There nothing that leads me to believe that XB1 will do well in Japan. XB and 360 did bad there, XB1 is off to a bad start WW not seeing Japan as any different.
End of 2009 Predictions (Set, January 1st 2009)
Wii- 72 million 3rd Year Peak, better slate of releases
360- 37 million Should trend down slightly after 3rd year peak
PS3- 29 million Sales should pick up next year, 3rd year peak and price cut