binary solo said:
We don't often see eye to eye. But on this occasion I couldn't agree more. If you want to assess how the generation is performing over all compared to last then you have to compare 1st with 1st, 2nd with 2nd etc. And hopefuly as students of the industry as a whole (not just mere fans of a particular brand looking to give free PR to our favoured consoles) we are interested in the health of the industry as a whole, not just who is outselling whom. So far the health of the console industry is not looking that flash. It's certainly not on a growth trajectory right now. I don't think unending gen on gen growth was ever sustainable, but as things stand this generation is looking like it's headed for a substantial drop. Last gen's total is in excess of 260 million for home consoles. This gen will be very lucky to break 200 million. -25% is too big of a contraction in a single generation. Though if we're seeing the beginning of the end of the traditional home console model (as I think we are) then it's probably a result that is to be expected. Ironically if there is one company that will stay with the traditional home console model, while the others move on to a post-console era, it would be Nintendo. If that turns out to be the case then how well Wii U does may not matter as long as Nintendo stays afloat as a company to be the last traditonal console maker standing. Their fate in this regard rests more on the fortunes of 3DS than Wii U. But there are too many people with their heads in the sand, all starry eyed because PS4 had an amazing 2013, and Xb one even did will until the new year. These people think there's going to be continued expansion. However the reality is more likely to be a reshuffle of market share between PS and XB (interestingly PS3+360 < PS2+Xb), and hopefuly not more than a 70% (but possibly a truly disasterous 80%) decrease from Wii-->WiiU. It is irrelevant that Wii was an anomaly. The fact of the matter is with that anomaly gone we are headed for a major decline in hardware sales for the generation, which in turn means a major decline in over all software sales, which in turn means major revenue decreases for everyone. While 3rd party software never sold brilliantly on Wii, the shear size of the Wii install base, and relatively low development costs, meant many 3rd parties released profitable games on that platform, including plenty of "non-casual" games that sold over a million. I don't always acknowledge it, but I do think dire predictions for Wii U need to have a caveat. It is possible (though I think it unlikely) that the blue ocean market who bought into Wii might just be waiting in the wings and will snap up Wii U when it hits the right price point. I give about a 10% probability of that happening though. It is legit to compare within brands though, if you want to guage the relative performance of the brand. But it is not a good basis for assessing the generation as a whole. |
Good thing we can agree sometimes atleast :). The thing is, I would personally (as an Xbox fan) love to say that X1 is ahead of 360 at the moment, but that would just be me trying to have blindfolds on. What some seem to miss, is that a general decline of this magnitude will also affect the market leader, since interest from 3rd parties for traditional consoles ill shrink, while other markets, like touch based gaming, rises. This may not be bad, but it is a reality we face.
This generation can still develop in unexpected ways, but I find it unlikely.my guess would be a decline from 260million to be somewhere between 140 to 180 miIlion.
