@kingofwale: Arn't both these games tps? Arn't both of these the biggest exclusive titles each platfrorm has to offer(assuming no GT this year)?

I wasn't joking actually, a lot of past sales comparisons ended up being a Wii title vs 360+PS3.

Anyway, wouldn't it be a fairer comparison to use attach rate of the title?

MGS4 easily, the game has a larger fan audience. There are people that didnt even know about metal gear and are getting MGS4 because its a killer title.

MGS3 did 4M on the PS2, and it's pretty safe to say MGS4 won't do as much. MGS fans are numerous and loyal, but there will be far less of the people who'll buy it just because it's a great game on a system they own, and a lot of the people who like the series are perfectly happy waiting for the remake to hit the 360 and/or PC in a year or so. I expect the PS3 version of MGS4 to end up around 3M lifetime.

Gears 1 did 5M, but it had the advantage of being the first excellent shooter on the 360, as well as bringing something new to the genre. The sequel has way more competition, and it remains to be seen how innovative it'll be. I'm guessing sales will be at least somewhat lower than with the original, but still higher than MGS4.

@Parokki: Look at the FF's sales patterns. that nulifies your MGS3 point. Plus Mgs3 had halo 2 and gta to compete with when it launched. MGS4 will be ps3's first excellent stealth shooter.

@Moneybags

Yea but MGS4 will be on a system with a LOT less consoles.

It sold 4 million on 100 million console, i dont see it selling that on a 11-15 million console when the game launches

I'm going to go with gears 2

@Bingoo

Why did FFX sell more than FFXII or VII than IX. You are putting too much faith in install base and not enough in fan base and first next gen wow factor.

Id have to go with Gears 2 only because there are 7 million more potential buyers.

I'll be getting both 

@friedtofu

Mgs4 has more worldwide appeal. Plus that 7 million gap is closing day by day and will probably be gone in couple years.