I think it's the opposite, it will be replaced around its 5th anniversary. DS got 6 years but that's an anomaly because it sold far, far more.

Beyond that, Nintendo has thrown just about every franchise at the 3DS they can already by the time the end of this year rolls around. 

The huge drop in sales is because of smartphones/tablets, leaving the system out to dry artificially is not going to help Nintendo it's just going to ruin any momentum they would have otherwise. 

Nintendo just needs games. The 3DS has already won its generation. Nintendo needs to focus on getting back in the black. The 3DS is a cash register so no need to replace it yet. Just let the 3DS print money and focus on the Wii U. Make games for it, but just let it just go off and sell.

Maybe... But it needs third party games then unless Nintendo wants to put like Metroid on there

Would be cool if it lasts a long time though

To be honest in hindsight I think both the DS and Wii were left on the market without successors for too long.

DS should've been replaced in 2010 and Wii in 2011 and they should've been better prepared (software planning) for both transitions. Their brand momentum was hurt by waiting so long, Wii in particular. 

In this day and age you can't leave a product out like that for so long, and in Nintendo's case I think it was doubly damaging because they were relying much more on casual players ... suddenly smartphones/tablets show up and they seem much more exciting ... they are refreshed more frequently and have far more game/app releases all the time, it just feels like a much more dynamic, exciting ecosystem to the casual layman who doesn't care about playing "deep" games. 

I disagree. They need to put out games to farm their userbase. Trying to create a install base will only be harder from now on, at least for a while. There is no reason to rush to the next handheld, as long as they can put games on 3DS, even new IP.

They are releasing games for the 3DS, as many as can reasonably be expected, and they have already spent most of their big-gun IPs. 

To the average person who isn't that into games though, I don't blame them for looking at the smartphone/tablets as being exciting while the 3DS line looks tired and outdated ... the hardware and business model is very dated by 2014 standards. 

i im a little worried about upcoming 3ds games.

for 2014/15 its ok. we will have pokemon rs remake and z, mh4g, probably majoras, persona q, smash...
and i expect figurine games for 2015.

but after 2015, no big games seems to appear in 3ds.
i hope im wrong.


--
hope thats rumors that nintendo is making unity works in 3ds are right. at least, lots of indies would go to 3ds.

I kinda agree, they should have never released DSi instead just add all those new features to 3DS which would have made it feel more like an upgrade, also i would have done away with 3D from the get go. Same goes for Motion Plus, it should have been delayed/improved and been the standard controller for Wii U with the Gamepad being an add on 2 years later.

Super DS-June 2010

Super Wii-November 2010

I think there's still quite a few 3DS games coming anyway so there's not a big need to worry ...

Youkai Watch 2 (and Yokai Watch for Western markets)
New Super Mario Bros. 3 (?) - NSMB2 team has been free for a long time.
Pokemon Z
Dragon Quest XI - 2nd half 2015 (?)
Monster Hunter 4G
Zelda: Majora's Mask 3D
Great Detective Pikachu
Big Nintendo 3DS title (to be unveiled at E3 developer conference)

There probably will be more from Japanese third parties. Kinda surprised that the 3DS hasn't gotten any Final Fantasy remakes yet for example.

Even if a new Nintendo portable shows up for say March/April 2016, odds are it will be fairly ambitious in hardware scope and may need to cost $200-$220 at launch.

That means the 3DS will have to stick around for a couple more years anyway as the low budget option ($99-$129).

It seems like 3DS has quite big droughts between games in the west. Or maybe I haven't been paying enough attention to it.