Twilord said:
Dr.Henry_Killinger said:
Whether or not the WIi U will suddenly outsell the PS4, or vice versa is irrelevant. Fact is, there is no reason to think that the PS4's sales will slow while the Wii U's will increase.
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Hype can fade, which would hurt the PS4 sales; exclusives stack up, which will help the Wii-U most this year.
To say the PS4 is selling off of hype is disengious. Why would PS4 hype die and Wii U hype increase. Not to mention the Wii U has a year and half worth of exclusives over it.
---You're absolutely right that the Wii-U has a much larger back-catalogue available to it, and once the 'excitement' about the PS4 ends (and again, props to Sony for keeping that so strong, the back-catalogue's may find themselves being compared more and more. Especially with Mario Kart (as one of the most popular series in gaming) and Smash Bros (as possibly the only console exclusive series to have an installment that was actually a game-sized mod for another game in the series become as popular as many regular games) having the cultural resonance they've earned.---
Dr.Henry_Killinger said:
especially when you consider the age, 3rd party suppport, and popular appeals of the consoles.
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The age is sorta irrelevant compared to what games are on the console; I'll give you third parties but right now much of their stuff is still available on last generation. Also the "popular appeal" is great and all, but when hype fades thats not gonna matter as much - I'll grant you its pretty damn awesome Sony have worked their hype so well and that the PS4 will dominate 2015, but "popular appeal" is subjective and extremely malleable with the right titles, not something that gets built into a console.
Age is typically popular. The Wii U is rare in that not only is it selling bad despite being the first on the market, but it has also gotten outsold globally in less then 5 months by the competition.
---Yeah, its got a lot of ground to make up if it wants to win change its image enough to truly succeed; but I'd argue it has the goods to do so. Thats actually what my whole argument amounts to.---
Popular Appeal =/= hype. Popular Appeal is what lead the Wii to victory last gen. This gen, the PS4 is known as the gamer's console, that's popular appeal. Hype is only really a factor in the first few months of a products life, we are in 2014. There is no way to spin the PS4's sucess.
---So it appeals to the masses because it appeals to the masses? In theory that could back-fire badly, but in my opinion, it probably won't. Atleast not by enough to really skew it in 2014 and it'll actually starting living up to its reputation for the most part in 2015 so I wouldn't worry anyway. I think I might get one in 2015 depending on a few key variables.---
Dr.Henry_Killinger said:
3.7 million in 6 months versus 1 million in 6 months. Even selling twice that the remaining 6 months for a total of 3 mil ytd, it will have yet to pass the benchmark set by the PS4 up till now, let alone the remaining 6 months the PS4 has.
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The Wii-U sold that with all of one game this year. Donkey Kong was never gonna be a real system seller despite Nintendo's misguided beliefs (I own a Wii-U and didn't bother with it), what they have scheduled for the rest of this year however is a damn promising line-up. Again its a matter of having the right games.
The fact that W101 is 7th on Amazon means that the idea that only this year's worth of games is selling any console is ridiculous. It works for the PS4 and XB1 cause they pretty much only had their launch games and indie releases, but the Wii U released in 2012, its was selling at its baseline because of its library.
---I'm no gambler but I'd bet good money that the game rose up in the charts recently, because Mario Kart represented a system seller and the console was itself reaching a critical threshold. I'm not saying the back library won't help it, I'm saying its the back library and the excellent immeniently upcoming library working together that will help the Wii-U.---
Dr.Henry_Killinger said:
I.e. thats 12 months(being generous here) of Wii U failing to outsell 6 months of PS4. This is even assuming the PS4 dropped off the face of the planet this month and stopped sellling entirely. Even for the sake of argument, if XB1 followed this hypothetical wii U path and sold 4.5 million consoles this ytd, outselling the PS4's current total by about 0.8 milliion, that still leaves a global gap of half a million between the 2.
This is even if the PS4 sold 0 units between now and January 1st. There is even less justification for this then their is that the Wii U sales will increase significantly. And yet the PS4 selling poorly is a prime factor in these "calculations".
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My caculation puts both the Wii-U and PS4 as selling the same amount (well nearly) from now on... admittedly the more math I think on it the more I feel like I might have under-estimated the Wii-U by too much and even underestimate the PS4 a little but still.
I'll let you have a say on whether I post a new estimate or not.
Which makes more sense to you, A or B.
A. 10 Million Wii-U and 12 Million PS4.
B. 12 Million Wii-U and 13 Million PS4.
Neither, the situation with the Wii U is that it is behaving like the XB1, only boosted by system sellers. If that is the case, there is little reason to believe the Wii U will sell at the same rate as the PS4. A is only more reasonable because at the same rate the gap would be maintained, if not increased.
---I really wish you hadn't put down a discuss worthy argument here because I told my myself that if you said 'neither' I'd put the Wii-U and PS4 as 12 Million for absolutely no logical reason. You had to ruin it by being mature about your reasoning. Hahahah!---
---Many of the games that people bought a PS4 for have been all but confirmed as coming in 2015 at the soonest. I think that will effect the reputation of the machine. Thus causing some, potentially minor if played well, slow down. But the gap between the PS4 and Wii-U isn't gonna be effected so much by mistakes on Sony's part as much as by Nintendo finally having a good time of things.---
| Dr.Henry_Killinger said:
The PS4 was predicted to fail prior to release. What makes you think that now makes it any more likely to happen?
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Who the hell said the PS4 would fail? I said that its first year after its launch isn't going to be its strongest and that the Wii-U is looking damn sweet this year. You've seen the "Who Will Win E3" thread I made; check the votes if you don't think Nintendo is set to actually start making this year count!
Revisionist history. I could find the threads but anyone who has been here for more than a month will know what I'm talking about. The predictions went along something like this "Because of the PS3, the PS4 will flop. Because of the Wii, the Wii U will be first again."
---I totally mispoke, I meant 'who since launch' has. Because I sure as hell haven't said the PS4 is gonna fail in this conversation. Total nee-jerk reaction to feeling like words were being put in my mouth. My bad if you thought that was the implication as obviously all consoles have prophets of doom pre-launch but my intention was to point out that, as you've agreed, the 12 million I said would be damn good for the PS4.---
Just because I think I'm being generous by saying the PS4 will also pull off four million more (in half a year) than its current sales doesn't I'm discounting it as a console. Though it does explain why people seem to be getting so aggressive.'
A generous, albiet rough estimate would be. 12 million PS4, 8 Million WIi U, 6 million (XB1), this is ofc assuming that the PS4 sells at the same rate, and the XB1 and Wii U sell at twice the rate for the rest of the year.
---The Xbox One's is, in my opinion, unlikely to increase that sharply - unless the version without Kinect goes crazy and sells to fans of the originally so swiftly as to act as a 'mini-relaunch'... which is what my original estimate of 8 Million for the Xbox One was based on. Despite my personally thinking that ditching the Kinect was an, albeit it worth it, bad PR move.---
---As for your Wii-U estimate, it'd be more generous than many are being to say that the Wii-U's baseline is going to fully double (entirely possible now that it is getting games again), but do you honestly think that Mario Kart and Smash Bros won't ATLEAST represent an increase of another 2 Million between them? Cause if you do accept that as highly probably then you can take the Wii-U goes to 10 million. Like I said.---
---We can atleast agree on the estimate for PS4. So we can pretty much leave it out from this point onwards. We've pretty much confirmed the Wii-U is the topic of interest here for this debate.---
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