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Forums - Gaming - How Much Will 8th Gen Consoles Sell In the Holiday Season?

Nintentacle said:

Well, PS3 sold 1.3 million launch year (November 19th-December 30th) according to VGChartz. In about the same time frame a year later (November 17th-December 29th), it sold 2.9 million.


Hmm... I guess.  I do wonder, though, does it simply rise in a linear fashion like that, or is it possible that each gen gets a larger percentage of its lifetime sales near the beginning because it has a larger established fanbase than last time?

Er... I didn't explain that well.  What I mean is that each generation has progressively more fans than the last.  Like, when the PS1 came out, there were no Playstation fans - they had to be acquired from scratch.  But come the PS2, there was now an established fanbase, many of whom would quickly adopt the new system.  Same thing with the PS3, except with an even bigger fanbase.  And so on.

My point is that, with each generation, there's a larger group of people itching to get the new console.  Could this result in successive generations having progressively bigger launches but more subdued sales spikes throughout their lifetimes?  Or does that fanbase still spread out more or less evenly over the course of the generation's lifetime?

These are just thoughts I'm throwing out for the sake of discussion.  I don't really know what kind of pattern the console market follows in this regard.  I just find it interesting to think about.



ColdFire - The man with no name.

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ColdFire said:
Nintentacle said:

Well, PS3 sold 1.3 million launch year (November 19th-December 30th) according to VGChartz. In about the same time frame a year later (November 17th-December 29th), it sold 2.9 million.


Hmm... I guess.  I do wonder, though, does it simply rise in a linear fashion like that, or is it possible that each gen gets a larger percentage of its lifetime sales near the beginning because it has a larger established fanbase than last time?

Er... I didn't explain that well.  What I mean is that each generation has progressively more fans than the last.  Like, when the PS1 came out, there were no Playstation fans - they had to be acquired from scratch.  But come the PS2, there was now an established fanbase, many of whom would quickly adopt the new system.  Same thing with the PS3, except with an even bigger fanbase.  And so on.

My point is that, with each generation, there's a larger group of people itching to get the new console.  Could this result in successive generations having progressively bigger launches but more subdued sales spikes throughout their lifetimes?  Or does that fanbase still spread out more or less evenly over the course of the generation's lifetime?

These are just thoughts I'm throwing out for the sake of discussion.  I don't really know what kind of pattern the console market follows in this regard.  I just find it interesting to think about.

It seems true for Xbox One, and mostly Wii U. They both had good launches, but so far have only had 1 real system seller.

I'm not too sure about PS4, though. It's only been below 100k weekly once.



PS4 numbers will obviously skyrocket due to the holiday season and will be the top seller almost every week, however I believe the X1 and especially the Wii U do have better and more marketable exclusives coming out this holiday. As a result, these 2 console's sales figures will increase by a greater percentage from their respective norms more-so than the ps4 will for the holidays. I believe the Wii U is outsell the PS4 the first week of December if that is the week Smash comes out. However, even that will be difficult feat with all the great multiplats hitting PS4. Xbox One will outsell them both the week The Master Chief Collection hits shelves in November. Gamer's win.



Smear-Gel said:
The Wii U has all its games this year coming out August to December, so it's gonna do well. Likely second place, though a man can dream for bigger.


Bob's Burgers :O I love that show :P I like your sig



what were some of the PS3 360 wii holiday sales ?
wondering whats the most any sold in nov/dec

PS4 will sale many million, depends on stock. X1 will put up a fight in NA but badly get out sold else where thus world wide. Wiiu might do mediocre everywhere but it all will add up to decent overall.



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BeElite said:
what were some of the PS3 360 wii holiday sales ?
wondering whats the most any sold in nov/dec

Wii sold the most consoles in the holiday season in 2009 with 10.2 million units.

360 sold the most in 2011 with 6.7 million units

PS3 sold the most in 2009 with 5.8 million units



Nintentacle said:
BeElite said:
what were some of the PS3 360 wii holiday sales ?
wondering whats the most any sold in nov/dec

Wii sold the most consoles in the holiday season in 2009 with 10.2 million units.

360 sold the most in 2011 with 6.7 million units

PS3 sold the most in 2009 with 5.8 million units


intresting.

PS4 is at a acceptable nuf 399 for these times has hype and posativity.  Could get higest holiday sales for any consoles... what would we call it second year  2nd holidays ? Likly will take lions share of overall sales.

Any guess what the holiday sales could be for the big 3 all lumped together??



BeElite said:
Nintentacle said:
BeElite said:
what were some of the PS3 360 wii holiday sales ?
wondering whats the most any sold in nov/dec

Wii sold the most consoles in the holiday season in 2009 with 10.2 million units.

360 sold the most in 2011 with 6.7 million units

PS3 sold the most in 2009 with 5.8 million units


intresting.

PS4 is at a acceptable nuf 399 for these times has hype and posativity.  Could get higest holiday sales for any consoles... what would we call it second year  2nd holidays ? Likly will take lions share of overall sales.

Any guess what the holiday sales could be for the big 3 all lumped together??



I'm guessing 10 million at the most.

Nintentacle said:

It seems true for Xbox One, and mostly Wii U. They both had good launches, but so far have only had 1 real system seller.

I'm not too sure about PS4, though. It's only been below 100k weekly once.


This is part of the reason I've been working on that chart.  I've been wanting to compare them directly against each other and see if there are any long-term trends or patterns from generation to generation.  Easier said than done, though.  This has been one of those projects that starts out with the naive assumption that it will be a quick job, only for the reality of how much work it is to quickly set in.  And before you know it, you're sitting there with your head in your hands, thinking "Why did I want to do this again?"



ColdFire - The man with no name.

I wonder what crushed Nintendo fan dreams taste like.
I can see no way how the Wii U could beat the X1 in the holidays.



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