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Forums - Nintendo - Prediction: Mario Kart 8 is top selling Wii U game at end of year

 

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Yes 134 93.71%
 
No 9 6.29%
 
Total:143
Twilord on 03 June 2014
gergroy said:
Twilord said:
gergroy said:

Even if the next call of duty sold 25% of what ghosts did, it would still out sell mario kart.  Of course, there is no way the series is going decline anywhere near that much... Anything more than a 20% decline is unrealistic....

 

Mario Kart comes with a free game, which secures more purchases until that deal ends at the end of July. 

Assuming the overall sales stabilizes at 20% of the launch weekend every day while that deal is on (easier than having potentially exponentional growth starting this week given Mario Kart's reliance on word-of-mouth).

1,200,000 / 20% =  240,000
240,000 x 60

14,400,000 + 1,200,000
15,600,000


(LIFE TO DATE OF GHOSTS: 1,770,000 XO + 7,950,000 PS3 + 8,660,000 X360 + 160,000 WU + 550,000 Win + 2,250,000 PS4) = 21,340,000

80% of 21,340,000 (presumed active sales, games like CoD and Mario Kart are both nightmares for looking back, they sell you long-time, as it were.)
17,072,000 

20% of 17,072,000 (series decline assumption)
3,414,400

17,072,000 - 3,414,400
13,657,600

 

For simplicity lets say that COD's being multi-platform simply has the same as Mario Kart being released so much earlier on year end sales.

woh, so you are saying that mk8 is going to sell  300% more than the wii u hardware itself??  That is impressive my friend, very impressive

Honestly, the biggest barrier to mk8's continues sales growth is the install base of the wii u itself.  It certainly isn't going to sell 20% of its opening weekend on a daily basis...


Obviously those stats are likely to be exaggerated but if any event/year is likely to double the Wii-U's hardware base its this one so atleast 10,000,000 wouldn't be that insanely unlikely, in my opinion - also add to that the fact I was probably being very generous with my estimate of 80% of the last CoD's life-to-date sales being sold before year-end and you still end up with a comparable result (in my opinion). 



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drake_tolu on 03 June 2014

I think Mario Kart 8 will sold more of 5,000,000 on the end of year... i don't know that Mario Bros U will sorpassed this number.



gergroy on 03 June 2014
Twilord said:
gergroy said:

woh, so you are saying that mk8 is going to sell  300% more than the wii u hardware itself??  That is impressive my friend, very impressive

Honestly, the biggest barrier to mk8's continues sales growth is the install base of the wii u itself.  It certainly isn't going to sell 20% of its opening weekend on a daily basis...


Obviously those stats are likely to be exaggerated but if any event/year is likely to double the Wii-U's hardware base its this one so atleast 10,000,000 wouldn't be that insanely unlikely, in my opinion - also add to that the fact I was probably being very generous with my estimate of 80% of the last CoD's life-to-date sales being sold before year-end and you still end up with a comparable result (in my opinion). 

well, even if the wii u hardware base did double, you are still talking about 83% attach rate... that just won't happen unless mario kart is bundled with every single wii u sold from now on AND  it sells 3 million more to the existing hardware base.  It is just way too high of a prediction, in my opinion.  I think realistically Mario Kart could be around 4-5 million by the end of the year.  Which is AMAZING for an install base that small.  

still, think what you want, just know that you will most likely be wrong...  heck, watch dogs is already 3 million ahead of it too...



Twilord on 03 June 2014
gergroy said:
Twilord said:
gergroy said:

woh, so you are saying that mk8 is going to sell  300% more than the wii u hardware itself??  That is impressive my friend, very impressive

Honestly, the biggest barrier to mk8's continues sales growth is the install base of the wii u itself.  It certainly isn't going to sell 20% of its opening weekend on a daily basis...


Obviously those stats are likely to be exaggerated but if any event/year is likely to double the Wii-U's hardware base its this one so atleast 10,000,000 wouldn't be that insanely unlikely, in my opinion - also add to that the fact I was probably being very generous with my estimate of 80% of the last CoD's life-to-date sales being sold before year-end and you still end up with a comparable result (in my opinion). 

well, even if the wii u hardware base did double, you are still talking about 83% attach rate... that just won't happen unless mario kart is bundled with every single wii u sold from now on AND  it sells 3 million more to the existing hardware base.  It is just way too high of a prediction, in my opinion.  I think realistically Mario Kart could be around 4-5 million by the end of the year.  Which is AMAZING for an install base that small.  

still, think what you want, just know that you will most likely be wrong...  heck, watch dogs is already 3 million ahead of it too...


Comparing Watch Dog sales to Mario Kart at the moment is like comparing Wii-U sales to Xbox One sales at the moment... its entirely possible for it to stay ahead but a large part of the current gap is due to time between launches.



AZWification on 03 June 2014

This is guaranteed to happen unless New Super Bundle Bros U suddenly starts selling very well!



                
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gergroy on 03 June 2014
Twilord said:
gergroy said:

well, even if the wii u hardware base did double, you are still talking about 83% attach rate... that just won't happen unless mario kart is bundled with every single wii u sold from now on AND  it sells 3 million more to the existing hardware base.  It is just way too high of a prediction, in my opinion.  I think realistically Mario Kart could be around 4-5 million by the end of the year.  Which is AMAZING for an install base that small.  

still, think what you want, just know that you will most likely be wrong...  heck, watch dogs is already 3 million ahead of it too...


Comparing Watch Dog sales to Mario Kart at the moment is like comparing Wii-U sales to Xbox One sales at the moment... its entirely possible for it to stay ahead but a large part of the current gap is due to time between launches.


Three days???  You think mario kart would be at 4 million if it came out three days earlier?



DevilRising on 03 June 2014

Watch_Dogs sold a lot because of (arguably undeserved) hype, and Gamestop preorder phenomenon for those type of games. But I think MK8 will have a much longer tail, and stronger legs.



radishhead on 03 June 2014

Even I wouldn't bet against this!



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Faxanadu on 03 June 2014
Pavolink said:
Well, that doesn't looks like an achievement.

Isnt there an achievemnt for like "hey, you managed to put the disk into the console!"? Its that kind of achievement.



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Experimental42 on 03 June 2014

I'll make a bolder prediction, all in good fun.

The Luigi Death stare will go viral and continue to keep sales going well. Mario Kart TV will end up being Nintendo's next lightning in a bottle thing and they'll probably try to implement it in more of their competitive titles down the road, like Mario Party Minigames, Smash Bros, Mario SportHere.

By the end of the generation we'll look back at the Wii U as at least being a sleeper hit and the household's #2 console.