....mgs 4

Gears 2 will sell more copies, but MGS4 will have a higher attach rate.

It's possible that GoW2 will fail to live up to it's predecessor, and/or that MGS4 will outsell prior installments on much more popular consoles, but, with nothing to go on yet but the names, I have to say that GoW has the advantage.

Gears of War has still yet to equal the sales of MGS 2, though it could certainly do so at some point. MGS 3 didn't sell quite as well because people were turned off from their experience with MGS2. It still sold 3.96 million plus however many copies of Subsistence were sold (VGChartz only has Japanese date for that version).

It looks like MGS 4 will be coming out in June, worldwide, if a leaked advertisement is to be believed. The PS3 could be around 12 million at that point (random guess, someone else can figure out sales rates - could easily be much higher thanks to GTA IV) and I could easily see MGS 4 reaching 4 million before the year is out and reaching lifetime sales of 5.

The real wild card is how well Gears of War 2 will do. Will Microsoft launch another super huge advertising campaign? If so, GeOW 2 could easily sell another 5 million plus.

I think it will be close but after some pricecuts this year and the expansion from GTA IV, I think Gears 2 will take it home.

A lot rides on MGS, though. I know a lot of people (myself included) were turned off and absolutley loathed MGS2 & 3, but if Kojima pulls his convoluted head out of his ass and actually creates a story worth paying attention to in MGS4, we could have a real winner on our hands.

At least he fixed my other pet peeve, that ridiculously stupid control system in 1, 2, & 3. Ugh.

MGS4 will make from 4.0 to 5.5. mln.
gears already did 5 mln.

gears will be 2nd gears game in this generation.
that means, that gears fans will buy geow, and those who didn`t like geow, probably won`t buy geow 2.

so it`s hard to tell who will sell better.

My money on mgs4, thnx to japan and some stronger europe love.

 I understand loathing 2... but who the hell hated 3? 3 was an awesome return to greatness. The whole thing seems analagous to the Devil May Cry series to me. Amazing first game that sells awesome. Crap second game that still sells well because of momentum from the first. Much improved third game that doesn't sell as well as it should because of how crappy the second game was. Fourth game looks like it could outsell the first.

 I honestly think that MGS4 can match the sales of the first two games, which each sold about 5.5 million each before expansions/revisions, AFAIK.

 Gears of War 2 is the wild card. I think it'll do just as well as the first game but it has the potential to do even better, at which point it would outsell MGS4.

The story in 3 was better but I still didn't think it was great.

The control system in 3 is what turned me off the game. In 2004, those tacked-on FPS controls and the overhead view were completely unacceptable. Splinter Cell had far better controls three years earlier than that.

But, like I said, at least it appears that Kojima finally abandoned that 1996 control scheme.

MGS1 = 6 million

MGS2 -7 million

 do the math. MGS3 was released at a bad time.

Short term = Gears. MGS4 may have a shot long term though.