How Much Will 8th Gen Consoles Sell In the Holiday Season?

[Nintentacle]

ColdFire said:

Nintentacle said:

Well, PS3 sold 1.3 million launch year (November 19th-December 30th) according to VGChartz. In about the same time frame a year later (November 17th-December 29th), it sold 2.9 million.

Hmm... I guess.  I do wonder, though, does it simply rise in a linear fashion like that, or is it possible that each gen gets a larger percentage of its lifetime sales near the beginning because it has a larger established fanbase than last time?

Er... I didn't explain that well.  What I mean is that each generation has progressively more fans than the last.  Like, when the PS1 came out, there were no Playstation fans - they had to be acquired from scratch.  But come the PS2, there was now an established fanbase, many of whom would quickly adopt the new system.  Same thing with the PS3, except with an even bigger fanbase.  And so on.

My point is that, with each generation, there's a larger group of people itching to get the new console.  Could this result in successive generations having progressively bigger launches but more subdued sales spikes throughout their lifetimes?  Or does that fanbase still spread out more or less evenly over the course of the generation's lifetime?

These are just thoughts I'm throwing out for the sake of discussion.  I don't really know what kind of pattern the console market follows in this regard.  I just find it interesting to think about.

It seems true for Xbox One, and mostly Wii U. They both had good launches, but so far have only had 1 real system seller.

I'm not too sure about PS4, though. It's only been below 100k weekly once.