Here's the issue:
MS needs money. In order to get money, that have to not only sell games, but move hardware as well.
Bill Gates already said that the central battleground is holiday 2007. MS by far has the best lineup of holiday games (not saying Wii or PS3 is bad), but they have the biggest # of titles guarenteed to do obviously well. Now, with so much at stake, plus the fact the 360 is making money now (and should goto 65nm by then, therefore increasing profitability), its entirely impossible that they not drop the price.
IMO, we'll see a price drop in September or October. Personally, with flegling 360 sales in the US, I'd drop the friggin' price in 3 weeks when Forza hits.
The 360 hasn't had a US price drop yet, in every other market it's had a drop at some point. MS wasn't afraid to drop the price and pack Blue Dragon in Japan, why not do it in the US.
IMO, the Wii should pass the 360 w/w sales wise in September, but the 360 should easily come back due to huge sales globally (with a major YOY increase in all markets due to LO, H3 and GTAIV) to re-take the lead till Febuary or March.