I think it will be close but after some pricecuts this year and the expansion from GTA IV, I think Gears 2 will take it home.
A lot rides on MGS, though. I know a lot of people (myself included) were turned off and absolutley loathed MGS2 & 3, but if Kojima pulls his convoluted head out of his ass and actually creates a story worth paying attention to in MGS4, we could have a real winner on our hands.
At least he fixed my other pet peeve, that ridiculously stupid control system in 1, 2, & 3. Ugh.

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