whole (not just mere fans of a particular brand looking to give free PR to our favoured consoles) we are interested in the health of the industry as a whole, not just who is outselling whom. So far the health of the console industry is not looking that flash. It's certainly not on a growth trajectory right now. I don't think unending gen on gen growth was ever sustainable, but as things stand this generation is looking like it's headed for a substantial drop. Last gen's total is in excess of 260 million for home consoles. This gen will be very lucky to break 200 million. -25% is too big of a contraction in a single generation. Though if we're seeing the beginning of the end of the traditional home console model (as I think we are) then it's probably a result that is to be expected. Ironically if there is one company that will stay with the traditional home console model, while the others move on to a post-console era, it would be Nintendo. If that turns out to be the case then how well Wii U does may not matter as long as Nintendo stays afloat as a company to be the last traditonal console maker standing. Their fate in this regard rests more on the fortunes of 3DS than Wii U. But there are too many people with their heads in the sand, all starry eyed because PS4 had an amazing 2013, and Xb one even did will until the new year. These people think there's going to be continued expansion. However the reality is more likely to be a reshuffle of market share between PS and XB (interestingly PS3+360 < PS2+Xb), and hopefuly not more than a 70% (but possibly a truly disasterous 80%) decrease from Wii-->WiiU. It is irrelevant that Wii was an anomaly. The fact of the matter is with that anomaly gone we are headed for a major decline in hardware sales for the generation, which in turn means a major decline in over all software sales, which in turn means major revenue decreases for everyone. While 3rd party software never sold brilliantly on Wii, the shear size of the Wii install base, and relatively low development costs, meant many 3rd parties released profitable games on that platform, including plenty of "non-casual" games that sold over a million. I don't always acknowledge it, but I do think dire predictions for Wii U need to have a caveat. It is possible (though I think it unlikely) that the blue ocean market who bought into Wii might just be waiting in the wings and will snap up Wii U when it hits the right price point. I give about a 10% probability of that happening though. It is legit to compare within brands though, if you want to guage the relative performance of the brand. But it is not a good basis for assessing the generation as a whole. |
Good thing we can agree sometimes atleast :). The thing is, I would personally (as an Xbox fan) love to say that X1 is ahead of 360 at the moment, but that would just be me trying to have blindfolds on. What some seem to miss, is that a general decline of this magnitude will also affect the market leader, since interest from 3rd parties for traditional consoles ill shrink, while other markets, like touch based gaming, rises. This may not be bad, but it is a reality we face.
This generation can still develop in unexpected ways, but I find it unlikely.my guess would be a decline from 260million to be somewhere between 140 to 180 miIlion.
binary solo said:
We don't often see eye to eye. But on this occasion I couldn't agree more. If you want to assess how the generation is performing over all compared to last then you have to compare 1st with 1st, 2nd with 2nd etc. And hopefuly as students of the industry as a whole (not just mere fans of a particular brand looking to give free PR to our favoured consoles) we are interested in the health of the industry as a whole, not just who is outselling whom. So far the health of the console industry is not looking that flash. It's certainly not on a growth trajectory right now. I don't think unending gen on gen growth was ever sustainable, but as things stand this generation is looking like it's headed for a substantial drop. Last gen's total is in excess of 260 million for home consoles. This gen will be very lucky to break 200 million. -25% is too big of a contraction in a single generation. Though if we're seeing the beginning of the end of the traditional home console model (as I think we are) then it's probably a result that is to be expected. Ironically if there is one company that will stay with the traditional home console model, while the others move on to a post-console era, it would be Nintendo. If that turns out to be the case then how well Wii U does may not matter as long as Nintendo stays afloat as a company to be the last traditonal console maker standing. Their fate in this regard rests more on the fortunes of 3DS than Wii U. But there are too many people with their heads in the sand, all starry eyed because PS4 had an amazing 2013, and Xb one even did will until the new year. These people think there's going to be continued expansion. However the reality is more likely to be a reshuffle of market share between PS and XB (interestingly PS3+360 < PS2+Xb), and hopefuly not more than a 70% (but possibly a truly disasterous 80%) decrease from Wii-->WiiU. It is irrelevant that Wii was an anomaly. The fact of the matter is with that anomaly gone we are headed for a major decline in hardware sales for the generation, which in turn means a major decline in over all software sales, which in turn means major revenue decreases for everyone. While 3rd party software never sold brilliantly on Wii, the shear size of the Wii install base, and relatively low development costs, meant many 3rd parties released profitable games on that platform, including plenty of "non-casual" games that sold over a million. I don't always acknowledge it, but I do think dire predictions for Wii U need to have a caveat. It is possible (though I think it unlikely) that the blue ocean market who bought into Wii might just be waiting in the wings and will snap up Wii U when it hits the right price point. I give about a 10% probability of that happening though. It is legit to compare within brands though, if you want to guage the relative performance of the brand. But it is not a good basis for assessing the generation as a whole. |
Sweet Jesus. With the anomaly gone the market is returning to normal. Not crashing and burning as some like to think. It's not called closing my eyes or burying my head in the sand; it's simple common sense. I honestly have no idea why people insist on believing the industry us on the brink of collapse when it's really, really not. Every summer people start predicting the death of consoles, then they shut their mouths as holiday sales skyrocket.
Guys, consoles have been around 30 Years. Consoles ain't going anywhere.
OttoniBastos said:
Because i'm pretty sure that PS3 first summer wasn't better than this! |
Xbox 360 first summer, never dopped below 70K.
Wii's first summer never dropped below 200K
PS3's first summer only twice dropped below 60K and had 3 or 4 weeks above 100K (first price cut I imagine).
Lowest aggregate launch aligned 1 week sales in the fisrt summer for gen 7 consoles: >330K
Same comparison for gen 8:
Wii U's first summer (sole 8th gen console on the market, like Xbox 360) lowest sales for a week was 18K, peak was 63K (only 5K above PS3's worst week)
PS4 lowest first summer week so far - 96 K, i.e. this week, and likely to drop some more.
Xb one's lowest summer week 36K albeit that is a bit of an abberation with the dumping of kinect happening the following wek and Xb one looking to be headed to a higher average weekly sales than that through the summer.
To date the lowest aggregate launch aligned 1 week sales first summer for gen 8 ~150K less than half gen 7's worst aggregate week. The best aggregate launch aligned 1st summer week for gen 8 (so far) is 270k if we allow the week Watchdogs launched to be included in Summer, which is actualy officially still spring, so the best gen 8 first summer week falls short o fthe worst gen 7 first summer week by 60K.
People are not sayig we are heading for a gen on gen decline for no reason and not just because Wii U is in the shitter.
Unless at least 2 of the console makers has a game changer coming along in the next couple of years (and VR is not it IMO) that will reinvigorate the console business a decline is absolutely where we're headed. Nothing any of them has shown to date indicates a gamechanger coming down the line. Nintendo hitched it's wagon to a tablet controller and is now scratching its head about what to do. MS hitched its wagon to Kinect 2.0 and has now abandoned it surprisingly quickly. Sony just made sure they didn't screw up the hardware and pricing and have benefitted well but haven't done anything to really excite the market beyond the first few months after launch.
“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell
"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."
Jimi Hendrix
who said this gen will increase,i don't remember this talk,i remember talk about this gen being the battle of the loyalists,
I smell like the dark forest of Dwemereth in the morning mist 
fanboy til i'm bankrupt
I haven't seen any bestseller charts in the US showing the Xbox one above the ps4
It's not hard evidence, but I think Vgchartz is overtracking x1 yet again
ChudStudly said:
Guys, consoles have been around 30 Years. Consoles ain't going anywhere. |
Well if you're saying that we are looking at an agggretate of something around gen 6's total sales (return to normal) then we are roughly in agreement. But there are plenty of people who believe we are looking at a further expansion of the home console hardware market this generation, and that just ain't happening. However if you think that dropping from 260 million install base (gen 7) back to <200 million install base is not a problem (and what that mans for the pace of console sales, which determines the annual health of the industry as a whole) then you do have at least some part of your head in the sand.
The gaming console as we know it has one or 2 generations left to run. Gaming ain't going no where, but what we game on is goig to change.
I think the next step is possibly tablets with a controller peripheral. You can see the convergence towards this happening. Most tablets have a HDMI port so connecting to TV is fine. Memory size on tablets is getting large enough to be able to download AAA games. Processing power in Tablets will soon exceed that of the 8th gen consoles. Cloud processing will develop with time, but perhaps not in time to be meaningful for Xb one. Game streaming is already a reality and will get better and more reliable, which will allow for forward compatibility as well as significantly reducing the need to download.
“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell
"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."
Jimi Hendrix
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